2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Assembly

Sep 21

This part of the preview includes a district-by-district breakdown of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Assembly. That includes all 99 races.

For our preview of the Senate, go here.

2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Senate

Sep 22

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Go to MyVote Wisconsin, find your district, see what’s on your ballot, and make a plan to vote.

Taking a look at the full map in the Wisconsin State Assembly is revealing. It shows how the political geography of the state works.

If you were to organize the state’s Assembly districts by least competitive to most competitive, it would go like this:

First, you’d have the ultra-blue seats in Madison and Milwaukee, places where Democrats at the top of the ticket can win by huge margins — 50 points or more. The most left-leaning district in the state, based on 2024 election numbers, is the 76th, located on the isthmus in Madison — currently represented by Francesca Hong — which went about 90%-10% for Tammy Baldwin in the most recent race for U.S. Senate. There are a few more districts in Madison, and a few others in Milwaukee — largely in majority-Black neighborhoods — where Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin each won by 60+ point margins.

Then, you have a few seats where Democrats win by margins of 35-to-50 percentage points. Those include some majority-Hispanic districts on Milwaukee’s south side, along with several Dane County seats.

At that point, getting slightly more competitive along this spectrum, is where the Republican-held seats emerge. The group of “safe Republican” seats is the largest category — an ocean of red in suburban, exurban, northwoods and rural areas across the state. These are places where Republicans routinely win by margins of 20-to-40 percentage points. A few go beyond that — the most pro-Trump district in the state is District 59, the furthest Milwaukee exurbs into rural eastern Wisconsin, where the president won by about a 48-point margin — but there are dozens of reliably red districts across the state.

There are 31 districts that Trump won by between 20% and 40%. That’s close to a third of the state. This is the base of support upon which Republican majorities have been built. There are scant few blue counterparts to this, just three seats where Democrats won by between 20-to-40-point margins.

There are also about a dozen Republican-held districts where top-of-the-ticket candidates win by margins in the teens. These include some suburban districts that have been trending toward Democrats, a few western Wisconsin districts, and several others scattered around the state. But Republican-leaning districts are more likely to be ones won by numbers more like 65%-35% than by 55%-45%.

Then, moving a bit more competitive — but still typically favoring one party; in this case, Democrats — there are about 20 or so districts that Democrats typically win by somewhere between 5-to-15-point margins. These often include mid-size cities, and are hugely consequential, and often overlooked, areas of the state.

Mid-size cities in Wisconsin — think those with a population between about 50,000 (Sheboygan) to 105,000 (Green Bay) — are often represented by Democrats. Democratic votes don’t just come from Milwaukee and Madison; the majority of statewide votes for Democrats actually come from outside those two cities. These mid-size blue cities, and the roughly one-third of voters in “Safe R” districts who vote for Democrats, are among the biggest reasons why Wisconsin remains a purple state.

Then, there are the real battlegrounds. Brown County and Neenah-Menasha in the northeast. La Crosse and surrounding areas. The southern suburbs in Milwaukee County. Wausau. The Eau Claire area and Chippewa Valley, now extended west toward the Twin Cities. District 51 in southwestern Wisconsin, specifically. These are the parts of the state that will ultimately determine the Assembly majority — and perhaps whether or not Democrats can win a trifecta.

Republicans have controlled the Assembly for 30 of the last 32 years. From 2012 to 2024, they did so with 60 or more seats, under egregiously gerrymandered maps. New maps helped that majority shrink to 54 to 45 in the 2024 election — a 10-seat pickup from the near-supermajority that Republicans drew themselves in 2022 redistricting. But unlike their counterparts in the Senate, Assembly Democrats did not win all of their targeted races. The Democratic candidate lost by 220 votes in the 88th; 364 in the 53rd. Republican State Rep. Todd Novak defied the numbers once again in the 51st. Both swing seats in Milwaukee County went for the Republican incumbent.

As much as incumbency is a major factor at the top of the ticket in Wisconsin elections, it’s an even bigger deal in downballot races. Going through this exercise, district-by-district, it’s astonishing the degree to which Assembly Republicans out-perform the top of the ticket, defeating their Democratic opponents.

And unlike in the State Senate, many Republican incumbents are sticking around to run again in 2026. Yes, Robin Vos is headed for the exit, as are swing seat representatives Jessie Rodriguez and Dean Kaufert, but other strong incumbents like Bob Donovan, Todd Novak, Shannon Zimmerman, and Patrick Snyder who are running again offer a big boost to Republicans’ overall balance-of-power calculus.

So, while Democrats have their best chance to flip the Assembly in more than 15 years, their road to victory is still a challenging one. By our count, Republicans are favored in 49 districts, meaning that Democrats would need to go three-for-three in the “Toss Up” seats in order to win a one-seat majority.

Each of those seats, too, have Republican incumbents — as do the next three “Lean R” seats where Democrats are actively competing. So, in order for Democrats to climb this mountain and topple the longstanding Republican Assembly majority, they’d need to defeat at least three incumbents across six districts. This is not out of the question, but considering the overall electoral performance of incumbents in the Assembly, it’s a tall task.

Our forecast here at The Recombobulation Area suggests the most likely outcome for the legislature is that Democrats flip the Senate, but Republicans hold the Assembly.

Democrats are likely to make gains in the Assembly, and further shrink the Republican majority. There are five seats in the Assembly that were won by both Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin in the 2024 election — and there’s also one Trump-Baldwin seat, in the 85th in Wausau. Two of those now have open seats, and Democrats are favored to flip both of them. Winning those and holding all other seats would bring the total number of Democrats to 47 — still three away from a majority.

Twelve years of gerrymandering and 30 years of near-continuous control is a lot to dig out of. It’s clearly going to take more than one election cycle, and it might take more than two. And while Democrats might have an on-balance advantage this year, Robin Vos is still reportedly running things at the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC), which has out-fundraised its Democratic counterpart, according to the latest publicly available data.

The tantalizing trifecta for Democrats in Wisconsin is within reach. A Senate flip seems very possible. Any statewide election in Wisconsin is close to 50-50, but David Crowley certainly has a chance to win the race for governor. But because of how well Republican incumbents have performed over the years in the Assembly, the GOP is a slight favorite to win a slim majority. But in all likelihood, any majority either way is going to come down to just a few seats.

A few years ago, such a statement was impossible. Battlegrounds and genuine competition were gerrymandered out of existence. Now, there’s a realistic possibility for Democrats to win a majority. That’s a goal worth fighting for. And if there’s a year for it to happen, it could very well be this one. And if that were to happen, Robin Vos’ final act in state government would be to hand the Speaker’s gavel to a Democrat. Now that would be something.

But any majority is built one seat at a time. Every last one of these 99 districts matter in their own unique way. And if Democrats are able to unseat a few incumbents and win an Assembly majority, it would transform the state of Wisconsin in ways we haven’t even begun to realize.

So, let’s get to it. Here is The Recombobulation Area’s district-by-district preview of all 99 upcoming elections in the Wisconsin State Assembly.

As per tradition, we’ve broken this down by category, but given the familiar nomenclature of the prognosticator class, here is the breakdown in the more familiar format along the political spectrum:

Safe D(26)-Likely D(12)-Lean D(7)-Toss Up(3)-Lean R(3)-Likely R(2)-Safe R(44)

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Recombobulation Area Overall Rating: LEAN R

DISTRICTS

The toss-up races (3)

Assembly District 51

Candidates:

Ben Gruber (Democratic)
Todd Novak (Republican)
Nathan Tataje (American Solidarity Party)

Incumbent: Todd Novak (2015-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+3.5, Baldwin+7.8

2024 results: Novak 51.7% - Grabe 48.3%

Novak+3.4

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Todd Novak was first elected to the State Assembly in 2014 by a margin of just 65 votes. In just about every election cycle since, he has been in an extremely close race, but managed to squeak by with a narrow victory. In five of six races, he’s won by a margin of less than 5%. Three of those wins have come by less than 1,000 total votes. New district lines in 2024 made him more vulnerable to defeat than ever, but he once again defied the odds, and in a district that Tammy Baldwin carried by a nearly 8-point margin, Novak won by a comfortable (for him) 3.4%.

The national environment this year and the larger partisan lean of his district suggests that Novak is facing his most difficult test yet in his bid for re-election. But he’s more battle-tested than most, having been in several tough races before. It’s to the point where I’m almost expecting him to again out-run the top of the ticket and win yet another narrow victory in a toss-up contest.

Novak is the Chair of the Assembly Committee on Local Government, and was the mayor of Dodgeville from 2012 to 2024. He is also the first openly gay Republican elected to the state legislature.

The Democratic challenger in this race is a formidable one. Ben Gruber is a former DNR conservation warden, firefighter and paramedic. He’s talked about health care in his campaign, telling UpNorthNews that “we’re approaching a real crisis point” when it comes to rural emergency services in the district.

Gruber was also part of an important ruling earlier this year involving the Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The Wisconsin Employment Relations Commission ruled that “two of the three members of the warden’s union were likely retaliated against by the DNR due to their advocacy on behalf of employees,” according to a report from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Gruber, the former president of Conservation Wardens Local 1215, was one of those members. He also won a legal case after being fired in 2020, and his is one of several stories wardens discussed with the JS for its in-depth reporting on a “toxic culture” in the conservation warden program. Perhaps Gruber has what it takes to win some tough battles, too.

There’s going to be a third-party candidate in this race, too, with the American Solidarity Party, and it’s hard to see how that might impact a race like this one. This party describes itself as a “Christian democratic party” that is anti-abortion and more economically liberal.

This might be the single most important race on the map in the Assembly. It has an outsized level of importance on determining so many things about Wisconsin’s future. And it’s hard to see how Democrats can win control of the Assembly without winning this race in District 51 and finally unseating Todd Novak. The opportunity is there. Can Ben Gruber be the one to make it happen?

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

The state of the race with less than 50 days to go (with Todd Allbaugh)

Dan Shafer and Todd Allbaugh

Sep 16

Watch now

Southwestern Wisconsin native Todd Allbaugh discusses this race in District 51 on a recent episode of The Recombobulation Area podcast. Listen here.

Assembly District 61

Candidates:

Ben Brist (Democratic)
Bob Donovan (Republican)

Incumbent: Bob Donovan (2023-present)

2024 District data: Harris+2.2, Baldwin+3.7

2024 results: Donovan 51.5% - Bird 48.3%

Donovan+3.2

Bob Donovan has been a well-known public figure in the Milwaukee metro area for more than 25 years. He served on the Common Council from 2000 to 2020, and was one of its most conservative members throughout that time. He ran for mayor in the City of Milwaukee twice, losing in landslide races to Tom Barrett in 2016 and to Cavalier Johnson in 2022.

But, later in 2022, Donovan found his second act in public service winning an extremely close race against Democrat LuAnn Bird by just 526 votes. He defeated Bird in a rematch by a slightly larger margin in 2024, a year where two Milwaukee County swing districts were on the ballot in the Assembly, and the Republican incumbent won in both races. In the Assembly, Donovan is the Chair of the Committee on Urban Revitalization and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Local Government.

Donovan also may or may not live in the district he’s elected to represent, and used campaign funds to the tune of $850 per month to pay for “staff lodging” at his old, out-of-district home. Donovan’s wife is also still registered to vote in their home in the old district, and Donovan has used that prior address in financial reports submitted to the Wisconsin Ethics Commission, Heartland Signal has found.

But on name recognition alone, Donovan is in a better position than just about any Assembly candidate, having been a staple of local news and conservative talk radio for much of the 21st Century. He also has the advantage of incumbency, and has out-run the top of the ticket in prior races (though not as much as some others).

This time, he’ll face first-time candidate Ben Brist, who won a three-candidate primary in August with about 44% of the vote. Brist is a veteran of the U.S. Army, serving active duty for seven years as a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division and also as a Company Commander, and was deployed twice, serving in Iraq and Kuwait. He also finished graduate studies at West Point and graduated from U.S. Army Ranger School.

The 70-year-old Donovan has proven to be a fairly strong candidate in the legislature, and Democrats will need to defeat him in order to win a majority.

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

Assembly District 88

Candidates:

Brandy Tollefson (Democratic)
Benjamin Franklin (Republican)

Incumbent: Benjamin Franklin (2025-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+0.3, Baldwin+1.2

2024 results: Franklin 50.3% - Welch 49.6%

Franklin+0.7

District map:

This district is as swingy as it gets in Wisconsin — won by both Tony Evers and Ron Johnson in 2022, by less than 1% by Donald Trump in 2020, and by less than 1% by Kamala Harris in 2024. This district includes part of the city of Green Bay, and several surrounding cities to the east, including De Pere.

Republican incumbent Ben Franklin won an open seat race in the 88th in 2024, and while Franklin now has the advantage of incumbency, this is his first term serving in the Assembly. Franklin, an Air Force veteran, has been the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Veterans and Military Affairs, but overall, has not been a particularly high-profile legislator.

The Democrat challenging for the seat is Brandy Tollefson. Tollefson serves on the De Pere School District Board of Education, a seat she won in 2024. She currently works as the board’s Treasurer. She has made public education a priority in her campaign, telling UpNorthNews that Republicans in the legislature have “put schools in the position that they’re in that continue to force us to go to referendum.”

Of the three toss-up races in the Assembly, this is the most likely race for the Democratic candidate to win. In 2024, Franklin won by the closest margin of any state representative in Wisconsin — just 220 votes. The changing political environment, as pertains to an especially swingy area like Brown County, could be enough to move this district into the blue column.

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

The open seats favored to flip for Democrats (2)

Assembly District 21

Candidates:

Dan Bukiewicz (Democratic)
Dylan Pfaffenbach (Republican)

Incumbent: Jessie Rodriguez, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Harris+4.0, Baldwin+7.0

2024 results: Rodriguez 51.3% - Marstellar 48.5%

Rodriguez+2.8

After Jessie Rodriguez announced in May that she would not be seeking re-election in the Assembly, I wrote a piece on why that particular retirement is an especially big deal. Rodriguez has consistently out-run the top of the ticket, and has been more of a moderate voice in a Republican Party that’s gone in a much less moderate direction in recent years.

This is a Milwaukee County district that Kamala Harris won by 4% and Tammy Baldwin won by 7%, and no longer having a strong incumbent running to keep the seat red means an open contest and a major opportunity for Democrats to flip a district from red to blue.

This district includes all of the city of Oak Creek, which is significant, because the mayor of Oak Creek, Dan Bukiewicz, who has held the position since 2018, is the Democratic candidate in this Assembly race. Bukiewicz has also been the elected President of the Milwaukee Building and Construction Trades Council since 2014. He won his August primary over David Liners with about 59% of the vote. A candidate with that kind of name recognition and credentials in an Assembly district is hard to come by — bolstering the Democrats’ chances for flipping this district.

The Republican running is first-time candidate Dylan Pfaffenbach, who has worked in Republican politics and is a college student at Carroll University, where he is the founder of a Turning Point USA chapter.

This is the most likely flip district for Democrats in the Assembly this cycle.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D (FLIP)

Assembly District 53

Candidates:

Becky Nichols (Democratic)
David Daniels (Republican)
Rachael Dowling (Independent)

Incumbent: Dean Kaufert, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Harris+4.4, Baldwin+6.1

2024 results: Kaufert 50.5% - Shukoski 49.4%

Kaufert+1.2

Republican incumbent Dean Kaufert had previously served in the State Assembly and was the mayor of Neenah for several years before running in the newly redrawn 53rd District in 2024. A well-known local official like Kaufert being the candidate shifted this district from “Lean D” to “Toss Up.” But days after an April 2026 Heartland Signal report revealed a sexual harassment investigation involving underage girls that occurred in 2019 when Kaufert was mayor, he announced he would not be running for re-election.

Now, the Republican running in this district is David Daniels, a first-time candidate who previously served in the U.S. Air Force and has been a business owner. There’s also a third-party candidate running in this race, Rachael Dowling, who serves on the Winnebago County Board, and was previously backed by the Winnebago County GOP.

Initially, the Democratic candidate in this race was Lauri Asbury, but she suspended her campaign and endorsed now-candidate Becky Nichols. Nichols served on the Menasha City Council from 2013 to 2025, and ran for mayor in the city twice, losing both times. She also served on the Winnebago County Board from 2022 to 2024, and is currently a teacher in the Menasha Joint School District, where she has also served on the Menasha Education Fund Board.

Nichols and Dowling, but not Daniels, participated in a recent community forum for the race, hosted by the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin.

Given Nichols’ background as a candidate, and the possibility that a right-leaning independent candidate could split votes, Nichols is in position to win this race and flip this seat — one that the Republican won by just a few hundred votes in 2024.

Also, of note: the recent tornado that hit Menasha has impacted each of the candidates in this race, and prompted each of them to suspend campaign activities in the aftermath. In a recent Wisconsin Public Radio story, Nichols said part of her roof had been torn off in the July storm, and it was raining inside her house, and she’s since been displaced from her home in the hard-hit Doty Island neighborhood. Dowling also experienced some property damage from the storm, and reached out to Nichols afterwards. Per the WPR story, the candidates have tried to avoid door-knocking in areas affected by the storm.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D (FLIP)

Republican incumbents in close races (3)

Assembly District 30

Candidates:

Kevin Knoke (Democratic)
Shannon Zimmerman (Republican)

Incumbent: Shannon Zimmerman, (2017-present)

2024 District Data: Trump+4.4, Hovde+4.9

2024 results: Zimmerman 54.2% - Page 45.7%

Zimmerman+8.5

Shannon Zimmerman has served in the legislature for nearly a decade, and has been on the powerful budget-writing Joint Committee on Finance since 2019. Zimmerman is also a business owner and executive with several different companies, and owned a winery with his family called Belle Vinez Winery, which they sold in 2022.

In the most recent session, Zimmerman missed quite a few votes. One report showed he was gone for more than 25% of all Assembly floor sessions in the 2025-26 session, and missed more than 225 votes. One thing he was involved in, though, was a bill on data centers that moved quickly through the Assembly in January, but didn’t make it through the Senate, and faced opposition from Gov. Evers and legislative Democrats.

Zimmerman’s Democratic opponent in this race is Kevin Knoke, a first-time candidate and longtime educator in the region, who taught in the Hudson School District for more than 25 years. He’s also a veteran who served in the U.S. Army Reserve for eight years. One trend among many of the Democratic Assembly candidates this year is that many are current or former educators. Oftentimes, these individuals can be well-known figures in their communities. This was the case last cycle with Joe Sheehan of Sheboygan, who flipped a district from red to blue.

District 30 the closest district in Wisconsin to the Twin Cities in Minnesota, so there is significant influence from the media market there. Kare 11 in the Twin Cities recently noted a “spending blitz” for Wisconsin candidates in the area, including one from Zimmerman that features a “negative portrayal of Minnesota.” With Hudson being just a 20-minute drive from St. Paul, the Minnesota of it all looks to be a major factor in the race — from GOP criticism of Wisconsin’s neighbor to the west to larger realignment trends of suburban districts moving toward Democrats.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN R

Assembly District 85

Candidates:

John Kroll (Democratic)
Patrick Snyder (Republican)

Incumbent: Patrick Snyder (2017-present)

2024 District data: Trump+0.6, Baldwin+1.0

2024 results: Snyder 53.2% - Xiong 46.7%

Snyder+6.5

District 85 has the distinction of being the only Trump-Baldwin Assembly district in the state. The president won the district by less than a percentage point, and Baldwin carried the district by 1%. If this were an open seat, it would be a toss-up, but with a Republican incumbent who has overperformed the top of the ticket, this is in our “Lean R” category.

But just barely. Of the three “Lean R” races, this is the most likely to flip for Democrats. John Kroll is the candidate seeking to flip the seat. He currently serves on the Marathon County Board, elected in 2024, and volunteers as an advisor at Western Technical College.

Patrick Snyder has served in this district for nearly a decade, and is the Chair of the Committee on Children and Families and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Workforce Development, Labor and Integrated Employment. He is a former congressional staffer for then-congressman Sean Duffy and was an on-air radio host in Wausau for 12 years before running for Assembly.

Snyder was among the Republicans advocating for postpartum Medicaid extension in the most recent session, but it wasn’t until Democrats maneuvered to force a vote on the final day of the session that the bill did eventually pass — with contentious comments being made in the following hours.

Snyder was also in the news earlier this year as one of several politicians whose profiles on the Ashley Madison website were made public. Snyder also had an account on AdultFriendFinder, the report said.

The largest city in this district is Wausau, with a population of just over 40,000. This is a city that has a fairly evenly-divided electorate, largely favoring Democrats by single-digit margins in most statewide races, but close to an even 50-50 in Assembly races with Snyder on the ticket. He’s been a formidable incumbent, and he could win again. But if Kroll wins this race, it likely means Democrats will have won a majority in the Assembly.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN R

Assembly District 92

Candidates:

Jeremiah Fredrickson (Democratic)
Clint Moses (Republican)

Incumbent: Clint Moses (2021-present)

2024 District data: Trump+7.0, Hovde+3.9

2024 results: Moses 53.3% - Plouff 46.7%

Moses+6.6

Earlier this year, I helped moderate an event in Eau Claire with former WisDems chair Ben Wikler. Wikler, in his new book, is especially adept at explaining how different races at different levels of government can have an outsized and profound impact that reverberates through our politics – and how people can make a difference in their local communities in ways that can impact an entire nation. In our conversation — available here — I highlighted the 92nd District as one of those types of races, and Wikler agreed. If Democrats win this race, they’re likely to win control of the Assembly — perhaps even by a few seats.

The incumbent Republican seeking re-election is Clint Moses, who is the Chair of the Committee on Health, Aging and Long-Term Care and the Vice-Chair of the committee on Agriculture.

Moses is a chiropractor, and owns Red Cedar Chiropractic in Menominee. He has advocated for a number of proposals that “take inspiration from U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda,” according to a Wisconsin Examiner report, like barring FoodShare participants from purchasing soda and candy with their benefits.

While this is a Republican-leaning district, Tony Evers carried this seat by 0.1% in 2022. Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson is the challenger seeking to flip this district blue, after winning the August primary with more than 79% of the vote. Fredrickson was a teacher and is a youth sports coach in Elk Mound. He’s also the owner of Jeremiah’s Bullfrog Fish Farm, where you can go fishing for rainbow trout and then have it cooked on-site in their outdoor kitchen. This business launched in 2017 is open May through September in Menomonie, serves several restaurants and retailers in the area, and has an online store.

A contest between an educator and agri-tourism business owner and an RFK-influenced chiropractor is going to be one of the most important races in Wisconsin. Because of course it is.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN R

Democratic incumbents in close races (7)

Assembly District 26

Candidates:

Joe Sheehan (Democratic)
John Belanger (Republican)

Incumbent: Joe Sheehan (2025-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+2.7, Baldwin+4.7

2024 results: Sheehan 51.4% - Binsfeld 48.4%

Sheehan+2.9

Joe Sheehan is in his first term in the state legislature, winning a key race in 2024. Previous maps had split the city of Sheboygan into two districts, but combined into one, it became a pickup opportunity for Democrats. Sheehan is the former superintendent of the Sheboygan Area School District and is now on the Committee on Education.

He’ll face John Belanger, who served as an alderman in Sheboygan from 2012 to 2018, and from 2024-2026. He also ran for mayor in 2025, losing to Ryan Sorenson (a Democrat who was an early endorser of David Crowley’s run for governor), 58% to 42%, and lost his re-election bid for Common Council earlier this year. Belanger won a three-candidate primary in August with 64% of the vote to be the Republican nominee in this race.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 43

Candidates:

Brienne Brown (Democratic)
Paul McGraw (Republican)

Incumbent: Brienne Brown (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+5.2, Baldwin+7.5

2024 results: Brown 51.2% - Johnson 48.6%

Brown+2.6

Brienne Brown broke through as the winner of a race that was closer than many expected in the 2024 election. She serves on committees on Agriculture, and on Veterans and Military Affairs. She previously served on the Whitewater Common Council from 2018 to 2025 and on the Whitewater Library board for more than a decade. In the 2024 Assembly race, she faced incumbent Republican Scott Johnson, after lines were redrawn to put all of the UW-Whitewater campus into one district.

Now, it’s Brown who will have the advantage of incumbency as she seeks re-election. She’ll face Paul McGraw, a veterinarian from Walworth County. McGraw ran for Richmond Town Board and lost in the 2025 election.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 54

Candidates:

Lori Palmeri (Democratic)
Tim Paterson (Republican)

Incumbent: Lori Palmeri (2023-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+6.9, Baldwin+9.7

2024 results: Palmeri 52.6% - Paterson 47.3%

Palmeri+5.3

Democratic incumbent Lori Palmeri will face Republican challenger Tim Paterson in what will be a rematch of the 2024 race. Palmeri is in her third term, and her win in 2022 helped block a Republican supermajority. Before being elected to the Assembly, she was the mayor of the City of Oshkosh from 2019 to 2023.

Paterson a military veteran who served in the Wisconsin National Guard from 1989 to 2017. He currently serves on the Winnebago County Board. This is a race that could move toward “Likely D” if current trends hold.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 89

Candidates:

Ryan Spaude (Democratic)
Bobby Lindsey (Republican)

Incumbent: Ryan Spaude (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+2.0, Baldwin+4.1

2024 results: Spaude 51.3% - Buckley 48.5%

Spaude+2.8

Ryan Spaude won a key race in 2024, defeating a well-known Green Bay Republican to flip the district from red to blue. Spaude, a former Assistant District Attorney in Brown County, is on the Assembly committees on Criminal Justice and Public Safety and on Judiciary.

He faces Republican challenger Bobby Lindsey, a retired police officer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran. Lindsey ran for Green Bay City Council in 2024, losing by less than 50 votes.

Spaude being a first-term representative — like Franklin in the 88th on the other side of Green Bay — makes him among the more vulnerable incumbents in the Assembly. He won by just 826 votes in 2024, after all. But Spaude slightly out-ran Kamala Harris in this district, which you don’t often see from Assembly Democrats, and now he has at least one term of incumbency working for him. But this is still very much a race to watch, and an upset is not out of the question.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 91

Candidates:

Jodi Emerson (Democratic)
Bruce Stabenow (Republican)

Incumbent: Jodi Emerson (2019-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+4.5, Baldwin+7.4

2024 results: Emerson 51.5% - Skinner 48.3%

Emerson+3.2

Jodi Emerson has represented this Eau Claire area district since winning in 2018, and though margins were closer under new maps in 2024, she was able to win and hold the seat. Emerson is currently in party leadership as the Minority Caucus Sergeant At Arms, and has worked in a variety of roles to combat human trafficking over the years. She serves on three Assembly committees — Colleges and Universities; Criminal Justice and Public Safety; Housing and Real Estate.

She’ll face Republican Bruce Stabenow, who previously served two terms on the Augusta Common Council. This race has the potential to move toward the “Likely D” category.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 94

Candidates:

Steve Doyle (Democratic)
Keith Purnell (Republican)

Incumbent: Steve Doyle (2011-present)

2024 District data: Trump+2.1, Hovde+0.1

2024 results: Doyle 50.3% - Huebsch 49.7%

Doyle+0.6

Steve Doyle is “Mr. Bipartisan.” He even owns the domain name for “mrbipartisan.com,” which reroutes to his Assembly campaign website. “Nobody beats me in terms of voting in a bipartisan way,” he told WPR in 2024. A 2020 Legislative Reference Bureau report said Doyle was the most bipartisan member of the Assembly.

With that bipartisan record, Doyle is the only Democrat to have won any district carried by Donald Trump in the 2024 election. He’s been serving in the Assembly since 2011, and has served on the La Crosse County Board since 1986. He recently told The New York Times that he was bracing for attack ads tying him to Francesca Hong, saying “that would have been the thing I heard about the whole campaign.” Instead, he is back to a “familiar routine” of touting his bipartisan record.

In the last two elections, he faced the same candidate, Ryan Huebsch, winning narrow victories both times. This time, he’ll face Keith Purnell, a U.S. Army veteran with more than 30 years of service, including several leadership roles, and as Senior Military Instructor in the ROTC program at UW-La Crosse.

With any other candidate, this race would be listed as a “toss up.” With Doyle on the ballot, Mr. Bipartisan is in position to win again.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 95

Candidates:

Jill Billings (Democratic)
Cedric Schnitzler (Republican)
Paul Weber (Independent)

Incumbent: Jill Billings (2011-present)

2024 District data: Harris+2.2, Baldwin+5.5

2024 results: Billings 52.0% - Schnitzler 48.0% (REMATCH)

Billings+4.0

This is another rematch of a close race won by a Democratic incumbent. Jill Billings has served in the Assembly since 2011, and was on the La Crosse County Board from 2004 to 2012. Earlier this year, she was honored with the Outstanding Legislator Award from the Wisconsin Counties Association.

She’ll again face Cedric Schnitzler, who she defeated by a 4% margin in 2024. Schnitzler is a former dairy farmer who currently serves as the Chair of the Monroe County Board, where he has served “on and off” for the past 30 years.

There is also a third-party candidate in this race, Paul Weber, who is facing sexual assault charges involving multiple victims.

This is another race trending toward the “Likely D” category.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Probably safe Republicans in suburban seats (2)

Assembly District 22

Candidates:

Dana Glasstein (Democratic)
Paul Melotik (Republican)

Incumbent: Paul Melotik (2023-present)

2024 District Data: Trump+9.9, Hovde+11.9

2024 results: Melotik 58.0% - Glasstein 41.9%

Melotik+16.1

Many suburban seats have been trending toward Democrats in recent years, and this largely Ozaukee County District saw Trump’s margin of victory drop just below double-digits in the most recent election. Interestingly, Eric Hovde did better than Trump in this district, which includes blue-trending cities of Cedarburg and Port Washington. Cedarburg went from a city carried by Mitt Romney by about a 25-point margin in 2012 to one won by Kamala Harris by 2% in 2024.

This is still a long-shot race for Democrats — and is a rematch of a race Melotik won by a substantial margin in 2024 — but is one to watch as the suburbs continue to shift. David Crowley had a strong showing in Ozaukee County in the primary, and in this year’s state Supreme Court race, Chris Taylor won the county. The Democratic challenger is Dana Glasstein, an educator in the state’s technical college system and an active volunteer in the Mequon-Thiensville School District. This will be an interesting test of how Democrats might fare in downballot races in suburban districts.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY R

Assembly District 82

Candidates:

Rico Camacho (Democratic)
Bryson Reyes (Republican)

Incumbent: Scott Allen, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Trump+8.1, Hovde+8.4

2024 results: Allen 57.2% - Reilly 42.7%

Allen+14.5

This is a race to watch. This district includes much of the city of Waukesha, and is an open seat, after Republican incumbent Scott Allen announced he would be “taking a sabbatical from elected office.”

Translation: He’s not running for re-election, and he lost a race for mayor against Democrat Alicia Halvensleben. That victory from Halvensleben is worth noting, as it serves as a clear sign of the shifting political ideology of the former Republican stronghold of Waukesha County.

The Democratic candidate running here is Rico Camacho, an educator and soccer coach who is serving as an Alderperson on the Waukesha Common Council. He faces Republican Bryson Reyes, a first-time candidate who served in the U.S. Army and now works in manufacturing. There’s been a dispute in the race involving a political mailer that Camacho said “darkened his skin.”

While this is still a Republican-leaning district, Camacho’s candidacy is an interesting one, as someone more well-known in the area, and who serves in elected office in the city. If there’s any reach seat upset potential if the election breaks extraordinarily well for Democrats, it would be in this district.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY R

Probably safe Democrats in and around mid-size cities (12)

Assembly District 14

Candidates:

Angelito Tenorio (Democratic)
AmyRose Murphy (Republican)

Incumbent: Angelito Tenorio (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+10.1, Baldwin+12.5

2024 results: Tenorio 52.7% - Engstrand 43.4% - Shevey (IND) 3.8%

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 40

Candidates:

Karen DeSanto (Democratic)
Julie Helmer (Republican)

Incumbent: Karen DeSanto (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+4.8, Baldwin+8.1

2024 results: Desanto 54.1% - Helmer 45.9%

DeSanto+8.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 42

Candidates:

Maureen McCarville (Democratic)
Keith Miller (Republican)

Incumbent: Maureen McCarville (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+14.9, Baldwin+16.4

2024 results: McCarville 55.0% - Witherspoon 44.9%

McCarville+10.1

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 45

Candidates:

Clinton Anderson (Democratic)
Jocelyn Jordan (Republican)

Incumbent: Clinton Anderson (2023-present)

2024 District data: Harris+7.3, Baldwin+11.3

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 46

Candidates:

Joan Fitzgerald (Democratic)
John Donohue (Republican)

Incumbent: Joan Fitzgerald

2024 District data: Harris+8.1, Baldwin+9.3

2024 results: Fitzgerald 52.4% - Quimby 47.5%

Fitzgerald+4.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 50

Candidates:

Bill Oemichen (Democratic)
Jon Aleckson (Republican)

Incumbent: Jenna Jacobson, running for Senate

2024 District data: Harris+14.3, Baldwin+16.3

2024 results: Jacobson 56.3% - Johnson 43.7%

Jacobson+12.6

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 65

Candidates:

Ben DeSmidt (Democratic)
Valerie Kretchmer (Republican)

Incumbent: Ben DeSmidt (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+7.0, Baldwin+9.5

2024 results: DeSmidt 53.3% - Gonzales 46.5%

DeSmidt+6.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 66

Candidates:

Greta Neubauer (Democratic)
Gina Cefalu Paulick (Republican)

Incumbent: Greta Neubauer (2018-present), Minority Leader (2021-present)

2024 District data: Harris+9.4, Baldwin+11.0

2024 results: Neubauer 53.9% - DeGroot 45.9%

Neubauer+8.0%

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 71

Candidates:

Vinnie Miresse (Democratic)
Jeff Disher (Republican)

Incumbent: Vinnie Miresse (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+6.7, Baldwin+9.6

2024 results: Miresse 53.1% - Pahmeier 46.8%

Miresse+6.3

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 90

Candidates:

Amaad Rivera-Wagner (Democratic)
Jessica Henderson (Republican)

Incumbent: Amaad Rivera-Wagner (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+10.0, Baldwin+12.2

2024 results: Rivera-Wagner 52.5% - Henderson 47.4%

Rivera-Wagner+5.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 93

Candidates:

Christian Phelps (Democratic)
Michael Ayala (Republican)

Incumbent: Christian Phelps (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+8.3, Baldwin+9.9

2024 results: Phelps 52.7% - Rolbiecki 47.2%

Phelps+5.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 96

Candidates:

Tara Johnson (Democratic)
Jim Green (Republican)

Incumbent: Tara Johnson (2025-present

2024 District data: Harris+8.3, Baldwin+11.6

2024 results: Johnson 51.0% - Oldenburg 49.0%

Johnson+2.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

From the archives: The one and only mega-preview of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature

Sep 1

Refer a friend

The safe Republicans (44)

5 uncontested races

(Note: All Republicans are incumbents, unless an open seat is noted)

Assembly District 1

Joel Kitchens (R) vs. Renee Paplham (D)

2024 District data: Trump+14.8, Hovde+12.6

2024 result: Kitchens 61.9% - Paplham 38.0%

Kitchens+23.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 2

Shae Sortwell (R) vs. Alicia Saunders (D)

Republican: Shae Sortwell

2024 District data: Trump+23.5, Hovde+22.0

2024 result: Sortwell 63.2% - Saunders 36.7%

Sortwell+26.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 3

Ron Tusler (R) vs. Michael Goodwin (D)

2024 district data: Trump+23, Hovde+21.9

2024 result: Tusler 64.5% - Schmitz 35.5%

Tusler+26.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 4

David Steffen (R) vs. Alexia Unertl (D)

2024 District data: Trump+29.0, Hovde+27.1

2024 results: Steffen 66.2% - Benson 33.8%

Steffen+32.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 5

Joy Goeben (R) vs. Justin Schumacher (D) vs. David Schupbach (Wisconsin Green)

2024 District data: Trump+21.2, Hovde+19.3

2024 results: Goeben 62.8% - Sampson 37.2%

Goeben+25.6

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 6

Elijah Behnke (R) vs. Shirley Hinze (D)

2024 District data: Trump+32.2, Hovde+28.7

2024 results: Behnke 67.4% - Hinze 32.5%

Behnke+34.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 15

Adam Neylon (R) vs. Stephen Tryon (D)

2024 District data: Trump+12.4, Hovde+14.0

2024 results: Neylon 59.1% - Harrison 40.8%

Neylon+18.3

Neylon is running for both State Assembly and Waukesha County Executive, not unlike State Sen. Chris Kapenga. The Wisconsin Examiner reported on each of these dual runs.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 24

Dan Knodl (R) vs. Matt Brown (D)

2024 District data: Trump+9.9, Hovde+11.3

2024 results: Knodl 59.9% - Walter 39.9%

Knodl+20.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 25

Paul Tittl (R) vs. Chris Able (D)

2024 District data: Trump+15.4, Hovde+13.3

2024 results: Tittl: 61.7% - Welch 38.2%

Tittl+23.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 27

Lindee Brill (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+30.0, Hovde+28.9

2024 results: Brill 67.7% - Ladson 32.2%

Brill+35.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 28

Rob Kreibich (R) vs. Robin Lillesve (D)

2024 District data: Trump+30.4, Hovde+28.0

2024 results: Kreibich 66.1% - Johnson 33.8%

Kreibich+32.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 29

Treig Pronschinske (R) vs. Chris Danou (D)

2024 District data: Trump+27.8, Hovde+23.6

2024 results: Pronschinske 64.9% - Schoonover 35.0%

Pronschinske+29.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 31

Tyler August (R) vs. John Perryman (D)

2024 District data: Trump+22.6, Hovde+21.7

2024 results: August 63.3% - Henderson 36.5%

August+26.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 32

Amanda Nedweski (R) vs. Greg Miller (D)

2024 District data: Trump+31.3, Hovde+29.3

2024 results: Nedweski 67.9% - Dhindsa 31.9%

Nedweski+36.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

The end of the Vos Era, finally

Feb 20

Refer a friend

Assembly District 33

OPEN SEAT: Steve Wicklund (R) vs. Maria Elena Bisabarros (D)

Incumbent: Robin Vos, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+29.5, Hovde+28.8

2024 results: Vos 57.0% - Kupsik 29.8% - Clark (IND) 13.1%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 34

Rob Swearingen (R) vs. Merlin Van Buren (D)

2024 District data: Trump+19.7, Hovde+17.5

2024 results: Swearingen 64.1% - Nitzel 35.9%

Swearingen+28.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 35

Calvin Callahan (R) vs. Elizabeth McCrank (D)

2024 District data: Trump+30.4, Hovde+26.8

2024 results: Callahan 67.7% - McCrank 32.2%

Callahan+35.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 36

Jeffrey Mursau (R) vs. Shena Chapman (D)

2024 District data: Trump+38.2, Hovde+33.5

2024 results: Mursau 70.8% - Murray 28.9%

Mursau+41.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 37

Mark Born (R) vs. LaToya Bates (D)

2024 District data: Trump+28.4, Hovde+25.5

2024 results: Born 68.6% - Bates 31.4% (REMATCH

Born+37.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 38

William Penterman (R) vs. Terri Wenkman (D)

2024 District data: Trump+30.5, Hovde+ 28.3

2024 results: Penterman 67.3% - Hassey Nevarez 32.6%

Penterman+34.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 39

Alex Dallman (R) vs. Michael Skivington (D)

2024 District data: Trump+33.3, Hovde+29.3

2024 results: Dallman 69.5% - Gordon 30.4%

Dallman+39.1%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 41

Tony Kurtz (R) vs. Zach Commons (D)

2024 District data: Trump+17.4, Hovde+12.9

2024 results: Kurtz 63.1% - Henley 36.8%%

Kurtz+26.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 49

Travis Tranel (R) vs. John Rindy (D)

2024 District data: Trump+17.1, Hovde+12.6

2024 results: Tranel 63.0% - Walker 36.9%

Tranel+26.1

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 55

Nate Gustafson (R) vs. Alex Corrigan (D)

2024 District data: Trump+16.6, Hovde+15.0

2024 results: Gustafson 60.4% - Kehoe 39.5%

Gustafson+20.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 56

OPEN SEAT: Anthony Phillips (R) vs. Grace Abitz (D)

Incumbent: Dave Murphy, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+27.2, Hovde+26.0

2024 results: Murphy 64.7% - Tseffos 35.2%

Murphy+29.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 57

OPEN SEAT: Kevin Krentz (R) vs. Joey Marschall (D)

Incumbent: Kevin Petersen, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+34.3, Hovde+31.5

2024 results: Peterson 62.3% - Caves 28.4% - Testing (IND) 9.2%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 58

OPEN SEAT: Bernie Newman (R) vs. Dennis Degenhardt (D)

Incumbent: Rick Gundrum, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+36.5, Hovde+36.2

2024 results: Gundrum 71.3% - Anderson 28.6%

Gundrum+42.6

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 59

OPEN SEAT: Bradley Petersen (R) vs. Jack Holzman (D)

Incumbent: Robert Brooks, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+47.8, Hovde+47.0

2024 results: Brooks 75.7% - Holzman 24.2%

Brooks+51.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 60

OPEN SEAT: Marty Ryan (R) vs. Tiffany Brault (D)

Incumbent: Jerry O’Conner, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+14.3, Hovde+11.8

2024 results: O’Conner 60.1% - Lavrenz 39.8%

O’Conner+20.3

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 63

Robert Wittke (R) vs. Eddie Phanichkul (D)

2024 District data: Trump+14.2, Hovde+13.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 67

David Armstrong (R) vs. Indiana Thompson (D)

2024 District data: Trump+29.5, Hovde+26.8

2024 results: Armstrong 67.6% - Foster 32.3%

Armstrong+35.3

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 68

Rob Summerfield (R) vs. Elisha King (D)

2024 District data: Trump+37.6, Hovde+33.4

2024 results: Summerfield 72.8% - Pulcher 27.1%

Summerfield+45.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 69

Karen Hurd (R) vs. Roger Halls (D) vs. Josh Kelley (Independent)

2024 District data: Trump+41.3, Hovde+36.4

2024 results: Hurd 71.9% - Halls 24.2% - Kelley 3.9%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 70

Nancy VanderMeer (R) vs. Stephanie Stuve Bodeen (D)

2024 District data: Trump+25.8, Hovde+21.1

2024 results: VanderMeer 66.8% - Gomez 33.2%

VanderMeer+33.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 72

Scott Krug (R) vs. Christine Maltese (D)

2024 District data: Trump+22.8, Hovde+18.9

2024 results: Krug 63.9% - Campbell 36.0%

Krug+27.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 74

Chanz Green (R) vs. Paul Johnson (D)

2024 District data: Trump+21.9, Hovde+18.9

2024 results: Green 62.4% - Rand Bruce 37.5%

Green+24.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 75

Duke Tucker (R) vs. Keith Mogel (D)

2024 District data: Trump+31.1, Hovde+28.0

2024 results: Tucker 66.7% - Kleiss 33.3%

Tucker+33.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 83

Dave Maxey (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+17.3, Hovde+18.3

2024 results: Maxey 60.9% - Schindler 38.9%

Maxey+22.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 84

Chuck Wichgers (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+38.1, Hovde+38.5

2024 results: Wichgers 71.9% - Roper 28.0%

Wichgers+43.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 86

John Spiros (R) vs. Andy Wuethrich (D)

2024 District data: Trump+27.8, Hovde+23.7

2024 results: Spiros 66.9% - Small 33.0%

Spiros+33.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 87

Brent Jacobson (R) vs. Bob Look (D)

2024 District data: Trump+26.1, Hovde+23.6

2024 results: Jacobson 66.0% - Switalla 33.9%

Jacobson+32.1

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 97

Cindi Duchow, running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+33.7, Hovde+34.9

2024 results: Duchow 70.9% - Leonard 28.9%

Duchow+42.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 98

Jim Piwowarczyk (R) vs. Matt Philibert (D)

2024 District data: Trump+35.3, Hovde+36.5

2024 results: Piwowarczyk 71.1% - Schmechel 28.9%

Piwowarczyk+42.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 99

Barbara Dittrich (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+31.9, Hovde+33.0

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

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The safe Democrats (26)

(Note: All Republicans are incumbents, unless an open seat is noted)

Assembly District 7

Karen Kirsch (D) vs. Lee Whiting (R)

2024 District data: Harris+14.5, Baldwin+18.5

2024 results: Kirsch 58.5% - Whiting 41.2%

Kirsch+17.3

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 8

Ismael Luna (D) vs. Angel Sanchez (R)

Incumbent: Sylvia Ortiz-Velez, lost in Democratic primary

2024 District data: Harris+46.3, Baldwin+51.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 9

Priscilla Prado (D) vs. Sam Guerrero (R)

2024 District data: Harris+33.7, Baldwin 41.0

2024 results: Prado 70.2% - Antczak 29.5%

Prado+40.7

Prado’s campaign recently fired a staff member after a report from Hispanic News Network showed the staff member is on the state sex offender registry.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 10

Darrin Madison (D) vs. Robert Longwell-Grice (Wisconsin Green)

No Republican running

2024 District data: Harris+69.2, Baldwin+69.8

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 11

Sequanna Taylor (D) vs. Shandowlyon Reaves (R)

2024 District data: Harris+75.2, Baldwin+76.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 12

Russell Goodwin Sr., running uncontested

2024 District data: Harris+59.6, Baldwin+61.2

2024 results: Goodwin 80.5% - Alexander (IND) 18.9%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 13

OPEN SEAT: Amy Zimmerman (D) vs. Mike Morgan (R)

Incumbent: Robyn Vining, not seeking re-election, running for Senate in District 5

2024 District data: Harris+20.5, Baldwin+17.7

2024 results: Vining 57.2% - Michalski 42.6%

Vining+14.6

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 16

Kalan Haywood (D) vs. Alciro Deacon (R)

2024 District data: Harris+71.5, Baldwin+73.1

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 17

Supreme Moore Omokunde (D) vs. Charlene Abughrin (R)

2024 District data: Harris+67.6, Baldwin+68.7

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 18

Margaret Arney (D) vs. Joel Richmond (R)

2024 District data: Harris+66.3, Baldwin+66.4

2024 results: Arney: 82.2% - Anderson 17.5%

Arney+64.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 19

Ryan Clancy (D) vs. Yasmine Outlaw (R)

2024 District data: Harris+60.0, Baldwin+61.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 20

Christine Sinicki (D) vs. Kyle Cleary (R)

2024 District data: Harris+18.8, Baldwin+22.0

2024 results: Sinicki 61.0% - Moeller 38.8%

Sinicki+22.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 23

Deb Andraca (D) vs. Aleaner Pabonnie (R)

2024 District data: Harris+28.3, Baldwin+26.2

2024 results: Andraca 62.6% - O’Brien Wolf 37.3%

Andraca+25.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 44

Ann Roe (D) vs. Ron Woodman (R)

2024 District data: Harris+10.8, Baldwin+13.3

2024 results: Roe 56.4% - Danielson 43.5%

Roe+12.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 47

Randy Udell (D) vs. Sandy Bakk (R)

2024 District data: Harris+43, Baldwin+43.5

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 48

Andrew Hysell (D) vs. Mark Kjorlie (R)

2024 District data: Harris+37.0, Baldwin+37.5

2024 results: Hysell 67.3% - Rubric 32.5%

Hysell+34.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 52

Lee Snodgrass (D) vs. Reive Pullen (R)

2024 District data: Harris+14.6, Baldwin+15.7

2024 results: Snodgrass 57.3% - Cooke 42.8%

Snodgrass+14.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 62

Angelina Cruz (D) vs. Mike Bellagio (R)

2024 District data: Harris+22.1, Baldwin+23.1

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 64

Tip McGuire (D) vs. Ed Hibsch (R)

2024 District data: Harris+6.3, Baldwin+10.0

2024 results: McGuire 55.6% - Hibsch 44.2%

McGuire+11.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 73

Angela Stroud (D) vs. Frank Kostka (R)

2024 District data: Harris+15.5, Baldwin+18.4

2024 results: Stroud 58.3% - Kostka 41.5%

Stroud+16.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 76

OPEN SEAT: Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford (D) vs. Nina Chat (R)

Incumbent: Francesca Hong, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Harris+79.0, Baldwin+80.5

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 77

Renuka Mayadev (D) vs. Jane McCormick (R)

2024 District data: Harris+64.9, Baldwin+67.2

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 78

Shelia Stubbs (D) vs. Henry Johnson (R)

2024 District data: Harris+61.7, Baldwin+63.0

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 79

Lisa Subeck (D) vs. John Fons (R)

2024 District data: Harris+71.8, Baldwin+72.0

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 80

Mike Bare (D) vs. Simran Arora (R)

2024 District data: Harris+48.3, Baldwin+47.2

2024 results: Bare 73.4% - Relph 26.5%

Bare+46.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 81

Alex Joers (D) vs. Mark Maier (R)

2024 District data: Harris+38.8, Baldwin+38.4

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

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2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Senate

Sep 22