The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
This is part of The Recombobulation Area’s 2026 Election Mega-Preview of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature.
Read Dan Shafer’s column introducing the series, “Wisconsin’s Fork in the Road.”
This part of the preview includes a district-by-district breakdown of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Senate. That includes 17 races, all in odd-numbered districts.
Go to MyVote Wisconsin, find your district, see what’s on your ballot, and make a plan to vote.
Of the two chambers in the Wisconsin State Legislature, it’s the State Senate where Democrats have the best chance of winning control. By most objective assessments, Democrats are favored to win a slim majority.
That, on its own, would be a tectonic shift in Wisconsin politics. Democrats have not controlled either chamber of the legislature since the 2009-10 session, and flipping even just the Senate would change the dynamic of how Wisconsin is governed in significant ways. For one example, hundreds of Gov. Evers’ appointments to various boards and commissions were held up by an obstructionist Republican majority — that would disappear if Democrats won control. The powerful budget-writing committee has been tilted 12-4 in Republicans’ favor throughout their time in the majority? That balance would change significantly if Democrats controlled the Senate — and would mean one Democratic co-chair of the committee. This would impact literally every aspect of governing in the state, in one form or another.
In 2024, while Republicans won the state’s 10 Electoral College votes, held the state’s swing districts in the House, and won an Assembly majority, it was victories in the State Senate — along with the win from Tammy Baldwin — that proved to be the biggest bright spots for Democrats on an otherwise regrettable night. Senate Dems went five-for-five in competitive races, shrinking the Republican margin from a supermajority to just a three-seat advantage.
New, fairer maps were in place for the 2024 election, but because senators serve four-year terms, those senators in even-numbered districts were up in 2024, but those in odd-numbered districts still served their full term. Now, in 2026, this is the first election in the State Senate — and the legislature, at large — where those old, gerrymandered maps are fully in the rearview mirror.
So, because Democrats made significant gains in 2024 — powered by key wins by Jodi Habush Sinykin, Jamie Wall, Kristin Dassler-Alfheim and Sarah Keyeski, who all flipped seats — they are in position now to take the Senate.
But that is far from a given, and it is very likely that the eventual outcome will have, at most, a three-seat majority. This is Wisconsin, after all.
But there are three districts in the Senate that were won by Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin in 2024 that have not yet been on the ballot under new maps, and if Democrats win just two of those three, they win the Senate majority. If they win all three, it would be an 18-15 Democratic majority — matching the largest Democratic margin in Wisconsin’s State Senate at any point over the last 30+ years.
Talking to The New York Times, Democratic Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein recently said, “I sincerely think this is the most important election that Wisconsin has ever seen.”
Hesselbein, who has helped pilot Senate Democrats into being in this position, is running unopposed for re-election, so she will be there regardless of how this election shakes out.
But on the Republican side, Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu is not seeking re-election. Swing district senators Rob Hutton and Van Wanggaard are not seeking re-election. State Sen. Jesse James, a Republican who was drawn into a new district that matched him up against a Democratic incumbent, eventually chose not to run. In all, six of the 12 Republican senators up this year are not seeking re-election. And in downballot races like these, incumbency matters a great deal.
Of the 17 races on the ballot this year in the State Senate, Republicans are outright favorites in nine of them. But of those senators not up for re-election this year, the balance is 10-6 in Democrats’ favor. Combine that with this year’s projections (as you’ll see below), that makes 15 seats likely to go Republican, and 16 likely to be Democratic — with two seats to determine the majority.
But, as always, every race is different. And each of these races matters. Could a blue wave year put Senate District 25 in play? Could the two districts where an independent candidate (and no Democrat) is running change the dynamics for those seats? Could a longtime Democratic senator be unseated by way of incumbent backlash? Could results in a deep red or deep blue district surprise people?
It’s the voters who will decide.
So, let’s take a look at the decisions at hand for voters. Before you dive into our district-by-district breakdown, a few quick things.
First, find out who your legislators are, and if there is a race on the ballot in your district. Go do a quick search at the Find Your Legislator page, then head over to MyVote Wisconsin’s “What’s On My Ballot” page to see if there’s a race for Senate on your ballot this fall. Always be prepared and have a plan to vote.
Second, as per tradition, we’ve broken this down by category in the breakdown, but given the nomenclature of the prognosticator class, have a breakdown in the more familiar format along the political spectrum:
Safe D(4) - Likely D(0) - Lean D(2) - Toss Up(2) - Lean R(0) - Likely R(1) - Safe R(8)
Third: Here are the senators who are not on the ballot this year, since they were elected to four-year terms under the new maps in 2024:
Republicans: Eric Wimberger, Rob Stafsholt, Mary Felzkowski, Dan Feyen, Patrick Testin, Julian Bradley (6)
Democrats: Dora Drake, LaTonya Johnson, Jodi Habush Sinykin, Sarah Keyeski, Melissa Ratcliff, Kristin Dassler-Alfheim, Bob Wirch, Kelda Roys, Jamie Wall, Brad Pfaff (10)
OK, let’s get to it. The Recombobulation Area’s district-by-district preview of the upcoming elections in the Wisconsin State Senate.
Recombobulation Area Overall Rating: LEAN D
CATEGORIES:
DISTRICTS:
District 1 | District 3 | District 5 | District 7 | District 9 | District 11 | District 13 | District 15 | District 17 | District 19 | District 21 | District 23 | District 25 | District 27 | District 29 | District 31 | District 33
The most competitive races (3)
2 open seats
1 Republican incumbent
Senate District 5
Candidates:
Robyn Vining (Democratic)
Mike Roberts (Republican)
Incumbent: Republican Rob Hutton, not seeking re-election
2024 District Data: Harris+5.9, Baldwin+5.0
In 2018, Robyn Vining became the first Democrat to flip a seat under gerrymandered maps that were heavily tilted toward Republicans. She won in Assembly District 14, in Milwaukee’s western suburbs, by just 138 votes. In 2020, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos targeted her in a variety of ways, but Vining prevailed nonetheless, winning by an almost 8-point margin.
Vining has proven to be a strong candidate — and legislator, as one of the key voices to help pass postpartum Medicaid expansion — in her own right. She’s also has been in the right place at the right time, as her home city of Wauwatosa has become a prime example of a broader shift in the Trump era realignment. This was close to being a 50-50 city when Barack Obama faced Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election, but just 12 years later, was won by Kamala Harris by a 40-point margin1.
Vining has served four terms in the Assembly, and is now seeking office in the Senate. Given the strength of her credentials and the shifting political dynamics of this district, she is the favorite to win this race.
The Republican running in the district is Mike Roberts, making his first bid for political office. Roberts is a physical therapist and the owner and founder of Wisconsin Orthopedic Physical Therapy, which opened in 2013. The Milwaukee Courier has reported on a number of issues involving Roberts’ business, including a several legal matters, including instances where Roberts took his patients to small claims court and others where he was sued by the state Department of Workforce Development for “failing to pay unemployment insurance taxes.”
If Republican incumbent Rob Hutton had run for re-election, this race would be much closer to toss-up territory. But with a political newcomer with a checkered record running against someone who has represented part of the district for eight years and has a track record of winning tough races and fighting for issues that matter, this is the most likely Democratic flip in the entire State Senate.
Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D (FLIP)
Senate District 17
Candidates:
Jenna Jacobson (Democratic)
Howard Marklein (Republican)
Incumbent: Howard Marklein (Assembly 2011-2015; Senate 2015-present)
2024 District Data: Harris+1.0, Baldwin+4.6
Of the three most competitive races in the State Senate, this is the only one in which a Republican incumbent is running for re-election. State Sen. Howard Marklein is seeking his fourth term in the State Senate.
The 71-year-old from Spring Green has served as the co-chair of the powerful budget-writing Joint Committee on Finance since 2021, and has been on the committee since 2015. That means that he’s been at the helm for many a fraught budget process during this era of divided government, where the Democratic governor, Tony Evers, proposes a budget, and the Republican-controlled budget committee votes to get rid of just about every proposal, starting over with a GOP-written budget. Marklein has played a key role in Republican leadership in the legislature during the GOP’s 16-year run controlling both the Senate and Assembly. Along with his role on the Joint Committee on Finance, he was in a leadership position as the President Pro Tempore of the Senate from 2017 to 2021.
While Marklein is certainly more vulnerable than ever in his first election under new maps, he has out-performed the top of the ticket before — and very well could prevail once again. As John Johnson of Marquette University recently pointed out, “In 2022, Marklein won 60% of the vote to Tim Michels’ 52% (in the 2022 boundaries of the district). In the 2018 version of the district, Marklein won 54% to Walker’s 49%. And in 2014, Marklein again outperformed, winning 55% to Walker’s 51%.” Marklein has been a formidable candidate, and incumbency matters a great deal in downballot races, and serving for as long as Marklein has certainly makes him more well-known than a typical candidate, which could be to his advantage.
The Democratic challenger in this race is State Rep. Jenna Jacobson of Oregon, Wisconsin, who is in her second term in the State Assembly, currently representing District 50, which includes parts of southwestern Dane County and all of Green County. She serves on several committees, and is currently the ranking member for the committees on agriculture and on sporting heritage. Jacobson previously served on the Village of Oregon Board of Trustees for several terms between 2017 and 2022. Jacobson won a competitive primary in August, with more than 59% of the vote, defeating two other Democrats.
This southwestern Wisconsin district has been one of the swingier regions in the state. In the 2024 presidential election, some of the biggest county-by-county swings were seen within this very district. Four of the counties that saw the biggest shifts toward Trump from 2020 to 2024 — Lafayette, Iowa, Crawford and Grant — are within District 17. If those rightward shifts continue, and Marklein continues to over-perform downballot, this district could remain red. But given the swingy nature of this region, the environment souring on Trump, and an experienced Assembly representative from the district challenging for the seat, this seat could flip — and be the seat that determines a new Democratic majority in the State Senate.
Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP
Senate District 21
Candidates:
Trevor Jung (Democratic)
Jim Croft (Republican)
Incumbent: Republican Van Wanggaard, not seeking re-election
2024 District Data: Harris+1.2, Baldwin+2.2
Republican incumbent Van Wanggaard is retiring from the Senate after more than a decade serving in the 21st District, and the 74-year-old’s decision not to run for another term could be an especially consequential one for the balance of power in the Senate. The advantage of incumbency typically adds a few points in the overall margin, and because this is an open seat, that advantage will not be a factor.
What certainly was a factor in the changing dynamics in this district, however, were new maps. In 2022, Wanggaard was re-elected without facing a Democratic challenger for a seat that leaned GOP by a nearly 20-point margin. Now, this district includes southwestern Milwaukee County and northern Racine County, including the city of Racine.
Trevor Jung is the Democratic candidate running in this district, and he currently works for the city of Racine as its Transit and Mobility Director. He previously served on the Racine Common Council, elected at the age of 23, the city’s youngest elected alderperson since 1862. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has reported that Jung has a significant fundraising advantage in this race. He’s an energetic young leader who has made his presence known in southeastern Wisconsin in recent years.
The Republican running in the race is Jim Croft, a political newcomer himself. However, his wife, Marina Croft, ran for State Senate in 2020, coming in fourth in a five-candidate Republican primary that was won by now-State Sen. Julian Bradley. This is Jim Croft’s first time running for political office, and his work has been in the private sector, his bio listing a variety of roles and a candidate Q&A listing his current occupation as “IT analyst and small business owner.”
This could be a winnable race for either candidate, and this being an open seat in what’s essentially a 50-50 district means it’s anyone’s ballgame. But right now, Jung appears to have a slight edge going into the final stretch. This one could move from “Toss Up” to “Lean D” if the current trajectory holds.
Bonus fun fact: Trevor Jung recently married Grace Girard, who appeared on (and won!) Season 2 of the FOX reality TV show, “Farmer Wants A Wife.”
Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP
The close race with a Democratic favorite (1)
Senate District 31
Candidates:
Jeff Smith (Democratic)
Michele Magadance Skinner (Republican)
Incumbent: Jeff Smith (Assembly 2007-2011, Senate 2019-present)
2024 District Data: Harris+2.2, Baldwin+4.8
Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith won one of the closest races in the State Senate in 2022, defeating Republican David Estenson by a margin of less than 1% in a district that Donald Trump won by 4% in 2020. New maps make this a slightly more favorable district for Democrats, and was won by Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin by slim margins in 2024. The 71-year-old Smith is seeking re-election for a third term in the Senate.
Smith has been in leadership as the Assistant Minority Leader for Democrats in the Senate since 2023. Along with various roles in public service — which, along with time in both the Assembly (2005-2011) and Senate (2018-present), also included serving as the Town Chair in Brunswick from 2001 to 2007 — he ran a window cleaning business for more than 30 years.
Initially, it seemed like this race might pair two incumbents against each other, which is something that has happened a few times under new maps. In a press release issued on Oct. 16, 2025, Republican State Sen. Jesse James proclaimed, “I AM COMING HOME!”, noting that his hometown of Altoona was in District 31. A few months later, however, James changed his tune and dropped out of the race. Two incumbents facing each other might have made this a toss-up seat, but without James on the ballot, Smith is the favorite.
He’ll now face Republican Michelle Magadance Skinner, who is currently serving in her second term on the Eau Claire County Board. Magadance Skinner is a former TV broadcaster who also ran for State Assembly in 2024, losing to Democrat Jodi Emerson in District 91.
Magadance Skinner has faced some controversy during the campaign, after a report showed she had claimed primary residence in both Wisconsin and Georgia, and also voted in both states — in the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin, and in the U.S. Senate runoff elections that happened on Jan. 5, 2021. The State Senate Democratic Committee sued to remove Magadance Skinner from the ballot, but that suit was eventually dismissed.
This district is in a swingy part of the state, in Eau Claire and the Chippewa Valley, but Smith’s experience in the district as a strong incumbent, along with the controversy his opponent has faced, makes him the favorite to hold this seat.
Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D
The likely Republican open seat (1)
State Senate District 25
Candidates:
Charly Ray (Democratic)
Erik Severson (Republican)
Incumbent: Romaine Quinn, running in Senate District 23
2024 District Data: Trump+13.6, Hovde+10.6
This is a seat Republicans at the top of the ticket carried by double-digits in the 2024 election, so a Democratic victory here is unlikely. But if things go especially well for Democrats in 2026, this is the reach seat that would be in play. This is the northernmost district in the state, bordering Minnesota, Lake Superior, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.
Before a couple rounds of redistricting, District 25 was represented by a Democrat (Janet Bewley), but this part of the state has been trending toward Republicans for several election cycles. The incumbent here is Romaine Quinn, who was drawn into District 23 under new maps, making this an open seat.
Erik Severson is the Republican running for this seat, and is the favorite to win. He previously served in the State Assembly from 2011 to 2015, and is a physician. Severson won a competitive primary against former state representative Angie Sapik, 54% to 46%, in August.
In the general election, Severson will face Democrat Charly Ray, who is in his fourth term serving on the Bayfield County Board after previously serving on the Town of Bayview board for 10 years. He’s also a forester and, with his wife co-owns an independent bookstore in Bayfield.
Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY R
The independent candidates running in safe Republican seats (2)
State Senate District 1
Candidates:
Mark Becker (Independent)
Nic Cravillion (Republican)
Incumbent: André Jacque, not seeking re-election
2024 District Data: Trump+20.3, Hovde+18.7
This is one of two districts where, in a race for an open seat, there is no Democratic candidate running. Instead, there are independent candidates taking on a Republican — perhaps like Dan Osborn in his bid for the U.S. Senate in Nebraska. One of those is Mark Becker, the former chair of the Republican Party of Brown County, who has since left the party during the Trump years. Becker is also the former host of “Rational Revolution” on Civic Media, and has written for The Recombobulation Area.
In this northeastern Wisconsin district, which includes Door County, Becker is facing Nic Cravillion, who won a four-candidate Republican primary with 40.5% of the vote, with the next closest candidate at about 25%. Cravillion has worked as a District Director for the incumbent Republican state senator, Andre Jacque, who endorsed him in this campaign. Cravillion also serves in the military, currently in the Wisconsin Army National Guard, and previously overseas in Afghanistan in the U.S. Army.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
State Senate District 9
Candidates:
Christian Ellis (Independent)
Amy Binsfeld (Republican)
Incumbent: Devin LeMahieu, not seeking re-election
2024 District Data: Trump+15.7, Hovde+15.0
Gov. Evers is not seeking re-election, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is not seeking re-election, and the state senator from District 9, Devin LeMahieu, is also not seeking re-election. LeMahieu has been the Republican Majority Leader since 2021, after former majority leader Scott Fitzgerald was elected to Congress, and has been one of the key figures in the Republican-controlled state legislature for the past five years.
His pending departure has not garnered the same attention as that of Evers or Vos, justifiably, but this level of change happening on so many fronts all at once is quite notable. Whether or not Republicans retain control of the Senate, it will be interesting to see who steps up. State Sen. Patrick Testin of Stevens Point is leading the Senate GOP’s campaign effort this year, and State Sen. Mary Felzkowski of Tomahawk has served as Senate President.
Running to keep the Sheboygan area seat in Republican control is Amy Binsfeld. Binsfeld is a former state representative, serving one term from 2023 to 2025, losing to Democrat Joe Sheehan in the 2024 election. In the 2022 election in which she won, she faced no Republican primary opponent and defeated an independent candidate in the general election.
She’ll face an independent again this year in Christian Ellis, who has served on the Sheboygan County Board since 2022. Ellis also served in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and was deployed to Iraq in 2004.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
The Safe Democrats (4)
2 safe incumbents
2 running unopposed
Senate District 3
Candidates:
Tim Carpenter (Democratic)
No other candidates
Incumbent: Tim Carpenter (Assembly 1985-2003; Senate 2003-present)
2024 District Data: Harris+27.5, Baldwin+32.7
Tim Carpenter has served in the legislature for more than 40 years, first elected to the Assembly in 1984 at the age of 24. He is the longest-serving current member of the legislature. He is running unopposed, as he has many times in his time in the Senate. He has only faced a Republican challenger twice in the seven times he’s been on the ballot.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D (UNCONTESTED)
Senate District 7
Candidates:
Chris Larson (Democratic)
Mike Moeller (Republican)
Incumbent: Chris Larson (2010-present)
2024 District Data: Harris+28.3, Baldwin 31.0
Chris Larson has served in the State Senate since 2011, and is now seeking his fifth term. He’ll face Mike Moeller, who ran in Assembly District 20 in 2024, losing to Democrat Christine Sinicki.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D
State Senate District 15
Candidates:
Mark Spreitzer (Democratic)
Scott Fleming (Republican)
Christopher Dean (Serving People Not Parties)
Incumbent: Mark Spreitzer (Assembly 2015-2023; Senate 2023-present)
2024 District Data: Harris+7.7, Baldwin+10.6
Based on some of the district data, this could be in “Likely D” territory, but Spreitzer significantly outran the top of the ticket in 2022, and is a strong incumbent in a district that Democrats have held since the late 1990s. There might be a year when this seat could be vulnerable for Democrats, but not this one.
Republican challenger Scott Fleming serves on the Johnsville Township Board of Supervisors. Spreitzer is the Minority Caucus Chair for Senate Democrats, and has been serving in the legislature since 2015 — three terms in the Assembly, and now seeking his second in the Senate. This race also features a third-party candidate in Christopher Dean, who is running with the “Serving People Not Parties” party. Dean is a military veteran, serving with the U.S. Army in Iraq.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D
Senate District 27
Candidates:
Dianne Hesselbein (Democratic)
No other candidates
Incumbent: Dianne Hesselbein (Assembly 2013-2023, Senate 2023-present)
2024 District Data: Harris+52.4, Baldwin+51.9
Dianne Hesselbein has served in the legislature since 2013, in the Assembly for 10 years, and in the Senate since winning in 2022, and becoming Minority Leader in 2023. She faces no Republican challenger in this year’s election. If Democrats win a majority in the State Senate, she is poised to become the next Majority Leader.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D (UNCONTESTED)
The safe Republicans (6)
2 open seats
4 safe incumbents
Senate District 11
Candidates:
Adam Duda (Democratic)
Ellen Schutt (Republican)
Incumbent: Steve Nass, not seeking re-election
2024 District data: Trump+27.9, Hovde+26.7
Steve Nass is not seeking re-election after more than a decade in the Senate, which followed more than two decades in the Assembly. He has served in the state legislature since 1990, and most recently, was the co-chair of the powerful Joint Committee for Review of Administrative Rules.
Running to keep the seat Republican is Ellen Schutt, who previously served in the State Assembly from 2023 to 2025. She won a three-candidate primary in August, defeating Sandy Wiedmeyer and Nick Polce, receiving 44% of the vote. In the general election, Schutt will face Adam Duda, who serves as a trustee on the East Troy Village Board.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
Senate District 13
Candidates:
Sasha Ripley (Democratic)
John Jagler (Republican)
Incumbent: John Jagler (Assembly 2013-2021; Senate 2021-present)
2024 District data: Trump+30.8, Hovde+27.8
Jagler has served in the legislature since 2013, for eight years in the Assembly and in the Senate since 2021, to fill the seat occupied by Scott Fitzgerald, who was elected to Congress in 2020. Jagler is the chair of the Committee on Education and the Vice-Chair of the committee on Financial Institutions and Sporting Heritage. He’ll face Sasha Ripley, an educator and first-time candidate.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
Senate District 19
Candidates:
Emily Tseffos (Democratic)
Rachael Cabral-Guevara (Republican)
Incumbent: Rachael Cabral-Guevara (Assembly 2021-2022, Senate 2023-present)
2024 District data: Trump+25.8, Hovde+24.0
Emily Tseffos is the chair of the Democratic Party of Outagamie County, and has been a contributor here at The Recombobulation Area. She also ran for Assembly in 2024. Cabral-Guevara is seeking her second term in the Senate, and is the Chair of the Senate Committee on Health, and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Universities and Technical Colleges.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
Senate District 23
Candidates:
Jeff Foster (Democratic)
Romaine Quinn (Republican)
Incumbent: Jesse James, not seeking re-election
2024 District Data: Trump+35.8, Hovde+31.9
This is the most pro-Trump district on the ballot this year in the State Senate, based on 2024 election results.
Quinn is the Chair of the Committee on Insurance, Housing, Rural Issues and Forestry and Vice-Chair of the Committee on Education. He was elected to be mayor of the city of Rice Lake when he was just 19 years old. He served in the Assembly from 2015 to 2019, and has served in the Senate since 2023. He faces Jeff Foster, a sheep farmer from Dunn County who defeated Richard Pulcher in the Democratic primary in August.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
Senate District 29
Candidates:
Gillian Battino (Democratic)
Cory Tomczyk (Republican)
Incumbent: Cory Tomczyk (Senate 2023-present)
2024 District Data: Trump+19.3, Hovde+16.5
Cory Tomczyk is the Chair of the Committee on Transportation and Local Government and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Agriculture and Revenue. Before running for Senate, he served on the Mosinee School Board from 2006 to 2019. He faces Democrat Gillian Battino, a retired radiologist, who previously ran for State Treasurer in 2022, coming in second in a three-candidate Democratic primary.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
Senate District 33
Candidates:
Mike Van Someren (Democratic)
Chris Kapenga (Republican)
Incumbent: Chris Kapenga (Assembly 2011-2015, Senate 2015-present)
2024 District Data: Trump+33.6, Hovde+34.8
State Sen. Chris Kapenga is currently running for two different roles. He’s running for re-election in the State Senate, and he’s running for Waukesha County Executive. His campaign website only goes to his page promoting his run for County Executive.
The election for Waukesha County Executive has somewhat strange timing, with the primary scheduled for Nov. 17 and the general on Dec. 15. This is an open race following the tragic passing of Paul Farrow, who had served in the role for more than 10 years. He died in July at the age of 61.
Kapenga has been in the legislature since 2011, in the Senate since 2015. He was the Senate President for two terms, from 2021-2025. Van Someren ran for Congress in 2022, losing to Scott Fitzgerald.
Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R
COMING SOON: The Recombobulation Area’s 2026 Election Mega-Preview of the State Assembly
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Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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This is one of just a handful of districts where Eric Hovde did better than Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Most of those districts are in or near Waukesha County