2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Legislature

Could Democrats win a trifecta in 2026? Find our preview of all 17 races in the Senate and all 99 races in the Assembly here.

The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.

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The Nov. 3 election is going to be one of the most consequential elections in recent Wisconsin history. There’s the first open race for governor in 16 years, and the first state legislative election to be held in full since unconstitutional, gerrymandered maps were struck down by the state Supreme Court in late 2023.

For that legislative election, The Recombobulation Area is previewing every race in every district. That’s right, all 116 of them.

This special forecast series — our MEGA-PREVIEW — was published in multiple parts, and we’re putting them all in one place so you can find them all here.

First, my column introducing the series, “Wisconsin’s Fork in the Road.”

Wisconsin’s Fork in the Road

In our State Senate preview, we are forecasting a “Lean Democratic” overall map, with two toss-up races. If Democrats win either of those toss-up races — in District 17 in southwestern Wisconsin or District 21 in southeastern Wisconsin — they will win a majority.

Our “Recombobulation Area Rating” for each race shows the following:

• Safe D: 4

• Likely D: 0

• Lean D: 2

• Toss Up: 2

• Lean R: 0

• Likely R: 1

• Safe R: 8

With the 10 seats held by Democrats and six by Republicans not on the ballot this year, since state senators serve four-year terms and only half of the chamber is up each election cycle, that adds up to:

• GOP: 15

• DEM: 16

• TOSS UP: 2

A majority is won with 17 of 33 seats.

Find our full, district-by-district preview of every election in the State Senate here:

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In the State Assembly, all 99 seats are on the ballot every two years. Currently, Republicans hold a 54-45¹ advantage. If Democrats are able to flip five seats, they will win their first Assembly majority in 16 years. But this will be a tougher task than flipping the Senate, and we have the chamber overall rated as “Lean Republican.”

Our “Recombobulation Area Rating” for each race shows the following:

• Safe D: 26

• Likely D: 12

• Lean D: 9

• Toss Up: 3

• Lean R: 3

• Likely R: 2

• Safe R: 44

Added up, that would be 47 Democratic seats and 49 Republican seats — with three toss-ups to determine the majority. See how that all looks on our map here:

Find our full, district-by-district preview of every election in the State Assembly here:

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Find more of our coverage of each of these races and more on the discombobulating politics of Milwaukee and Wisconsin here at The Recombobulation Area, and on our various channels, like YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

1. Technically, it is 44 Democrats, as State Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez is no longer caucusing with the Democrats after she made threats toward her colleagues and was charged with disorderly conduct. She has since lost in the Aug. 11 Democratic primary in her bid for re-election.