The Recombobulation Area is a 21-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.
Milwaukee wasn’t the only part of the state where voters shifted toward Crowley. He won more counties than Tony Evers did in 2022, and saw many huge shifts in swingy parts of the state from 2024.
Some of these shifts were ones we anticipated. In the August primary, Crowley did especially well in the WOW counties and in southeastern Wisconsin, suggesting he might do well there in the general election, too, especially with Tiffany not being from southeastern Wisconsin, like so many of his Republican predecessors in statewide races.
And indeed, the suburban shift continued, with Crowley becoming the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate in modern history to win more than 40% of the vote in Waukesha County — with room to spare, at 42.4%. He also narrowed margins in Ozaukee County, trailing Tiffany by just 6% there in a county that Tim Michels won by 11% in 2022 and Scott Walker won by more than 40% in 2014.
Two of the counties that Crowley won but Evers didn’t are also in southeastern Wisconsin — Racine and Kenosha. In Racine, Crowley is the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win more votes than the Republican since 2002. Crowley also won in Kenosha, which had gone for Trump all three times he was on the ballot.
But perhaps the most significant shifts came in two of the swingier parts of the state (which just so happen to be places we’ve highlighted at The Recombobulation Area): 1) the Fox Valley and Green Bay, and 2) western Wisconsin and the Driftless region.
Part of the realignment tradeoff for Republicans in the Trump era has been that, while they’re losing some support in the suburbs, they’re gaining in parts of the state with a larger share of white working class voters. The Obama-Trump realignment of the 2010s made places like the Driftless and the Fox Valley more Republican-leaning regions. But of the counties that shifted the most from 2024 to 2026, many of them are in those ever-shifting regions.
In the Fox Valley and northeastern Wisconsin, Winnebago, Outagamie and Brown counties all shifted by double-digit margins toward Democrats. Crowley won in Winnebago and Brown. A Democratic gubernatorial candidate had not won Winnebago since 2006, and not in Brown since 1982.
In western Wisconsin, it wasn’t just a downballot surge that turned the Driftless blue; Crowley did well there, too — holding some of Evers’ strong margins in some parts of the state, expanding in others. Two of the more populous counties were the biggest movers, with La Crosse County going for Crowley by a 22-point margin, and Eau Claire County by a 24-point margin. For each, that’s the first time a Democratic candidate carried these counties by a more than 20-point margin — and the best showing for any gubernatorial candidate in the 21st Century. This is significant for La Crosse, in particular, as this was one of the parts of the state that shifted the most toward Trump in 2024.
And, of course, Dane County came through for Crowley with 80% of voters going for the Democratic candidate — a slightly higher share than either of Tony Evers’ wins.
This mix is a recipe for dominance in Wisconsin elections: Maintain the Dane County turnout and margin powerhouse, run up the margins in Milwaukee, continue closing that gap in Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, lose by less in rural regions, and reverse trends and expand share in swingy areas like the Fox Valley and western Wisconsin. If Crowley and Democrats can maintain this kind of coalition, that is going to be an incredibly potent electoral mix.
Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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