The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
The final Marquette poll of the 2026 election cycle shows David Crowley with a lead over Tom Tiffany in the race for governor. It also shows Democrats with an edge in state legislative elections.
This is significant.
The 2026 election, up and down the ballot, is an extraordinarily big deal for Wisconsin politics. So much has been building to this opportunity for Democrats. Ousting Scott Walker in 2018. Tony Evers’ re-election in 2022. Winning state Supreme Court seats in 2018, 2020, and 2023 to flip the balance of power on the court. Toppling the gerrymander in 2023. Shrinking Republicans’ legislative majorities in 2024. Holding the court’s majority in 2025.
It’s all built to this fork-in-the-road election in Wisconsin, which not only includes the first open race for governor in 16 years, is the first realistic opportunity for a Democratic trifecta in that time, as well.
This is now looking like it could actually happen.
With polls showing Crowley with a lead, it’s not unreasonable to think a strong performance at the top of the ticket could reverberate in Senate and Assembly races downballot. Because the poll also shows Democrats with a generic ballot lead in state legislative races that matches Crowley’s seven-point lead against Tom Tiffany.
In our recent live conversation with Ben Wikler, I asked about a trifecta, and he said, “I think it really could happen. If you look district by district, it's hard to see the path for Republicans to hold on to their majorities in the state Senate at this point…I would feel more likely than not that Democrats are going to win the trifecta, which is such a gigantic deal.”
With that, we’re making a few final week ratings changes to our forecast of the state legislature. All are in favor of Democrats.
The main shift is this one: We’re moving the rating for the balance of power in the State Assembly from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”