The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
With less than 50 days to go before the Nov. 3 election, Todd Allbaugh joined the podcast to recombobulate on the state of the race.
Todd is a former Republican who left the party during the Walker years, was a legislative staffer for former state senator Dale Schultz, and was the host of the “Todd Allbaugh Show” on Civic Media for several years. He’s also from Richland Center, which is right in range of many of the most closely competitive races happening in Wisconsin this year, including ones in the 3rd Congressional District, 51st Assembly District, and the 17th Senate District.
Allbaugh and host Dan Shafer talked about these elections, the race for governor, whether or not there should more than one debate between David Crowley and Tom Tiffany, the potential for a Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin, Democrats seeing an opportunity in the 1st Congressional District (and Mitchell Berman’s strong ad there), and much more.
See a beat-by-beat breakdown of the episode here.
(00:00:15) Intro — welcome back after a short break
(00:01:15) Sponsor: Milwaukee Film's Dialogues Documentary Festival
(00:02:02) Guest introduction: Todd Allbaugh
(00:03:28) State Legislature landscape: post-gerrymander competitiveness, GOP retirements
(00:05:27) Big-picture outlook for Western/Southwest Wisconsin races
(00:06:10) Todd's political background: Dale Schultz, Scott Klug, leaving the GOP in 2011
(00:08:11) 3rd Congressional District: Derrick Van Orden vs. Rebecca Cooke
(00:14:20) Cooke’s big tent, Bernie Sanders' endorsement, authenticity debate, Van Orden's constituent services
(00:17:22) Turning to down-ballot legislative races
(00:18:16) 51st Assembly District: Todd Novak vs. Ben Gruber (Novak's anti-trans ad controversy)
(00:23:35) 17th Senate District: Howard Marklein vs. Jenna Jacobson
(00:33:04) Shifting to the Governor's race: Crowley vs. Tiffany
(00:34:01) Tom Tiffany's plane crash incident
(00:36:02) Crowley's visibility problem: yard signs, social media, name recognition
(00:41:32) Suburban "WOW counties" and swing region dynamics
(00:44:03) How Todd thinks Crowley really won the primary; advice for his campaign
(00:47:00) Top issue: affordability, tariffs, tying Tiffany to Trump
(00:52:16) GOP hypocrisy on "waste, fraud and abuse"
(00:53:06) Debate format debate: only one gubernatorial debate this cycle
(00:56:02) Final predictions: State Senate, Assembly, trifecta odds
(01:00:03) Closing: voter registration reminder, final thoughts, Talarico's Texas Senate race
Watch this episode on our YouTube Channel here.
Audio-only podcast listeners can find this episode on Apple Podcasts (here) or on Spotify (below)
Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.
Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.
Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!
Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.
