It depends if I feel this is a swing for the fences election or let’s not muck this up election. I would go either Rodriguez or Hong. I really like Hong, though. I think Hongs race may help her in Milwaulkee. Madison is going to be ten toes in no matter who it is. I don’t think college towns will shy away from Hong, either.
I don’t discount Barnes based on race. Wi has a tendency to reject candidates in statewide races where a candidate has lost before. This happens on both sides of the political spectrum. Michels, Hovde (Senate), and Daniel Kelly (court race).
This hits it well. Barnes has an image of LOSER and retread. He needs to be showing that he learned something from his 2022 loss and that he is a better candidate in 2026. But as Dan notes, he seems to be the exact opposite - being lamer and acting like he is up 30 points when he's not.
I don't know why you'd want to risk that again. The stakes are way too high to run someone that voters openly don't want (both Dem primary and general election voters).
Thanks for this breakdown. I've seen all candidates speak recently, except Crowley and Roys. Hong and Rodriguez are my top two, and I'm leaning toward Rodriguez (I also liked Brennan). I think Rodriguez has a better chance to win in the general, but I hope Fran's presence in the race will help draw the other candidates in a more populist direction.
Barnes seemed to lack detail in his responses, and Hughes seemed more centrist than progressive (especially tripling down on defending the failed budget deal).
Kelda Roys spoke at a memorial for Alex Pretti at the capitol building in February, and I thought she really came across as campaigning for herself instead of being there for a greater purpose. It felt incredibly gross and turned me off from her permanently. Hong and Rodriguez spoke at the memorial as well and they came across as authentic and not there for themselves.
Hopefully whoever wins the primary can trounce Tiffany in the general. His aw shucks routine might work on some, but Dems running ads about his voting record for the last 18 months should be enough to sink him for the voters who are actually paying attention.
Side note, the link you shared about Rodriguez needing to walk back comments did not seem to reflect that - did you mean to link to something else?
Why should anyone wait for Kaul to move on when he decided to sue individual members of the Lac du Flambeau tribe over restricting fishing just 2 types of fish on only 19 of the 260 lakes in their tribal territories, using an underhanded legal workaround against tribal sovereignty, a move that threatens treaty rights throughout the country? The LDF tribe has done a better job of managing the fish population than the state DNR, thanks to underfunding of fisheries by Tiffany and other state Republicans, but somehow both Evers and Kaul thought it was a good idea to side with the Tiffany team and add wind to the sails of the racists who want to simultaneously blame the tribe for declining fish populations and also do nothing to stop the decline. Someone needs to primary Kaul.
Barnes has seemed quite dull to me this time around. I was most impressed with Roys and Rodriguez at the recent Forum, but only Hong’s answer about data centers seemed to get any attention. I think if Rodriguez could get better answers and policies together about that subject she’d be in a better overall position. I really like Crowley and hope he’ll go for Gwen Moore’s seat when she eventually, deservedly retires.
That’s an interesting POV! I rather like Roys as I feel it’s simply not enough to vote against republican candidates and policies, we have to craft good policies that make lives better. Sounds boring doesn’t it? But, I see that in Roys, the “how can I fix this?” model. We have the first chance in 16 years (longer if you consider the divisive Doyle years) to take the leadership of our once proud state. But holy crap, the Walker era has left a terrible mark. Systems that don’t work. Programs that need repairing. We’ve got a MEDICAID problem. We’ve got a clean water problem. We’ve got a public schools problem. Our schools budgets have been raided for 16 years. And our property tax mess? These are “operations” problems, not political ones, tho Walker did his damnedest to insert political hate and division into everything. I’ve been canvassing for the Dane County Neighborhood Teams for several years in southwest Madison and what I hear at doors is, “help, we’re drowning.” Regulations that create messes, tax money going to businesses rather than the programs that support their employees and their families. This is the quiet work of operations, the kind that when running smoothly we don’t hear a whole lot about. I want someone that can fix the mess and beat Tiffany. I’ve watched two forums and reviewed websites and policy ideas. I’m attending the forum in Madison on June 17. So far, with all that I’ve heard, I think Roys can do that.
Roys was my top choice when Evers won. Hong is my top choice now, but if Roys were to win, I’d still be pretty happy to support her. I definitely don’t see her as an “establishment Dem”, but she also doesn’t seem to spark the energy and volunteer involvement that Hong has garnered. Fearful Dems may caution against enthusiasm, but enthusiasm is what will reach people across the state, and ultimately get people to the polls in November.
Maybe that's it; fearful dems always seem comfortable in cautioning against enthusiasm and always want to play small. That's played a huge role in getting us where we are today, and the time for it has passed.
I'm perhaps being unfair to Roys, but I don't see her as generating any real enthusiasm at scale.
I was listening to Joe Zepecki today on WTMJ give his take on the convention and the straw poll.
Zepecki said that the Dem base wants a candidate they think can win, and one who has coattails that can carry a trifecta into power in November. He also says the straw poll isn't predictive by any means, but it does show what the most intense Dems think. I'm nodding and agreeing, and it matches what I'm feeling from the convention hall.
Then Zepecki says 6th place finisher Mandela Barnes is still the front-runner and favorite, based on name recognition, not trailing in any polls and because straw polls don't reflect all who will be voting in the primary, and those voters like Mandela.
My dogs were startled from me yelling "OH BULLS**T!" If anything. Barnes is disliked even more by casual voters, who have to be asking "This guy again?"
Zepecki was at least honest enough to admit Rodriguez is now with Hong and Barnes as a top 3 tier. But let's get real, does anyone think Barnes is going to gain voters at this point? He's clearly not wanted and Dem voters want an alternative.
Thanks for this Dan. Listened to all of the candidates yesterday at the convention. Sara gave her best speech thus far, Fran was very dynamic. Republican social media is urging Republican voters to vote for Fran in the Primary, they think she is the easiest to beat.
Who will bring out the Milwaukee vote? That seems to me to be one of the biggest issues. I hate the "electabiliy" argument but in a statewide race, I think it is a thing. Will "no data centers" (WTF other candidates!?) overcome?
That was the whole theory of Barnes' case in 2022, and it failed miserably. And Dems have been pulling over 80% of the vote in MKE consistently outside of 2024 (when a lot of bros got tricked by social media, and that ain't happening again).
Plus, play some of Tom Tiffany's greatest hits (racist dog-whistle version) and remind people that he will let ICE run wild on our streets and let cops manhandle anyone of color. It won't matter who the Dem candidate is then, and the same words will play in the suburbs to Dems' advantage.
I think the "electability" argument is especially important in terms of thinking about who can win by 5+ points, which likely gives a Dem trifecta, and a huge chance for real change and to correct the wrongs of the last 15 years.
Personally I could get behind Barnes or Hong, but I’m nervous about either of them because of race, ethnicity, and policy thoughts. Sarah Godlewski could help as Lt Governor candidate, especially if there was camaraderie with Gov, AG and Secretary of State candidates like there was in 2018. I was behind Missy Hughes but disappointed to hear of her support for the surplus spending deal, words that have a nice ring to them but actually would have resulted in a deficit for several years.
It depends if I feel this is a swing for the fences election or let’s not muck this up election. I would go either Rodriguez or Hong. I really like Hong, though. I think Hongs race may help her in Milwaulkee. Madison is going to be ten toes in no matter who it is. I don’t think college towns will shy away from Hong, either.
I don’t discount Barnes based on race. Wi has a tendency to reject candidates in statewide races where a candidate has lost before. This happens on both sides of the political spectrum. Michels, Hovde (Senate), and Daniel Kelly (court race).
This hits it well. Barnes has an image of LOSER and retread. He needs to be showing that he learned something from his 2022 loss and that he is a better candidate in 2026. But as Dan notes, he seems to be the exact opposite - being lamer and acting like he is up 30 points when he's not.
I don't know why you'd want to risk that again. The stakes are way too high to run someone that voters openly don't want (both Dem primary and general election voters).
Thanks for this breakdown. I've seen all candidates speak recently, except Crowley and Roys. Hong and Rodriguez are my top two, and I'm leaning toward Rodriguez (I also liked Brennan). I think Rodriguez has a better chance to win in the general, but I hope Fran's presence in the race will help draw the other candidates in a more populist direction.
Barnes seemed to lack detail in his responses, and Hughes seemed more centrist than progressive (especially tripling down on defending the failed budget deal).
Kelda Roys spoke at a memorial for Alex Pretti at the capitol building in February, and I thought she really came across as campaigning for herself instead of being there for a greater purpose. It felt incredibly gross and turned me off from her permanently. Hong and Rodriguez spoke at the memorial as well and they came across as authentic and not there for themselves.
Hopefully whoever wins the primary can trounce Tiffany in the general. His aw shucks routine might work on some, but Dems running ads about his voting record for the last 18 months should be enough to sink him for the voters who are actually paying attention.
Side note, the link you shared about Rodriguez needing to walk back comments did not seem to reflect that - did you mean to link to something else?
Kelda has run for a lot of offices in the last 15 years. She really needs to stay where she's at, and wait for Kaul to move on and make an AG run.
Why should anyone wait for Kaul to move on when he decided to sue individual members of the Lac du Flambeau tribe over restricting fishing just 2 types of fish on only 19 of the 260 lakes in their tribal territories, using an underhanded legal workaround against tribal sovereignty, a move that threatens treaty rights throughout the country? The LDF tribe has done a better job of managing the fish population than the state DNR, thanks to underfunding of fisheries by Tiffany and other state Republicans, but somehow both Evers and Kaul thought it was a good idea to side with the Tiffany team and add wind to the sails of the racists who want to simultaneously blame the tribe for declining fish populations and also do nothing to stop the decline. Someone needs to primary Kaul.
Barnes has seemed quite dull to me this time around. I was most impressed with Roys and Rodriguez at the recent Forum, but only Hong’s answer about data centers seemed to get any attention. I think if Rodriguez could get better answers and policies together about that subject she’d be in a better overall position. I really like Crowley and hope he’ll go for Gwen Moore’s seat when she eventually, deservedly retires.
I think Roys’ failure to gain traction is more a result of her being associated with “establishment Dems” than anything else.
That’s an interesting POV! I rather like Roys as I feel it’s simply not enough to vote against republican candidates and policies, we have to craft good policies that make lives better. Sounds boring doesn’t it? But, I see that in Roys, the “how can I fix this?” model. We have the first chance in 16 years (longer if you consider the divisive Doyle years) to take the leadership of our once proud state. But holy crap, the Walker era has left a terrible mark. Systems that don’t work. Programs that need repairing. We’ve got a MEDICAID problem. We’ve got a clean water problem. We’ve got a public schools problem. Our schools budgets have been raided for 16 years. And our property tax mess? These are “operations” problems, not political ones, tho Walker did his damnedest to insert political hate and division into everything. I’ve been canvassing for the Dane County Neighborhood Teams for several years in southwest Madison and what I hear at doors is, “help, we’re drowning.” Regulations that create messes, tax money going to businesses rather than the programs that support their employees and their families. This is the quiet work of operations, the kind that when running smoothly we don’t hear a whole lot about. I want someone that can fix the mess and beat Tiffany. I’ve watched two forums and reviewed websites and policy ideas. I’m attending the forum in Madison on June 17. So far, with all that I’ve heard, I think Roys can do that.
Roys was my top choice when Evers won. Hong is my top choice now, but if Roys were to win, I’d still be pretty happy to support her. I definitely don’t see her as an “establishment Dem”, but she also doesn’t seem to spark the energy and volunteer involvement that Hong has garnered. Fearful Dems may caution against enthusiasm, but enthusiasm is what will reach people across the state, and ultimately get people to the polls in November.
Maybe that's it; fearful dems always seem comfortable in cautioning against enthusiasm and always want to play small. That's played a huge role in getting us where we are today, and the time for it has passed.
I'm perhaps being unfair to Roys, but I don't see her as generating any real enthusiasm at scale.
(waves from the near east side)
Swap the name Roys with Hong, and I could've written this. Other than preferred choice of candidate, we're 110% in agreement.
Seems like she's a politician through and through. I think people are sick of that and want someone a little more real and outside the box
100%
I was listening to Joe Zepecki today on WTMJ give his take on the convention and the straw poll.
Zepecki said that the Dem base wants a candidate they think can win, and one who has coattails that can carry a trifecta into power in November. He also says the straw poll isn't predictive by any means, but it does show what the most intense Dems think. I'm nodding and agreeing, and it matches what I'm feeling from the convention hall.
Then Zepecki says 6th place finisher Mandela Barnes is still the front-runner and favorite, based on name recognition, not trailing in any polls and because straw polls don't reflect all who will be voting in the primary, and those voters like Mandela.
My dogs were startled from me yelling "OH BULLS**T!" If anything. Barnes is disliked even more by casual voters, who have to be asking "This guy again?"
Zepecki was at least honest enough to admit Rodriguez is now with Hong and Barnes as a top 3 tier. But let's get real, does anyone think Barnes is going to gain voters at this point? He's clearly not wanted and Dem voters want an alternative.
Thanks for this Dan. Listened to all of the candidates yesterday at the convention. Sara gave her best speech thus far, Fran was very dynamic. Republican social media is urging Republican voters to vote for Fran in the Primary, they think she is the easiest to beat.
Who will bring out the Milwaukee vote? That seems to me to be one of the biggest issues. I hate the "electabiliy" argument but in a statewide race, I think it is a thing. Will "no data centers" (WTF other candidates!?) overcome?
That was the whole theory of Barnes' case in 2022, and it failed miserably. And Dems have been pulling over 80% of the vote in MKE consistently outside of 2024 (when a lot of bros got tricked by social media, and that ain't happening again).
Plus, play some of Tom Tiffany's greatest hits (racist dog-whistle version) and remind people that he will let ICE run wild on our streets and let cops manhandle anyone of color. It won't matter who the Dem candidate is then, and the same words will play in the suburbs to Dems' advantage.
I think the "electability" argument is especially important in terms of thinking about who can win by 5+ points, which likely gives a Dem trifecta, and a huge chance for real change and to correct the wrongs of the last 15 years.
Thanks for the great overview, Dan. This is especially helpful as I'm relatively new to Wisconsin.
Personally I could get behind Barnes or Hong, but I’m nervous about either of them because of race, ethnicity, and policy thoughts. Sarah Godlewski could help as Lt Governor candidate, especially if there was camaraderie with Gov, AG and Secretary of State candidates like there was in 2018. I was behind Missy Hughes but disappointed to hear of her support for the surplus spending deal, words that have a nice ring to them but actually would have resulted in a deficit for several years.