The Recombobulation Area is a 21-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.
About a month ago, I hosted a podcast with Congressman Mark Pocan where he was talking about how he thought the 1st Congressional District was flippable, and Republican incumbent Bryan Steil was vulnerable.
While this seemed possible, it also seemed unlikely. Steil had outrun the top of the ticket in several elections, including in 2024, when he won by a double-digit margin in a district Trump won by 4%. Steil was also a fairly prolific fundraiser, so it seemed that if he did face a challenge, he’d have the resources to counter it. Plus, he was facing a candidate in Mitchell Berman who, while an accomplished individual as an ER nurse, was running as a first-time candidate, and that can be challenging.
But Berman surprised everybody en route to a four-point victory over Steil. Berman did well in Kenosha County, and perhaps his success there was part of why Crowley was able to flip the county in the statewide race, too. He also did well in Rock County, one of the other big movers of the election.
Berman defeating Steil proved to be the high-water mark of the crest of the blue wave in Wisconsin, which now has a 4-4 congressional delegation after two terms with a 6-2 Republican advantage.
Steil also seemed like the most likely Republican candidate to be running for U.S. Senate in 2028. Not so more.
Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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