The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
The Marquette University Law School Poll is the gold standard survey of public opinion in the state of Wisconsin, and here at The Recombobulation Area, we break down every new poll.
I also attend each of these poll results release presentations in person at Marquette University Law School, to hear the full story from Charles Franklin, executive director of the poll, and co-host of the program, Derek Mosley, director of the Lubar Center. You can watch that here, and find my live thread of results here:
Franklin also noted that there is only one more Marquette poll planned before the Nov. 3 election. So, after this, we’ll only be getting one more survey of public opinion before the election — making this one all the more important.
Let’s dive in.
David Crowley continues to lead Tom Tiffany, with independents favoring the Democratic candidate
The headline results from the poll show that, with likely voters1, Democratic candidate David Crowley leads Republican Tom Tiffany by a slim margin of 49% to 46%.
Crowley has led Tiffany in each of the two head-to-head polls thus far, with his support holding firm at 49% from the August poll, and Tiffany showing a slight increase from 44% to 46% from August to September.
Independent voters are overwhelmingly favoring Crowley in this race. The Milwaukee County Executive leads the 7th District Congressman by a whopping 26-point margin — 44%-18% — among independent voters. But many independent voters remain undecided, and the number of undecided independents has grown slightly from 30% to 38% from August to September.
Overall, Crowley’s three-point lead is similar to the last September Marquette poll of a Wisconsin gubernatorial election, where Democrat Tony Evers led Republican challenger Tim Michels by a three-point margin in 2022. That race, however, was in a midterm election cycle more advantageous to Republicans, and involved an incumbent governor, so there are some critical differences.
But the takeaway on the top headline result is this: You’d rather be Crowley than Tiffany at this stage in the race. Crowley’s continued advantage with independent voters is significant, as is leading in back-to-back post-primary polls. But this is a slim lead that’s within the margin of error, and Wisconsin being Wisconsin, we should always expect this race to be close. Either candidate could win in November.
The statewide election in Wisconsin is a Toss-Up. You expected something else?
As the results of this latest poll rolled through newsfeeds, many reacted with surprise that Crowley wasn’t ahead by an even greater margin. Many polls of the national environment in recent weeks have shown Democrats increasing their advantage over Republicans, as gas prices continue to soar and President Trump’s approval ratings continue to crater.
But there are key differences between a state-specific race like those for governor and the state legislature and a contest for federal office like Congress or U.S. Senate. And Crowley’s is not the only slim lead identified in this survey, as the generic ballot in the state legislature shows just a three-point advantage for Democrats.
