The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
For the first time in a generation, Democrats have an opportunity to win control of the Wisconsin State Legislature.
While technically true at the outset of every fall general election cycle in an even-numbered year, that hasn’t been a realistic outcome for quite some time. But in the upcoming fall elections, both the Senate and Assembly could realistically flip from red to blue, giving Democrats control of both legislative chambers for the first time since the 2009-10 session.
Of course, Republicans could realistically win majorities in both the Senate and Assembly, too.
That’s Wisconsin for you. This 50-50 purple state where statewide elections are often decided by decimal-point margins should have a legislature that reflects that reality. That is finally the case for the first time, in full, in 2026.
Because of ultra-gerrymandered maps that warped Wisconsin politics for a generation, Republicans enjoyed outsized majorities in the legislative branch from 2012 to 2024.
But that all began to change in 2023 after the Spring Election that sent Janet Protasiewicz to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. On Dec. 22, 2023, the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Wisconsin’s state legislative maps, ruling them unconstitutional. A fraught process followed and the GOP-controlled legislature eventually passed a bill for new maps, and on Feb. 19, 2024, Gov. Tony Evers signed those new maps into law.
So, for the 99-seat Wisconsin State Assembly, where representatives serve two-year terms, those new maps were fully in place for the 2024 election. The result was a 54-to-45 seat Republican majority. That represented a 10-seat gain for Democrats even in a year where Donald Trump won statewide, but Republicans retained majority control of the chamber.
In the Wisconsin State Senate, Democrats found even more success, winning five of five closely-contested races. But because state senators serve four-year terms, only half of those seats in the 33-seat Senate were on the 2024 ballot.
Now, in 2026, the rest of the state Senate is on the ballot, making this the first fully post-Gerrymander election in the Wisconsin State Legislature. Either party could realistically win a majority. As it should be.
Here at The Recombobulation Area, we have made it a tradition to preview every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature every two years.
Our work on previews like this become a staple of fall election coverage in Wisconsin, and have earned us a “Best Public Service Story or Series” honor from the Milwaukee Press Club.
And now, in 2026, we will be back with another series, previewing every race in this landmark election for the state of Wisconsin.
While the Democratic gubernatorial primary has been the most newsworthy element of Wisconsin’s 2026 election cycle, what’s happening downballot may ultimately have even more of an impact on what happens in state government in 2027 and beyond.
Either David Crowley or Tom Tiffany could preside over trifecta control — holding the Senate, Assembly and governorship — for each of their respective parties, or we could see a new version of divided government in Wisconsin.
A Democratic governor with a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Republican majority in the Assembly? That’s entirely possible (and might even be the most likely outcome). A Republican governor with a Republican majority in the Senate and a Democratic majority in the Assembly? That’s in play. A one-seat majority in each chamber? That could certainly happen.
This is why each and every race matters — and why we work so hard on this biennial preview series. Any individual race could have major implications for a myriad of issues facing the state of Wisconsin.
We’ll be working on this series in the coming weeks. While we certainly have developed our own process for putting this together, if you have press releases, news tips or any other information you’d want to share on candidates or these races, email us at therecombobulationarea@gmail.com.
For now, revisit our previous previews in the links below.
And subscribe to help support our work — and so you don’t miss this preview when it arrives in your inbox.
2020:
2022:
2024:
For the 2024 election preview, we worked with Civic Media for an especially extensive guide that included a comprehensive voter guide with graphics and links and interactive features for each and every race. Revisit that Voter Guide here.
2026: COMING SOON
See you back here after Labor Day!
Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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