The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
State Navigate has released a new poll on the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, the first significant polling since former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes dropped out of the race. The poll again shows State Rep. Francesca Hong with a significant lead, with 44%, well ahead of the next closest candidate — Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 22%.
After Hong and Crowley, State Sen. Kelda Roys polled at 11% and Joel Brennan, the former Department of Administration secretary, polled at 5%.
The poll was conducted from Monday, Aug. 3, to Thursday, Aug. 6, and included 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters, and has a margin of error of 2.3%. State Navigate released the poll in a livestream on Aug. 7 (beginning at about 4:30, topline results at 6:45).
The big takeaway here is that Francesca Hong maintained a sizable lead over the rest of the field, despite some negative news cycles that had some Wisconsin Democrats worried.
Both Crowley and Roys grew their numbers from the prior poll from July 28, each up 7%, but are still well behind the frontrunner. This is probably behind where Crowley needed to be to be in position to catch Hong, and while this is probably the best poll yet for Roys, but neither are close.
The poll also showed that 22% of the ballot is already in, and of those, a not-insignificant vote share is going to candidates who dropped out — 13% to Barnes and 10% to Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez.
Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate, also surveyed hypothetical matchups if candidates lower in the polls were to drop out.
As we’ve seen in poll after poll in this race, Hong continues to maintain especially strong support among younger voters. The poll showed her with 79% of the vote in the 18-29 age group and 68% in the 30-44 age group.
I also took a look at a few other crosstabs relating to the field in Milwaukee, the WOW counties, and the BOW counties.
See more from the poll here, see State Navigate’s extensive briefing here, and take a look at the crosstabs and see what you might find for yourself here.
Oh, and one more thing…
This isn’t data from the State Navigate poll, but rather the Marquette poll, but it pertains to Gov. Tony Evers — who has obviously become a factor in the campaign, backing Crowley.
Tony Evers has often been referred to as the most popular politician in Wisconsin.
That's largely been true in data from the Marquette poll. Maybe 1 and 1A with Tammy Baldwin, but Evers is typically a bit ahead. The most recent survey of his approval rating showed it up to a net +6.
But that same poll also showed his "Strongly Approve" number at the lowest of his eight years in office, at just 19%.
That's the first time his "Strongly Approve" number is below 20% dating back to 2019. At the same time, his "Somewhat Approve" number is also the highest it's been in eight years, at 33%.
In October 2024, he was at 30% "Strongly Approve" and 21% "Somewhat Approve" with a similar overall net approval rating (+7).
The majority of Wisconsinites may still approve of the job Tony Evers is doing. But there are signs the strength of that approval has waned in recent years.
Perhaps that's been a factor in this primary, too.
PLUS: Go BEYOND THE GOVERNOR'S RACE with our overview of every statewide, congressional and state legislative primary:
Beyond the race for governor: These are the *other* partisan primaries happening in Wisconsin on Aug. 11
The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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I wouldn’t be too confident about Hong’s lead holding up. Multi-candidate primaries are volatile and Roys and Brennan’s late breaking support is soft and could switch to Crowley. In addition Hong’s growth seems stalled out in the mid 40s despite all the candidates dropping out suggesting she’s near her ceiling. And with the tenor of the coverage it’s likely that the undecideds deciding now are breaking against her. Plus there’s polling error to consider. The make up of Hong and Crowley’s winning coalitions are comparable to El-Sayed and Stevens’ in Michigan. If polls are blowing it to the same degree here, Crowley could be on the verge of an upset.
I’m not saying Crowley winning is likely; I’d still rather be Hong right now. But relatively few smallish things need to break in his favor to win, certainly much less than you’d think given their positions in this poll. I am confident though, that the final margin of victory between Hong and Crowley will be less that the combined totals for Rodriguez and Barnes, ie WEC decided this primary by not letting people recast their absentee votes.