The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.
Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.
State Sen. Kelda Roys was one of four Democrats who saw the race through to the end. Like in 2018, she finished third — this time by a smaller margin, just over 7.5%.
But Roys overperformed that statewide number in a critical location — her home turf of Dane County. As has often become the case in the statewide count, the total number of votes from Dane County outnumbered the total number of votes in the much more populous Milwaukee County (just barely, but still). And while Roys only got about 5% of the vote in Milwaukee County, she gained 11% in Dane.
State Sen. Kelda Roys was one of four Democrats who saw the race through to the end. Like in 2018, she finished third — this time by a smaller margin, just over 7.5%.
But Roys overperformed that statewide number in a critical location — her home turf of Dane County. As has often become the case in the statewide count, the total number of votes from Dane County outnumbered the total number of votes in the much more populous Milwaukee County (just barely, but still). And while Roys only got about 5% of the vote in Milwaukee County, she gained 11% in Dane.
Hong’s eventual margin over Crowley in Dane County was about 7%, or about 11,000 votes. Kelda Roys received more than 16,000 of the roughly 59,000 votes she gained statewide in Dane County alone.
So, maybe some underestimated the presence Roys would have in her home county. Maybe Mandela Barnes dropping out meant some of the non-socialist progressive voters shifted their choice to Roys in the final days. Maybe there are other factors involved. But instead of taking votes from the top non-Hong option in Crowley, Roys may have cut into Hong’s vote share just enough to tip the balance of an election decided by less than 4,000 votes.
Some close to the Crowley camp thought Joel Brennan’s continued presence in the race could tip a close result in Hong’s favor, believing Brennan voters would otherwise go to Crowley (which tracks). They were much less concerned with Roys remaining in the race.
Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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Given that Hong had such a big lead right before the election, it seems more likely that David Crowley would have been the second choice for people who voted for Roys, who was not really a viable contender by Election Day. I am guessing most Roys voters were not going to vote for Hong.