The WisDems convention was last weekend and the Democratic primary for governor is heating up. Dan Shafer, Kate Duffy, Pat Kreitlow and Dr. Kristin Lyerly discuss all the latest.
I think the reason Mandela Barnes did not do well is because is did so poorly in running for senate. I thought his campaign was BAD. It never challenged Ron Johnson, who should have been very beatable. I also have a friend who still holds it against him that he lied about his education.
Kate says the problem with Barnes isn't that he lost, but it is. We've seen how Barnes failed to go after a target-rich opponent in Ron Johnson (saying "look at this crooked weirdo. Get him out" should have been central). Mandela and his lame consultants played scared, and got railroaded by racist GOP ads anyway. And what is different with him in 2026? If anything, he's being even softer.
As mentioned near the end, it's really a question of who gets the non-Hong, non/anti-Barnes votes as the candidate who can win big and bring a majority with him/her, and that feels like Rodriguez. Hopefully Kelda drops out around July 4 after staying at 5% after this ad buy, as I worry that her ego could let a candidate many Dems don't want to slip by at 25%.
Re: this discussion about Barnes/Hong and how the terms around “socialist” could be weaponized against them. This Brookfield resident is scarred from how effective that label and other leftist type labels along with the “left outside money” commentary worked in the Brookfield mayoral race to both demonize a candidate and scare citizens to drive turnout. I am very very worried about this is the governors race.
Yes. Hard-core Dems and a group of younger voters may know exactly what this means and prefer the outcomes. But casual low-info voters in a lot of corners of the state? They're not going to take the time to try to understand it, they'll just put up a barrier to that candidate.
Then add in that it would be coming from an Asian-American from Madison, and you can easily see how the GOP would try to "other" Hong. She can win in a big enough Dem year and maybe bring in some voters that others wouldn't. But I bet it would be much harder for Dems to get a trifecta with Fran up front.
Now if Fran wants to be Mayor of Madison, she's probably going to overperform and likely win.
No insights here. Too much kibbitzing. What MESSAGES? And Hong coming in a close second and being a Democratic Socialist and Mamdani doing sooo well, no real discussion about her. SO WHAT'S UP? Because of the restaurant issue? What?
Too bad the straw poll didn't have ranked choice voting - that could have given more insights into how people are leaning. Also not sure how predictive this poll will be for the actual primary. I'm guessing Barnes will still perform pretty well (though probably/hopefully not win) based on name recognition alone.
I appreciated this. Keep in mind, most, or at least many, state Dems are quite conservative, I think, and relatively wealthy (esp. those who go to conventions). Look at the war that erupted when members wanted to form a Progressive Caucus a decade or so ago. I'm not surprised that Rodriguez won the straw poll. She's the orderly choice. Also, I think some are still smarting from the party's big fat thumb on the Senatorial primary scale to clear the way for Barnes. At least that's what it felt like. That was not really a fair primary, was it? I agree, we want somebody who will DO something and not just talk pretty about it.
This is evidence that activists are not interested in winning. Okay, Rodriguez is an exception, she could actually win against Tiffany pretty easily. Hong, AOC and Buttigieg are all high risk candidates. To be clear, they are all to my right on economic issues, but each in various ways is likely to create openings on the right because of a. general vibes, or b. actual disqualifying statements. To be clear, I love AOC much much much and would like to see her go for the US Senate and some day maybe in a less fraught environment run for president and win. But in 2028, the stakes are high and we need a centrist.
I think the reason Mandela Barnes did not do well is because is did so poorly in running for senate. I thought his campaign was BAD. It never challenged Ron Johnson, who should have been very beatable. I also have a friend who still holds it against him that he lied about his education.
Kate says the problem with Barnes isn't that he lost, but it is. We've seen how Barnes failed to go after a target-rich opponent in Ron Johnson (saying "look at this crooked weirdo. Get him out" should have been central). Mandela and his lame consultants played scared, and got railroaded by racist GOP ads anyway. And what is different with him in 2026? If anything, he's being even softer.
As mentioned near the end, it's really a question of who gets the non-Hong, non/anti-Barnes votes as the candidate who can win big and bring a majority with him/her, and that feels like Rodriguez. Hopefully Kelda drops out around July 4 after staying at 5% after this ad buy, as I worry that her ego could let a candidate many Dems don't want to slip by at 25%.
Re: this discussion about Barnes/Hong and how the terms around “socialist” could be weaponized against them. This Brookfield resident is scarred from how effective that label and other leftist type labels along with the “left outside money” commentary worked in the Brookfield mayoral race to both demonize a candidate and scare citizens to drive turnout. I am very very worried about this is the governors race.
Two hard line loaded terms.
One - Socialist: The turn is still happening. Running as a socialist will be fine probably in 2030, but not yet. The generational shift is huge.
Two - Defund the police: This is a loser. You know who hates that talk? Working class black and hispanic voters who are essential for any Dem victory.
Yes. Hard-core Dems and a group of younger voters may know exactly what this means and prefer the outcomes. But casual low-info voters in a lot of corners of the state? They're not going to take the time to try to understand it, they'll just put up a barrier to that candidate.
Then add in that it would be coming from an Asian-American from Madison, and you can easily see how the GOP would try to "other" Hong. She can win in a big enough Dem year and maybe bring in some voters that others wouldn't. But I bet it would be much harder for Dems to get a trifecta with Fran up front.
Now if Fran wants to be Mayor of Madison, she's probably going to overperform and likely win.
No insights here. Too much kibbitzing. What MESSAGES? And Hong coming in a close second and being a Democratic Socialist and Mamdani doing sooo well, no real discussion about her. SO WHAT'S UP? Because of the restaurant issue? What?
Great conversation! 👏
Too bad the straw poll didn't have ranked choice voting - that could have given more insights into how people are leaning. Also not sure how predictive this poll will be for the actual primary. I'm guessing Barnes will still perform pretty well (though probably/hopefully not win) based on name recognition alone.
I appreciated this. Keep in mind, most, or at least many, state Dems are quite conservative, I think, and relatively wealthy (esp. those who go to conventions). Look at the war that erupted when members wanted to form a Progressive Caucus a decade or so ago. I'm not surprised that Rodriguez won the straw poll. She's the orderly choice. Also, I think some are still smarting from the party's big fat thumb on the Senatorial primary scale to clear the way for Barnes. At least that's what it felt like. That was not really a fair primary, was it? I agree, we want somebody who will DO something and not just talk pretty about it.
https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/wispolitics-state-affairs-wisconsin-dem-activists-prefer-rodriguez-hong-for-governor-in-26-buttigieg-aoc-for-president-in-28/
This is evidence that activists are not interested in winning. Okay, Rodriguez is an exception, she could actually win against Tiffany pretty easily. Hong, AOC and Buttigieg are all high risk candidates. To be clear, they are all to my right on economic issues, but each in various ways is likely to create openings on the right because of a. general vibes, or b. actual disqualifying statements. To be clear, I love AOC much much much and would like to see her go for the US Senate and some day maybe in a less fraught environment run for president and win. But in 2028, the stakes are high and we need a centrist.