The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer.
Republicans have controlled the State Assembly for the last 16 years, and for 30 of the last 32 years. But in 2026, Democrats have a realistic chance at flipping the Assembly for the first time in a long time.
In 2024, the first election held under new maps, Democrats made significant gains, picking up 10 seats to narrow Republicans’ majority. Now, they’re hoping to go the rest of the way. If they flip five seats, they’ll win control of the Assembly.
Democratic Leader Greta Neubauer, the state representative from District 66, joined us to talk about her party’s chances to make it happen this year.
“I think it's finally going to be the year for us to win this Democratic trifecta after a long time in the making,” she said.
We talked about their strategy in finding known candidates in their districts — many of whom are current or former educators — and how that’s helping counteract the billionaire-funded attack ads that have taken over this campaign, up and down the ticket. We talked about what Democrats would seek to do if they won a majority, and how to balance long-stalled bills with a more ambitious governing agenda.
We also talked about how Democrats forced a vote on postpartum Medicaid expansion and Gail’s Law on the final day of the legislative session, and how some creative maneuvers from Neubauer and Democrats led to these bills finally getting passed after years of Republican obstruction.
Neubauer also served with David Crowley during his time in the Assembly, and we talked about their experience together and her thoughts on his run for governor.
“The thing about David, which I hope people are seeing through this campaign, is that he really is just a deeply caring person who is in public service because he wants to make the lives of his neighbors better,” she said.
We also discussed the increasingly competitive congressional race that’s happening where she resides in the 1st District, with Mitchell Berman looking to unseat Bryan Steil.
“I’ve been getting a great reception for Mitchell (Berman) on the doors,” she said. “I think people are very interested in somebody new. And they do just see Brian Steil as someone who has really done nothing to help them and their family make ends meet — and in fact has made things worse.”
So, is this the year where Democrats can flip the Assembly?
“We are feeling very hopeful about the moment that we're in,” said Neubauer. “We, of course, are seeing a lot of frustration with Donald Trump and Republicans here in Wisconsin. People are unhappy about their costs and they are recognizing that 16 years of Republican leadership in the Assembly and Senate has not made them better off.”
Find a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode here.
00:00:14 – Intro: Two weeks out from Election Day
00:01:30 – Can Assembly Democrats flip five seats?
00:03:31 – What’s different this year: fair maps and candidates with a longer runway
00:06:25 – Why so many educators are running (the Joe Sheehan model)
00:09:02 – Uihlein, Hendricks and the billionaire money in Assembly races
00:12:06 – Closing the “Walker loophole”
00:14:14 – What a Democratic trifecta would do first
00:19:16 – Winning back faith in “small d” democracy
00:20:40 – How the new maps changed the Assembly
00:22:43 – Inside the amendment maneuver that forced the postpartum Medicaid and Gail’s Law votes
00:29:05 – David Crowley: serving alongside the Democratic nominee for governor
00:33:42 – The congressional race: Brian Steil vs. Mitchell Berman
00:37:25 – Please bring back the homemade campaign website
00:39:17 – Brewers in the World Series
00:41:17 – Final thoughts: show up and vote
Watch this episode on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:
For audio-only listeners, you can find The Recombobulation Area podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Here’s this episode, embedded below:
