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Greetings, readers:

While I’m away, I wanted to make I’m not leaving you too discombobulated. So, we’ve shared a few stories from our archives (and maybe a tweet or two) to help you recombobulate a bit…

… but now, it’s your turn to help me out. After a couple weeks away from the grind of the day-to-day news cycle, I will inevitably be returning after Labor Day a bit discombobulated.

So, let’s recombobulate together. Send me your questions, and upon my return, I’ll write up some answers. There’s so much happening in Milwaukee and Wisconsin, and once we get past Labor Day, that’s when campaign season really revs up, so now is a perfect time to reset with you, our wonderful, good-looking, loyal readers.

Here’s how you can send in your questions:

Email:

• therecombobulationarea@gmail.com

Social media:

• Twitter, @DanRShafer

• Instagram, @therecombobulationarea

• Facebook, @therecombobulationarea

• Bluesky, @danshafer.bsky.social

• Threads, @danshafer

And, our preferred option, right here on Substack:

You can also join other subscribers in our official Recombobulation Area group chat, and I’ll be checking that, too.

See you all soon!

Let’s keep recombobulating,
Dan Shafer, founding editor of The Recombobulation Area

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Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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For the first time in a generation, Democrats have an opportunity to win control of the Wisconsin State Legislature.

While technically true at the outset of every fall general election cycle in an even-numbered year, that hasn’t been a realistic outcome for quite some time. But in the upcoming fall elections, both the Senate and Assembly could realistically flip from red to blue, giving Democrats control of both legislative chambers for the first time since the 2009-10 session.

Of course, Republicans could realistically win majorities in both the Senate and Assembly, too.

That’s Wisconsin for you. This 50-50 purple state where statewide elections are often decided by decimal-point margins should have a legislature that reflects that reality. That is finally the case for the first time, in full, in 2026.

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Because of ultra-gerrymandered maps that warped Wisconsin politics for a generation, Republicans enjoyed outsized majorities in the legislative branch from 2012 to 2024.

But that all began to change in 2023 after the Spring Election that sent Janet Protasiewicz to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. On Dec. 22, 2023, the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Wisconsin’s state legislative maps, ruling them unconstitutional. A fraught process followed and the GOP-controlled legislature eventually passed a bill for new maps, and on Feb. 19, 2024, Gov. Tony Evers signed those new maps into law.

So, for the 99-seat Wisconsin State Assembly, where representatives serve two-year terms, those new maps were fully in place for the 2024 election. The result was a 54-to-45 seat Republican majority. That represented a 10-seat gain for Democrats even in a year where Donald Trump won statewide, but Republicans retained majority control of the chamber.

In the Wisconsin State Senate, Democrats found even more success, winning five of five closely-contested races. But because state senators serve four-year terms, only half of those seats in the 33-seat Senate were on the 2024 ballot.

Now, in 2026, the rest of the state Senate is on the ballot, making this the first fully post-Gerrymander election in the Wisconsin State Legislature. Either party could realistically win a majority. As it should be.

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Here at The Recombobulation Area, we have made it a tradition to preview every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature every two years.

Our work on previews like this become a staple of fall election coverage in Wisconsin, and have earned us a “Best Public Service Story or Series” honor from the Milwaukee Press Club.

And now, in 2026, we will be back with another series, previewing every race in this landmark election for the state of Wisconsin.

While the Democratic gubernatorial primary has been the most newsworthy element of Wisconsin’s 2026 election cycle, what’s happening downballot may ultimately have even more of an impact on what happens in state government in 2027 and beyond.

Either David Crowley or Tom Tiffany could preside over trifecta control — holding the Senate, Assembly and governorship — for each of their respective parties, or we could see a new version of divided government in Wisconsin.

A Democratic governor with a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Republican majority in the Assembly? That’s entirely possible (and might even be the most likely outcome). A Republican governor with a Republican majority in the Senate and a Democratic majority in the Assembly? That’s in play. A one-seat majority in each chamber? That could certainly happen.

This is why each and every race matters — and why we work so hard on this biennial preview series. Any individual race could have major implications for a myriad of issues facing the state of Wisconsin.

We’ll be working on this series in the coming weeks. While we certainly have developed our own process for putting this together, if you have press releases, news tips or any other information you’d want to share on candidates or these races, email us at therecombobulationarea@gmail.com.

For now, revisit our previous previews in the links below.

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And subscribe to help support our work — and so you don’t miss this preview when it arrives in your inbox.

2020:

2022:

2024:

For the 2024 election preview, we worked with Civic Media for an especially extensive guide that included a comprehensive voter guide with graphics and links and interactive features for each and every race. Revisit that Voter Guide here.

2026: COMING SOON

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See you back here after Labor Day!

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

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The Recombobulation Area launched in the latter months of 2019, and one of the first elections we covered at the publication was the race for Milwaukee County Executive in the spring of 2020.

That election featured a 33-year-old upstart politician by the name of David Crowley. Crowley was in his second term in the state legislature, representing the 17th Assembly District — which included neighborhoods on the west and northwest side of the city of Milwaukee — and he was quickly getting to work, becoming the chair of the Legislative Black Caucus and of the Milwaukee Democratic Legislative Caucus.

When then-Milwaukee County Executive Chris Abele announced in November of 2019 that he would not be seeking re-election after serving in the role since 2011, Crowley was one of several candidates to announce a bid for the office.

That field was narrowed before the February primary — with echoes of that race in Crowley’s recent victory — and around that time, I interviewed the three top candidates for the office for a piece on the race. Along with Crowley, those candidates were State Sen. Chris Larson and then-County Board chair Theodore Lipscomb.

After that series of interviews, I chose to endorse Crowley in the race, writing, “Milwaukee needs a bridge-builder. The County needs someone with a progressive vision to pair with the type of leadership needed to affect real change.” That sure is what we’ve ended up getting here in Milwaukee County under Crowley’s leadership.

Crowley would go on to win a narrow victory over Larson in that race in the spring of 2020, was re-elected running virtually unopposed in 2024, and now, is the Democratic nominee in the race for governor here in 2026.

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Our time covering news and politics in Milwaukee and Wisconsin has overlapped quite a bit with David Crowley’s rise from state legislator to County Executive to Democratic nominee. From coverage of campaigns and elections to the landmark legislative achievement of Act 12 to several one-on-one interviews over the years — including a live event with Crowley back in 2022 at Anodyne Coffee’s Walker’s Point Roastery, which was filmed by and broadcast at CW18/My24 in Milwaukee — we sure have spent a whole lot of time covering David Crowley here at The Recombobulation Area. We were even the first publication to report on his interest in running for governor, during a Dec. 2023 interview.

So, while I’m away, here is a roundup of much of our Crowley coverage, from 2020 to 2026. We’ve organized this by year and embedded videos where possible.

Let’s recombobulate with our coverage of the person who could be Wisconsin’s next governor:

2020:

2021-2022:

2023:

2024-2025:

2026:

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

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From Marquette University professor Dr. Phil Rocco, an expert in intergovernmental finance and the lead author of The Recombobulation Area’s Milwaukee Press Club GOLD award-winning series, “The legislative battle over Act 12”:

When Wisconsin overhauled its shared revenue system in the summer of 2023, it was billed as a once-in-a-generation deal. In a state riven by partisan conflict, it represented a rare moment of compromise, and a legislative deal that boosted funding for local governments to support critical local services that residents rely on everyday — everything from streets, sewers, parks to police, fire protection, and EMS — by nearly 20%.

Our series covered every twist: the competing plans, the winners and losers, the sausage-making at the Capitol, and what the final bill actually meant. The series also highlighted the important relationship between state and local government in Wisconsin. Like their peers elsewhere, local governments in Wisconsin are not masters of their own fate. The state determines what revenue sources local governments may access, limits their ability to levy taxes, and mandates the provision of key services.

Since 1911, in exchange for preempting counties and municipalities from accessing certain revenue sources, the state has turned back a portion of its revenue to local governments. Yet in the early 2000s, the state legislature effectively stopped updating the program to account for inflation pressures. Thus even as state sales and income tax revenues had tripled since the early 2000s, the state’s funding for County and Municipal Aid had dropped in real terms by over $120 million. The predictable result was a combination of rising property taxes, service cuts, and a surge in municipal debt. Act 12 represented a major victory for local officials who had tried for years to reverse the situation. But there were strings attached – new restrictions on how state funds could be used, new preemptions of local authority, and a new formula that disadvantaged the state’s largest metros.

We’re revisiting the Act 12 series now because the fight over shared revenue has now landed squarely in the race to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers. Milwaukee County Executive, who helped to negotiate the historic deal, is now the Democratic nominee for governor. He faces Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany, who is already hammering Crowley over Milwaukee County’s budget conditions, characterizing the County Executive work on the landmark bill as, “(begging) the legislature to let him nearly double the sales tax.”

In short, the state’s relationship to local governments — and funding for the public services those governments provide — is on the ballot. To understand the stakes, we should start with how we got here.

Revisit this award-winning series, with articles listed chronologically. These articles were published between May and June of 2023:

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Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

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Folks, it has been an especially wild six(ish) weeks since The Recombobulation Area returned to being an independent publication.

We knew we’d be running through the tape to cover the Aug. 11 election and the Democratic gubernatorial primary, but we never could have predicted the utter chaos that unfolded in July and August as we covered this race.

We announced our big news on July 2, celebrated with our Independence Day Sale, and then the news cycle surrounding the primary began to accelerate, with David Crowley dropping out and endorsing Sara Rodriguez on July 8. That was just the start of it, as, soon after, it felt like the Earth was about to spin off its axis with the abject insanity of what happened next. From the moment that changed everything on the evening of Sunday, July 12, through the wee hours of the morning on Aug. 12 when Milwaukee’s central count results were finally reported, this was about as discombobulating a campaign as one could possibly imagine.

We’re on the other side of that now.

After winning by a less than 1% margin, David Crowley is the Democratic nominee. Crowley is a terrific candidate who has an impressive record of accomplishment as Milwaukee County Executive, and I’ve thought of him as a rising star in Democratic politics with a world of potential for quite some time.

Crowley could prove to be a transformational governor at a critical moment — a pragmatic, results-driven bridge-builder who could bring people together and overcome ideological divides to deliver meaningful progress for Wisconsinites in every corner of the state.

Like anyone, he has his flaws — he’d be better off adopting Francesca Hong’s position on data centers, for one (even as his position on these developments is being wildly misrepresented, and he is far from a moderate on the issue) — but Crowley brings so much to the table as a leader and I am genuinely thrilled he is the nominee. He could lead the top of the ticket into a Democratic trifecta in 2027 and help bring the dawn of a bold new era in Wisconsin.

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There are just about two-and-a-half months until the Nov. 3 general election, and — given how these last six weeks have gone — we’re all going to be living several political lifetimes between now and then. There’s going to be much for us to write and podcast and report about in the coming weeks and months.

But before we do, I have some of my own recombobulating to do.

Over the next few weeks, I will be taking a short break from publishing new content, but will be returning after Labor Day to cover the final months of the 2026 midterm elections — from Crowley v. Tiffany at the top of the ticket to the Wisconsin State Legislature, and beyond. Yes, that will include our preview of every last race in the State Senate and State Assembly, as we’ve done every election cycle since 2020.

Between now and Labor Day, however, we have some actual business to attend to here at The Recombobulation Area — being an independent publication once again requires as such — along with some long-planned family travel, and a few other things in the mix, too. So we are taking a beat to reset and recombobulate before what will surely be a busy time from September through November.

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In that time, though, we will be sharing a few things from our archives, and you will continue to be able to find new episodes of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast on our feeds.

But one thing is for sure: The support you have shown this publication since we returned to independent ownership has been phenomenal — and well beyond our wildest expectations. The number of subscribers, both free and paid, have grown by the hundreds, the response we’ve experienced has been overwhelmingly positive, and that support is going to be powering us through November, as we look to cover this landmark election for Wisconsin the way only we can.

So, hopefully, the increased volume of content you’ve seen in your inbox over the last few weeks will sustain you for all your recombobulatory needs over the next few weeks. Soon, we’ll be back with all the commentary and analysis and podcasting and interviews and video and original reporting and more that we plan to bring in the final months of the midterm election campaign and beyond.

See you after Labor Day, folks.

ICYMI: Find highlights of our recent coverage here:

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

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Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Find all of these episodes on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed (Apple Podcasts, Spotify, here on Substack).

There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down.

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This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Tuesday, Aug. 18, at 1:30 p.m.

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

• 00:00 – Welcome Back, Kristen — Post-op recovery banter, road-trip time with kids, and Chris Taylor’s Supreme Court investiture in Madison.

• 04:44 – A Liberal Supreme Court Majority — Justice Karofsky’s plan to bring the court to communities, and the 5-2 liberal majority.

• 06:03 – Primary Post-Mortem: Who Turned Out — Why primary electorates skew fringe, the WisGOP-endorsed candidates fall flat

• 12:26 – Kristen’s Takes on Primary Night — Reliving election night chaos, the Crowley/Godlewski/Hong governor’s race, and the tight three-way 8th CD primary.

• 16:46 – Down-Ballot Races & Media Blind Spots — The 6th CD (Grothman vs. Brad Smith), vote-splitting independents, and frustration that local races get ignored by the press.

• 19:07 – Mapping the Crowley-Hong Results — Regional breakdown of the primary, with Waukesha and the WOW counties standing out as a Crowley stronghold.

• 23:00 – From Waukesha to Wausau — How do downballot races look now that we know who is on the top of the ticket?

• 25:24 – The Michelle Magadance Skinner Scandal — Dual-residency and cross-state voting controversy in the Chippewa Valley Senate race.

• 31:22 – The Fake Poll Mystery — The fake polling “experiment” revealed in the days after the Wisconsin governor’s primary.

• 36:37 – How Reliable Were the Polls? — State Navigate vs. Marquette, late-breaking undecided voters, and shifting midterm turnout dynamics.

• 45:14 – Data Centers as a Campaign Issue — Affordability vs. data centers as top voter concerns, and how the issue is being weaponized heading into the general.

• 52:49 – Comparing the Gubernatorial Interviews — Tiffany dodging the 2020 election question vs. Crowley’s interview style.

• 55:37 – Wrap-Up: Distractions Ahead — A call to stay civically engaged, a Jon Ossoff “lock in” shoutout, and sign-off.

Watch this and every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

You can find every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed, available on Spotify (embedded below), Apple Podcasts (available here), and right here on Substack.

In case you’ve missed a previous episode of the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat, you can find the most recent episodes here.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

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Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

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Hey there, Recombobulation Area subscribers! Our friends at UpNorthNews invited us to join this event coming up on Wednesday, and now I’m inviting you to join us! See the details below, and register to join us. It’s free to attend. Hope to see you there! —Dan

The primaries are over — but the results are only the beginning of the story.

What did voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota just tell us about the road to November? What concerns are driving people at the local level? Which candidates, issues, and turnout signals could shape the midterms in three of the country’s most consequential states?

Join The Gander, UpNorthNews, and COURIER Minnesota on August 19 at 1:00 PM ET/Noon CT for a hyperlocal, virtual post-primary conversation with journalists and political experts who live and work in the Blue Wall states.

This is not the conventional national-panel coverage you’ll see on cable news. It’s an opportunity to hear directly from people on the ground — reporters and analysts who understand the communities, the stakes, and the stories behind the results.

Featuring:

• Professor David Schultz, Distinguished University Professor of Political Science, Environmental Studies, and Legal Studies at Hamline University

• Norris J. Howard III, co-host of the Daily Detroit & Point of Disorder Podcasts

• Julie Campbell-Bode, Founder Distill Social

• Dan Shafer, journalist and founder of The Recombobulation Area

• COURIER’s Wisconsin, and Minnesota newsroom correspondents

Together, we’ll move state by state — from Michigan to Wisconsin to Minnesota — to unpack the surprises, voter mood, turnout signals, and pivotal races emerging from the primaries. If you care about the outcome of the midterms, this is a rare chance to get a clear-eyed, locally grounded read on what voters are thinking — and what comes next.

Please use this link to register.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

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Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

In the immediate aftermath of David Crowley’s razor-thin win in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary, the prognosticator class was quick to boost Democrats’ statewide odds with Crowley instead of democratic socialist Francesca Hong as the nominee.

I wouldn’t be so quick to do that.

For one, I believe every statewide fall election in Wisconsin should be considered a toss-up. Too many are decided by razor-thin margins to justify calling any “Lean D” or “Lean R.” This is Wisconsin. It’s always close.

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But that’s not the only reason. I think Francesca Hong’s odds of winning statewide this fall would have been better than what most people were giving her credit for. I think the map would have been quite a bit different, and she would have struggled in the Milwaukee-area suburbs and been constantly dogged by questions about socialism (and so many other things), but she could have won.

Any major-party candidate in the 50-50 state that is Wisconsin could win a statewide election, but that’s not the only reason, either. There had been a motivation factor powering the Hong campaign that was simply not present in any other. There were real paths to victory for Francesca Hong that were unexplored by casual observers — by those same people who didn’t give her any kind of a chance to win the primary, either. It wouldn’t have been the easiest route, but she could have won — yes, both the primary and the general.

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David Crowley could win statewide, too — and, on balance, he probably has better odds to win statewide than Hong would have — but to characterize his path as significantly easier discounts some of the challenges he could face as well. It’s not just about perfectly calibrating the ideology meter to something more suited to a swing state. It’s just not that simple. You can’t just turn the democratic socialism dial down a bit and expect to cruise to victory.

Until his campaign was revived by a unique opportunity (and Tony Evers), he was not running a particularly strong campaign. He’s well-known and well-liked in southeastern Wisconsin, but he wasn’t well-known enough for people to even really have an opinion on him in much of the state. In the final stretch, he was able to successfully connect with some of those voters by campaigning on a noun, a verb, and Tony Evers, but that alone won’t carry him for the next 80-some days. We’re already seeing some of the challenges he might face on key issues like data centers, a difficult one for someone in his position to navigate.

It’s not unfair for voters to prioritize electability in their decision. For many Wisconsin Democrats I’d been talking to, they liked most — if not all — of the candidates, but just wanted to pick the person who had the best chance of winning. That’s an entirely reasonable position. This isn’t a corporate overlord or the establishment dictating those decisions — it’s people coming to it independently and simply having different views. The dismissiveness of some on the further left end of the ideological spectrum toward the more moderate wing is the same form of shrinking-the-tent nonsense that the center-left has done in their direction, too. There is, or at least should be, plenty of room under the big tent for everyone in the Democratic coalition, from democratic socialists to never-Trump conservatives.

None of this means electability has a simple answer, especially in a state as politically complex as Wisconsin. More traditional Democrats shouldn’t be spiking the football this week because Crowley beat a democratic socialist. The path to win against Tom Tiffany is still going to be an extraordinarily difficult one. And if there’s a lesson from Hong’s late-campaign stumbles, it’s that no one should take anything for granted, and everyone should run through the tape to the very end, working to win over every last voter.

David Crowley passed one test of electability by, well, winning the primary. He faces a much bigger test in a much more difficult environment now, going up against the behemoth of the Republican machine in the general election. We don’t yet know if he will pass it. To presume that he will ignores the reality of how campaigns operate in this day and age.

If the past is prologue, we’re all going to live several political lifetimes before Nov. 3. There’s no earthly way of knowing what comes next. All we can do now is — as Crowley said in his nomination acceptance speech — get to work.

Dan Shafer’s work this week has been referenced nationwide, from places like The Guardian, HuffPost and beyond.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

There are a dizzying number of what-ifs for this primary, when you look back on more than a year of campaigning in the Democratic primary. But the pivot point that I keep coming back to is this one.

That weekend, I had spent a few days up north, staring at a lake instead of a screen after finalizing the deal to bring The Recombobulation Area back to being independent. I returned from a long drive home on Sunday night, and while catching up on the emails I might have missed, one from the Rodriguez campaign hit my inbox.

It’s been a full sprint every single day since then in what’s been the most discombobulating primary imaginable.

I had heard from several people that, before that release was sent, a number of purple-district state legislators were getting ready to endorse Rodriguez that week. Union support was beginning to come her way, she had won the straw poll at the state party convention, and she was starting to see some separation between her and the other candidates in the field. It seemed like things were lining up for the lieutenant governor to become a real contender in the race.

Of course, just at that moment is when things fell apart — in spectacular fashion. Because once the campaign finance crisis hit, and the political planet began to spin off its axis, David Crowley got back into the race, and the rest is (very recent) history.

But the full story of Wisconsin’s discombobulating Democratic primary cannot be told without the key turning point — the campaign finance crisis that derailed the Rodriguez campaign, allowing Crowley a path back into the race.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

As we always do here at The Recombobulation Area, let’s take a look downballot. There were a number of intriguing races we were watching going into Election Night. Here five results that stood out:

1. State Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez lost big: The Democratic incumbent on Milwaukee’s south side saw a primary challenge from Ismael Luna after Ortiz-Velez was charged with disorderly conduct following alleged comments about shooting three of her colleagues last year. Luna won more than 70%, with Ortiz-Velez gaining fewer than 1,000 total votes.

2. Ben Brist wins in key swing district: The 61st District projects to be one of the true toss-up seats in the Assembly. Republican incumbent Bob Donovan will now take on Army veteran Ben Brist, who won a three-candidate primary with just over 44%, ahead of Lawanda Chambers and Brian Bock. Expect this to be a heavily contested race; it could determine control of the Assembly.

3. Zimmerman wins close primary in western suburbs: Need more evidence of Democrats’ growing presence in Waukesha County? Amy Zimmerman of Brookfield defeated David Sanchez of Wauwatosa in this western suburban district. The primary was decided by fewer than 300 votes, with Zimmerman winning 51.2%.

4. Chanz Green survives Duffy-endorsed challenge: Republican incumbent Chanz Green had to fend off a late endorsement of his primary challenger from U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, but won nonetheless. WisPolitics reported on Green’s comments appearing to back a candidate who is not Duffy’s son-in-law in the 7th Congressional District primary, which seems to have led to the late endorsement.

5. Other Milwaukee incumbents survive primary challenges. Democratic Socialist Ryan Clancy, who represents Bay View and the East Side, saw another primary challenge, but won again. Russell Goodwin, serving on the northwest side, also saw a primary challenge — Jordan Rowan, a candidate backed by the Fair Wisconsin PAC, critical of Goodwin’s votes on trans rights. Clancy and Goodwin each received about 54% of the vote to win their respective primaries.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

First, the caveats.

The accurate results were delivered in the end. The accuracy is more important than the timing, and despite how unbelievably irritating this process was — see the later hours of our unhinged election night livestream for our exasperated reactions in real time — getting the end result right is what matters most.

Also: It’s not just Milwaukee. Election night issues occurred in Winnebago County and Green County. They, too, were all fine in the end. But no one is talking about this, because of big ol’ scary Milwaukee.

This is a refrain we’ve sung over and over in recent years, but the Republican-controlled State Senate blocking a bill to allow for early count is completely indefensible, and is directly contributing to the timing of these late-night ballot drops. It’s an easy fix.

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This is the obvious upstream solution to many of the downstream issues Milwaukee experiences. The city’s population is more than double that of any other municipality in the state, and it simply takes longer to count more ballots than fewer — people across the political spectrum have been clamoring for this change for years. It’s only because of folks like Republican state senators Devin LeMahieu and Dan Knodl that we’re still in this position in the first place.

Nevertheless, the downstream issues are also inexcusable and clearly need to be addressed differently, too. The stakes are too high not to raise the level of accountability — especially after city leaders made a big show of demonstrating how much things had improved.

Alexander Shur of Votebeat, who spent the day and night at Central Count, described how it unfolded:

“Milwaukee election officials spent Tuesday trying to prove they had a better way to count absentee ballots — faster, smoother, and with less reason for anyone to doubt the process.

Then, after 15 hours of nearly flawless work, a few minutes of human error blew up the plan.

At around 11:10 p.m. on Tuesday night, city officials left their central count facility without exporting results from five of its nine tabulators, forcing them to race back under police escort and delaying Milwaukee’s results by about 90 minutes. It was the third time in recent years that a significant tabulator-related mistake had disrupted the city’s heavily scrutinized absentee-ballot operation.”

Republican State Rep. Scott Krug, who has previously advocated for the early count bill, is now calling for a report on Milwaukee’s election-night error. He is not unjustified in doing so. In his reporting at CBS 58, A.J. Bayatpour also noted that this is the third significant elections mishap in three years.

Whether it’s a problem of leadership at the Milwaukee Elections Commission or something else, there needs to be a greater level of accountability for these errors. It is unfair that Milwaukee has to walk on glass but never fall. But that is the reality. If this were a one-time issue, that’s one thing. But it keeps happening, and changes need to be made.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

The Republican Party of Wisconsin endorsed Will Martin for lieutenant governor and Nate Pollnow for secretary of state.

Both lost. Oops.

Martin, also backed by many Republican legislators, the Milwaukee Police Association, and Turning Point Action, had been appearing regularly with Tiffany. But he won just three counties, losing to David Varnam 55% to 44%.

Varnam, the former mayor of Lancaster (population: 4,000), was endorsed by Wisconsin Family Action and other anti-abortion groups, which could prove to be a difficult issue for the GOP ticket, given how recent statewide elections have gone for anti-abortion candidates in Wisconsin.

For as much as the party appeared to have consolidated around Tiffany as the candidate — it was really just the Trump endorsement, let’s be honest — there are still clearly levels of disarray internally for Wisconsin Republicans, given results like these.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

While the Democratic gubernatorial primary wasn’t called until the wee hours, another competitive race Democratic got a quick call: the one in the 3rd Congressional District.

For all the attention Emily Berge’s spirited run got, the race wasn’t close — Cooke won by more than 20 points.

Cooke’s conversation with our friend Kate Duffy just before Election Day was a terrific reminder of who this candidate is, and why she’s uniquely positioned to defeat Derrick Van Orden in November.

The rematch between Cooke and Van Orden is going to be one of the most-watched races in the House this fall — Nate Silver’s new House forecasting model gives her a miniscule edge — so put yet another race in the toss-up column in Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, it should be noted, Derrick Van Orden is spending his time performatively election-denying around the results of the Democratic primary — is it real truther belief, or is he just trolling to rile up folks on the left? — and posting some genuinely bizarre AI videos of Cooke.

It should be an extraordinarily weird few months in western Wisconsin, but Cooke’s big tent that spans from Bernie Sanders to Tammy Baldwin to the Blue Dogs could be the right mix to flip this district back into Democratic control.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

State Sen. Kelda Roys was one of four Democrats who saw the race through to the end. Like in 2018, she finished third — this time by a smaller margin, just over 7.5%.

But Roys overperformed that statewide number in a critical location — her home turf of Dane County. As has often become the case in the statewide count, the total number of votes from Dane County outnumbered the total number of votes in the much more populous Milwaukee County (just barely, but still). And while Roys only got about 5% of the vote in Milwaukee County, she gained 11% in Dane.

State Sen. Kelda Roys was one of four Democrats who saw the race through to the end. Like in 2018, she finished third — this time by a smaller margin, just over 7.5%.

But Roys overperformed that statewide number in a critical location — her home turf of Dane County. As has often become the case in the statewide count, the total number of votes from Dane County outnumbered the total number of votes in the much more populous Milwaukee County (just barely, but still). And while Roys only got about 5% of the vote in Milwaukee County, she gained 11% in Dane.

Hong’s eventual margin over Crowley in Dane County was about 7%, or about 11,000 votes. Kelda Roys received more than 16,000 of the roughly 59,000 votes she gained statewide in Dane County alone.

So, maybe some underestimated the presence Roys would have in her home county. Maybe Mandela Barnes dropping out meant some of the non-socialist progressive voters shifted their choice to Roys in the final days. Maybe there are other factors involved. But instead of taking votes from the top non-Hong option in Crowley, Roys may have cut into Hong’s vote share just enough to tip the balance of an election decided by less than 4,000 votes.

Some close to the Crowley camp thought Joel Brennan’s continued presence in the race could tip a close result in Hong’s favor, believing Brennan voters would otherwise go to Crowley (which tracks). They were much less concerned with Roys remaining in the race.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

At David Crowley’s re-launch event at 3rd Street Market Hall, I noted a significant presence from an increasingly crucial component of the Democratic coalition in Wisconsin — Waukesha County Democrats. I talked with county party chair Matt Mareno and new Waukesha Mayor Alicia Halvensleben about why they were supporting Crowley, after having supported Sara Rodriguez — who grew up in Brookfield, and flipped an Assembly district that included part of Waukesha County — earlier in the race.

That support mattered in the final count. As J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted, Crowley’s margin in the state’s third-most-populous county was significant — he got 44% there to Hong’s 34%, his biggest lead of any county he carried.

Crowley also won Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties by similar double-digit margins, and while Hong won Eau Claire County by an impressive 13-point margin, that was the only one of Wisconsin’s 15 most populous counties where the state representative from Madison won by double digits.

Suburban counties were inevitably going to be a challenge for the democratic socialist, and it was Crowley who proved to be the candidate who could break through there, following Rodriguez’s dramatic exit from the race.

This could be a point in Crowley’s favor in the general election, too. Waukesha County has been trending blue in recent elections, and Tom Tiffany being from the northern part of the state — and not from the WOW counties, like so many Republicans in statewide races before him — could make this county more competitive than ever for Democrats in 2026.

ICYMI: Our recent coverage of the changing politics in Waukesha County:

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

In the Spring Election in 2020, David Crowley won the race for Milwaukee County Executive by a less than 1% margin. He was the less-known underdog in the race, and eventually defeated the more progressive candidate.

In that victory, Crowley assembled a coalition of Black voters from the city’s north and northwest side, scattered support from west-side neighborhoods and suburbs near the Assembly district he represented from 2017 to 2020, and carried many of the surrounding suburbs.

As Marquette’s John Johnson pointed out, that coalition looks remarkably similar to the Milwaukee County map in his 2026 primary win. “Crowley reliably draws support from a seemingly contradictory set of places,” Johnson wrote. “In Milwaukee County, he wins the poorest wards and the richest, the most Black and the most white, the most Democratic and the most Republican.”

The path to victory rhymes too. When then-County Executive Chris Abele announced in late 2019 he wouldn’t seek another term, a large field formed to replace him: State Sen. Chris Larson, a well-known progressive who’d lost to Abele in 2016; County Board Chair Theodore Lipscomb; Glendale Mayor Bryan Kennedy; former state senator Jim Sullivan, who’d served in Abele’s administration; longshot nonprofit executive Purnima Nath (since a perennial candidate in various races); and Crowley, then in his second Assembly term.

Abele initially backed Sullivan, but that race was upended when Sullivan and Kennedy were both removed from the ballot for violating election law while collecting nomination signatures — an issue initially raised by Lipscomb. With the field narrowed, Crowley gained Abele’s support, finished second in the primary, and beat the more progressive Larson in the general runoff.

Now, there is not a perfect one-to-one analogue between Sullivan and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, or between Hong and Larson, or between Abele and Evers. But, as the saying goes, history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Here, there are some remarkably similar stanzas, and certainly some echoes of Crowley’s 2020 victory in Milwaukee County in his 2026 victory in the Democratic primary. He won by 0.53% in 2020 and by 0.48% in 2026. Even in a state where elections are often decided by decimal-point margins, that is remarkable in its similarity.

Blue Book

David Crowley Wins an Upset with a Familiar Coalition Behind Him

Talk about a come-from-behind victory. David Crowley’s roughly 3,200-vote, 0.4-point victory in the Wisconsin Democratic primary came after every public poll—and Crowley’s own internal survey—showed him trailing Francesca Hong by double digits in the weeks preceding the election. The late-July Marquette poll, for instance, showed Hong drawing the suppor…

Read more

23 days ago · 13 likes · John Johnson

From the archives: See our coverage of that 2020 Milwaukee County Executive race — and eventual endorsement of David Crowley — here:

Dan Shafer’s work this week has been referenced nationwide, from places like The Guardian, HuffPost and beyond.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

She may have come up short, but I just absolutely loved Francesca Hong’s campaign. It tapped into so much of what politics needs right now. She was authentic and earnest, focused on building community — in “churches and dive bars and bike races and dance parties and in their homes.” She was unafraid to do things differently. She was, and is, for something.

She listened to the voters, adopting the position on data centers that helped propel her campaign. She activated thousands of volunteers, going everywhere and making the “meeting people where they are” rhetoric into a true reality instead of a tired cliché. She put policy first. She was not insulting toward her competitors; she did not make this a me-against-the-establishment battle. As I’ve said throughout, this campaign is truly distinct.

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She ran as an unapologetic democratic socialist in a purple state and received more than 311,000 votes. She received about 86,000 more votes in her bid for governor than Tony Evers received when he won in 2018. She carried counties in critical swing regions, like the Fox Valley and western Wisconsin. She built a movement — a real movement.

Her campaign stumbled toward the end¹, but she should be proud of what she built and how strongly it resonated across Wisconsin. Sometimes the best campaigns are the ones that come up just short but point the way forward. Every future statewide candidate in Wisconsin will learn something from the wildcard who out-hustled the field.

She came within 3,500 votes of doing something no one thought possible. Francesca Hong is a legend — and she will survive.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This is the free version of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

This column will feature a standalone post for each individual “takeaway,” conveniently rounded up here in one place, with shareable links for each. The full version for subscribers was published Friday, Aug. 14.

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The Aug. 11 partisan primary has come to an end. David Crowley pulled off a remarkable comeback victory to win the Democratic nomination.

But there’s much more going on, to learn from, to analyze, to break down, as we reflect on the results of this discombobulating Democratic primary.

We’ve livestreamed, we’ve podcasted, we’ve covered the news, we’ve taken photos, video, and posted all over.

Now, it’s time — as per tradition here at the Recombobulation Area — to really dive in.

These are our 12 takeaways from the primary. Let’s recombobulate.

1. Like the phoenix, Crowley’s campaign rises from the ashes

Thirty-five days after David Crowley ended his campaign, he formally accepted the Democratic nomination in another place known for coming back in the face of adversity -- the Sherman Phoenix.

2. Do not underestimate Tony Evers

The governor went all-in for David Crowley — and it worked.

3. Francesca Hong is a legend

She may have come up just short, but every last statewide campaign going forward is going to be learning something from the wildcard who out-hustled the field.

4. The echoes of David Crowley’s 2020 county executive election win in his 2026 primary victory

As the saying goes, history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. There are some similar stanzas in Crowley’s 2020 victory in Milwaukee County as in his win to become the Democratic nominee.

5. Waukesha County remains crucial

The suburban county was a critical piece of David Crowley’s victory in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

6. Did Kelda Roys win Dane County votes that could have gone to Francesca Hong?

The State Senator from Madison outperformed her statewide vote share of 7.5% in one key part of the state -- Dane County, where she gained 11%.

7. Let Her Cooke: The now-Democratic nominee in the 3rd Congressional District wins big in primary

It’s going to be “Van Orden vs. Cooke: Part II” in western Wisconsin, in a district that could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

8. WISGOP-endorsed candidates fall flat in August primary

The Republican Party of Wisconsin endorsed candidates in statewide races for Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State. Both lost.

9. We desperately need to fix Milwaukee’s central count process

The votes were counted accurately in the end. Legislative Republicans keep blocking an obvious, important fix. But there still needs to be more accountability in Milwaukee.

10. 5 takeaways from downballot results in Wisconsin’s August primary

There were many competitive primaries in state legislative elections, particularly in the Milwaukee area, where incumbent Sylvia Ortiz-Velez lost big and Democratic challenger Ben Brist won in the primary to take on Bob Donovan.

11. The moment in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary campaign that changed everything

The full story of Wisconsin’s discombobulating Democratic primary cannot be told without the key turning point — the campaign finance crisis that derailed Sara Rodriguez’s campaign.

12. David Crowley, Francesca Hong, and the electability conundrum

Yet another conversation about the top two candidates in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary being unfortunately oversimplified.

ICYMI: Revisit more of our coverage of Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary here:

Dan Shafer’s work this week has been referenced nationwide, from places like The Guardian, HuffPost and beyond.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

You’ve gotta hand it to Two-Term Tony.

The mild-mannered former science teacher’s effort to pass the torch looked clumsy at times, but — as he so often has — he showed a knack for the bigger picture and reminded everyone why he shouldn’t be underestimated.

Some were baffled when he chose to endorse Crowley over others still in the race, those who included former members of his administration. Many questioned what he was thinking, even wading into this primary in the first place. But he was right not to choose Barnes or Brennan (or Rodriguez or Hughes before them), and instead go with Crowley, helping resurrect his campaign with an endorsement timed to the Milwaukee County executive’s re-launch event in Milwaukee.

Evers didn’t even entertain what-ifs about other candidates winning, saying, “That’s not going to happen. This guy’s gonna win,” pointing to Crowley.

Evers went all-in for Crowley down the stretch, ignoring the polls and repeatedly insisting Crowley would win — right through to a rally on the eve of the primary at The Cooperage in Milwaukee, where he said, “I know in my heart of hearts that David Crowley is the best chance we have of beating Tom Tiffany.”

Could he have timed this endorsement better? No question. Waiting until after he dropped out to back the candidate who he clearly supported all along — I’d heard for years that the governor had thought incredibly highly of the Milwaukee County Executive — was about 3,500 votes away from backfiring in dramatic fashion. But he stuck to his guns and helped see Crowley through to victory.

Holy mackerel, folks. What a move.

Dan Shafer’s work this week has been referenced nationwide, from places like The Guardian, HuffPost and beyond.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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This column is one part of Dan Shafer’s deep-dive mega-breakdown of the election results from Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 partisan primary. Read the full column with all 12 takeaways here.

Each of these 12 takeaways are available as a standalone free version. Find each of those here.

David Crowley’s campaign was over. The July 8 press release didn’t say he “suspended” his campaign — it said “David Crowley Ends Campaign For Governor.”

Thirty-five days later, Crowley formally accepted the Democratic nomination for governor, capping a remarkable comeback for the 40-year-old from Milwaukee.

The location — the Sherman Phoenix on Milwaukee’s north side — felt like a not-so-subtle metaphor: the Sherman Phoenix is a Milwaukee story of resilience, of rising again in the face of adversity.

Crowley’s campaign rose from the ashes, too. His July 18 relaunch event at 3rd Street Market Hall kick-started a 25-day mad dash to Election Day — a Hail Mary, a wild, audacious gambit.

But it worked.

Crowley proved to be the man for the moment. Had he campaigned this way for the first nine months of the race instead of just the final three-and-a-half-weeks, he might not have needed the comeback at all. But maybe it had to happen exactly this way.

That was certainly true down the stretch. He needed Tony Evers’ endorsement. He needed the field to shrink. He needed to raise a whole lot of money. He needed to catch a favorable news cycle. He needed to see early-vote numbers come in disproportionately low (since, you know, he’d been out of the race for a while). He needed Joel Brennan’s number to land on the low end, needed to stay close in Dane County, and needed nearly pretty much all the undecided voters to break his way.

That all happened.

It’s a remarkable turnaround for someone who, at the very beginning, I wrote was the candidate with the highest upside in the race. I still thought in June, when I wrote that his campaign was a “huge disappointment” and needed “a wake-up call.” I suppose there’s no bigger wake-up call than coming back after literally ending your campaign.

But wake up he did. His campaign relaunch event went exceptionally well; the energy in the room was palpable. And even though his name was not in this particular poll, the breadcrumbs leading to this path to victory were there in the July 22 Marquette poll — I wrote “there’s a non-zero chance this could actually work.” The odds were against him, but he pulled it off, doing just enough to win by an extraordinarily close, less than 1% margin. It was impossible, then it was improbable, then it happened.

Beyond the rising-phoenix symbolism, the words Crowley spoke at that 9 a.m. event — surrounded by exhausted staff, supporters, and political media running on just a few hours of sleep — are worth listening to, particularly his closing remarks:

“Because what we do, it isn’t just about winning elections. It’s about improving the lives of our neighbors. Because we know the most patriotic thing that we can do as Wisconsinites, as Americans, is to see those who disagree with us as human beings — deserving the same rights and the same opportunities as everyone else.

Instead of fearing those we cannot understand, and letting that fear divide us, patriotism is going to work to see the humanity in all of our neighbors. It is our work that puts our future generations first and prioritizes progress for all of us.

So today, we begin a new chapter. Today, we get back to work. We’ll knock on more doors. We’ll have more conversations. We’ll welcome Democrats, Republicans, independents, and every Wisconsinite who believes in democracy, who believes in opportunity, in moving our entire state forward.

Together, we will build the broad coalition that this moment absolutely demands. Together, we will reject division. Together, we will reject extremism. Together, we will make history and write the next chapter of Wisconsin’s story — one built on opportunity, compassion, hard work, and hope. And together, we will defeat Tom Tiffany.”

This is a message that can win in November.

Crowley pulled off the impossible in the primary and now has about 80 days to win the general. It won’t be easy — this is Wisconsin, after all — but neither was winning a primary five weeks after declaring the campaign over.

Crowley could go from failed, sidelined candidate to the state’s next governor.

More from our coverage of David Crowley’s comeback:

Dan Shafer’s work this week has been referenced nationwide, from places like The Guardian, HuffPost and beyond.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.