Subscribe now

Early in my time at The Recombobulation Area, I would make a few endorsements. Some are ones I’m quite proud of — like endorsing David Crowley in the race for Milwaukee County Executive in 2020. But for the most part, it’s something I’ve stayed away from in recent years.

But this year, I’m making a few exceptions for people who I’ve gotten to know a bit over the years, and who I think very highly of — in their work and as people.

The Recombobulation Area is endorsing three candidates running for State Senate — Mark Becker in District 1, Robyn Vining in District 5, and Emily Tseffos in District 19.

Instead of a typical endorsement, I invited each of these candidates to join The Recombobulation Area podcast for a conversation about each of their campaigns, their paths to politics, the stakes for Wisconsin in the upcoming election, and much more.

You can find each of these endorsement podcasts embedded below. Along with being available as an audio or video podcast on Substack, each is also available on our official channels on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Share

We are very excited to endorse each of these outstanding candidates. Robyn has been a terrific state representative for eight years in the Assembly — on issues from healthcare to public education to small business and beyond — and could be the one to flip District 5 blue. Mark is man of principle who left the GOP when Trump arrived, and is running to be a true independent voice in the Senate. Emily is tireless and creative and passionate and shows up for her community, and would help transform the State Senate.

And to be clear, this doesn’t mean there aren’t many other candidates running for office this fall who are deserving of an endorsement. But these are all people I know personally, and who have been contributors at The Recombobulation Area, and I wanted to use my little platform to support their campaigns.

So, support Robyn Vining. Support Mark Becker. Support Emily Tseffos.

I hope you enjoy my conversations with each of these three terrific candidates.

Find this episode on YouTube here:

Find this episode as an audio podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Find this episode on YouTube here:

Find this episode as an audio podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Find this episode on YouTube here:

Find this episode as an audio podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

The Nov. 3 election is coming up soon, and while the race for governor has drawn most of the headlines here in Wisconsin — with good reason, in many cases — the race for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature is also an incredibly big deal, and will determine so much about the future of our great state. This is the first election in the state legislature where the gerrymandered maps are completely gone, with both the Senate and Assembly having all of their elections on new, fairer maps.

As we always do at The Recombobulation Area, we are previewing every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature — the 17 races happening in the State Senate, and the 99 happening in the State Assembly, along with the balance of power overall.

I’m also adding something a little different this time. I’m making a few endorsements, and we are featuring each of these Recombobulation Area-endorsed candidates with a special podcast conversation.

In recent years, I have not typically endorsed specific candidates in specific races, but I’m making a few exceptions for people who I’ve gotten to know a bit over the years, and who I think very highly of — in their work and as people.

One of those people is Mark Becker. Becker is the former chair of The Republican Party of Brown County (who has since left the party in the Trump years), a small business owner, a former radio show host, and he’s also been a contributor here at The Recombobulation Area. He is running as an independent in Senate District 1.

Becker is great candidate and a terrific person, and one of my favorite people to talk politics with. He is a man of principle, and stood firm in his beliefs as the party he used to be a part of took a turn toward Trump. That’s the type of quality we could really use in a state senator right about now.

In our conversation, we talked about Mark’s path to politics, leaving the Republican Party over Trump and other issues like marriage equality and women’s rights, confronting Ron Johnson over election denialism, running for Senate as an independent, the independent streak of politics in northeastern Wisconsin, how a new majority might govern in the Wisconsin State Legislature, and more.

Find out more about Mark’s campaign here.

You can watch this conversation on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

• 01:40 Meet Mark Becker, running for State Senate in District 1

• 02:24 Mark’s background and path into politics

• 03:07 Trying to join the National Guard and a blunt recruiter conversation

• 03:48 Growing up Catholic, conservative, and service-minded

• 04:29 Rising to chairman of the Brown County Republican Party

• 04:29 Speaking out on marriage equality and women’s rights within the GOP

• 05:55 Leaving the party over Trump

• 07:18 Confronting Ron Johnson over 2020 election denialism

• 08:39 Writing an op-ed in The Bulwark about the call

• 09:19 Ron Johnson’s furious text on January 7th

• 10:39 Running for Senate as an independent

• 11:19 The open seat: a Republican primary, no Democrat, and an independent

• 11:59 Doors, party walls, and reactions to “independent”

• 12:43 No independent state senator in 135 years

• 13:26 Northeastern Wisconsin’s independent streak

• 14:49 A tale of two doors: voters fed up on both sides

• 16:13 17 years without a cost-of-living upgrade

• 16:57 A “fork in the road” election and 16 years without accountability

• 18:21 What an independent win would mean for District 1’s leverage

• 19:44 A diverse district: Door County, Knowles-Nelson, and Wrightstown affordability

• 21:07 Extremism, gerrymandering, and how the maps have changed since 2010s/2022

• 23:10 Governing like a “deep red state” despite being purple

• 23:53 Resisting the temptation to govern like the other side did

• 25:19 Messaging that blurs party lines in Northeast Wisconsin

• 25:59 Democrats’ need to invest more in the region

• 26:40 “How goes Northeast Wisconsin, so goes Wisconsin”

• 27:20 National chaos bleeding into local politics

• 29:22 A Brown County Board fight over an LGBT history museum exhibit

• 30:05 The exhausting, “deep cuts” political mood of the moment

• 31:29 Final thoughts and sign-off

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Get more from Dan Shafer in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

Subscribe now

The Nov. 3 election is coming up soon, and while the race for governor has drawn most of the campaign headlines here in Wisconsin — with good reason, in many cases — the race for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature is also an incredibly big deal, and will determine so much about the future of our great state. This is the first election in the state legislature where the gerrymandered maps are completely gone, with both the Senate and Assembly having all of their elections on new, fairer maps.

As we always do at The Recombobulation Area, we are previewing every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature — the 17 races happening in the State Senate, and the 99 happening in the State Assembly, along with the balance of power overall.

If you missed that when we published last week, you can find it all here.

Share The Recombobulation Area

I’m also adding something a little different this time. I’m making a few endorsements, and we are featuring each of these Recombobulation Area-endorsed candidates with a special podcast conversation.

In recent years, I have not typically endorsed specific candidates in specific races, but I’m making a few exceptions for people who I’ve gotten to know a bit over the years, and who I think very highly of — in their work and as people.

One of those people is Emily Tseffos. She is the chair of the Democratic Party of Outagamie County, she is an educator, a community organizer, and has been a contributor here at The Recombobulation Area — and is a terrific writer.

See some of her work here:

Share

She also does a terrific job at reaching people on social media, in genuine and authentic ways. Democrats could really learn from her!

@emilyinwisconsinWe’re hustling out here. 😅 We’re not doing any of this for ego or huge ambitions of higher office (if we were, I certainly wouldn’t be running in this type of district… again 😂). I truly believe what I kept saying to folks in Waupaca this morning: we need to get back to talking with one another. There’s something about a Fourth of July parade that reminds me what we’re actually fighting for. Kids scrambling for candy. Veterans getting standing ovations. Local nonprofits, marching bands, scout troops, little league teams, farmers, Lions Clubs, firefighters — all showing up because they care about where they live. Nobody asks who you voted for before they hand your kid a piece of candy or shares a laugh about the humidity or compliments a really delicious-looking Bloody Mary. 😋 Maybe we’ve forgotten that this is America, too. Patriotism isn’t yelling the loudest or flying the most American flags or posting the angriest take online. It’s believing our neighbors are worth knowing. It’s showing up for your community. It’s caring enough to try to make things a little better than you found them. That’s the kind of politics — and the kind of country — I want to be part of. Happy Fourth, everyone. 🇺🇸❤️

Tiktok failed to load.

Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser

Emily is now running for State Senate in District 19 located in the Fox Valley and parts of central Wisconsin. As a tireless advocate for the people of her community and someone with a unique understanding of both the little things and the bigger picture, Emily Tseffos would be an outstanding state senator and has our endorsement.

Find out more about her campaign here.

You can watch this conversation on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

• 01:38 Meet Emily Tseffos, running for State Senate in District 19

• 02:59 From Outagamie County chair to Assembly candidate to Senate run

• 03:41 Why door-knocking is the best part of campaigning

• 04:21 A big, sprawling district in the 19th

• 05:04 Getting through misinformation at the door

• 05:47 Planting seeds in a red district for the long term

• 07:08 District geography: Wautoma, Waupaca, Red Granite, New London

• 07:51 Unfulfilled campaign promises and how Republicans view Milwaukee/Dane Co.

• 08:31 Naming the “correct villain”: health care premiums and property taxes

• 09:15 Frustration with cultural-issue questions vs. kitchen-table costs

• 09:55 Finding common ground even with Republican voters

• 10:35 Sitting on doors for 20 minutes to really talk through issues

• 12:18 Surprised “bathroom safety” is still a doorstep topic

• 15:15 Campaign strategy: micro-targeted digital ads as “digital yard signs”

• 16:38 Welcoming the politically homeless without shame

• 17:23 Online hostility vs. real in-person conversations

• 19:26 Fox Valley “vibe check”: 40-some days out

• 20:46 Persuasion doors and drawing everything back to prices

• 22:09 Tariffs hitting agriculture, manufacturing, and small business

• 23:31 Political shifts across Fox Valley counties

• 24:11 More opportunities for Democrats to prioritize the Fox Valley

• 26:02 The big picture: stakes of 2027 and a possible trifecta

• 26:42 Priorities: public schools, utility costs, relief for working people

• 28:03 The Joint Finance Committee hurdle

• 28:44 Dan’s read on Democrats’ chances in the Senate and Assembly

• 29:27 Final thoughts and sign-off

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Get more from Dan Shafer in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

The Nov. 3 election is coming up soon, and while the race for governor has drawn most of the campaign headlines here in Wisconsin — with good reason, in many cases — the race for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature is also an incredibly big deal, and will determine so much about the future of our great state. This is the first election in the state legislature where the gerrymandered maps are completely gone, with both the Senate and Assembly having all of their elections on new, fairer maps.

As we always do at The Recombobulation Area, we are previewing every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature — the 17 races happening in the State Senate, and the 99 happening in the State Assembly, along with the balance of power overall.

If you missed that when we published last week, you can find it all here.

I’m also adding something a little different this time. I’m making a few endorsements, and we are featuring each of these Recombobulation Area-endorsed candidates with a special podcast conversation.

In recent years, I have not typically endorsed specific candidates in specific races, but I’m making a few exceptions for people who I’ve gotten to know a bit over the years, and who I think very highly of — in their work and as people.

One of those people is State Rep. Robyn Vining. Vining was the first Democrat to flip a seat under gerrymandered maps when she won an extremely close race in 2018, and she’s now won re-election three more times since then, and is now running to be the next state senator to represent District 5, located in Milwaukee’s western suburbs.

Vining is a terrific candidate and wonderful person, and has been a fighter on issues like health care, public education and small business in her time in the Assembly. With a win on Nov. 3, she could help flip the Senate for Democrats for the first time in 16 years. Robyn Vining would be a outstanding state senator and has our endorsement.

In our conversation, we talked about Robyn’s path to politics, reflected on her eight years in the Assembly, discussed some of the more outlandish campaign tactics she’s seeing in this year’s race (including a mailer that put her personal cell phone number on it), and looked ahead to the election in November and the potential for a Democratic trifecta in 2027.

Find out more about Robyn’s campaign for State Senate here.

Share

You can watch this conversation on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

• 01:35 Meet Robyn Vining, the first Democrat to flip a seat under the gerrymander

• 02:40 Robyn’s background and path into politics

• 03:43 A mom of two, protesting in Act 10the Scott Walker era

• 04:28 The “Love Wins” sign and rejecting divide-and-conquer politics

• 05:10 Running in 2018 and cracking the gerrymander

• 06:32 From small business photographer to the state Capitol

• 08:45 Community support and the power of good candidates

• 10:12 Eight years in the Assembly under divided government

• 11:35 Unexpected attention, obstruction, and “fraternizing with the enemy”

• 12:59 The gerrymander is gone: fighting off a supermajority and winning fairer maps

• 13:47 Wisconsin as the 49th state to pass postpartum Medicaid expansion, and sharing credit with advocates

• 15:09 Preventable maternal deaths and the pressure that moved Republicans

• 15:50 Bipartisan wins: perimenopause and menopause education bill

• 16:50 Mental health care, UW building funding, and child care

• 18:12 Shifting the conversation on child care and school funding

• 18:58 Referendums, property taxes, and strangled local governments

• 20:18 How the Joint Finance Committee guts the budget

• 22:20 What could change with a chance at unified government

• 23:01 A tough campaign: MAGA tactics and a mailer with her personal cell number

• 24:22 Legislation to protect future candidates from harassment

• 25:07 Why door-knocking matters: asking voters what they’re feeling

• 26:30 Building a “We, the People” budget from what voters say

• 27:12 Voters’ top concerns: child care, food, gas, and housing costs

• 28:36 Young people’s worries: housing, AI, data centers, and surveillance

• 30:04 Senate District 5: the communities and how the area has changed

• 31:25 Understanding the suburbs in the Trump era

• 32:49 Final thoughts: get involved just weeks to go

• 33:32 Sharing credit with volunteers and door-knockers

• 34:13 “Marching orders for January” and sign-off

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

This episode features Angela Lang, co-executive director of Black Leaders Organizing for Communities, filling in for Dan Shafer.

Subscribe now

There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down.

This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Friday, Sept. 25, at 1 p.m.

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

Wisconsin Politics Group Chat — with guest Angela Lang (BLOC)

• 00:00:00 – Intro, tech check, and welcoming guest Angela Lang, executive director of BLOC (Black Leaders Organizing for Change)

• 00:00:22 – Dan’s absence explained/roasted; the group’s Lambeau Field tailgate mix-up

• 00:02:15 – Big story: Tom Tiffany banning a Journal Sentinel reporter (Mary Spicuzza) from his campaign

• 00:05:33 – Comparing Tiffany’s press ban to Trump barring outlets like Politico/CNN/MSNBC

• 00:08:47 – League of Women Voters’ struggle to stay “neutral” as candidates refuse debates

• 00:09:22 – Skye Perryman’s book Ordinary People, Extraordinary Times and last night’s Lambeau tailgate as “accountability” conversation

• 00:12:08 – Northern Door Activism’s Constitution-amendments zine and reading the First Amendment aloud

• 00:14:36 – Reflections on political bubbles and reaching “normal,” non-hyper-engaged voters

• 00:16:53 – The “beer garden” controversy: Tiffany claiming David Crowley called Milwaukee beer gardens racist

• 00:20:59 – Pivot to cost-of-living issues, Tiffany’s voting record on the housing bill and Iran war votes

• 00:23:36 – On-the-ground read from Milwaukee: affordability concerns and BLOC’s canvassing/door-knocking prep

• 00:27:00 – Post-Labor Day momentum, attack ads on Crowley, and cautious optimism about turnout

• 00:27:58 – Francesca Hong’s post-primary statewide tour supporting Crowley and the trifecta effort

• 00:31:22 – Kate’s story on livestreaming Tiffany’s Moms for Liberty event and his DEI/funding threats

• 00:32:55 – Tiffany’s property-tax-freeze promise vs. its impact on public school funding

• 00:34:21 – Voting logistics: mail-in ballots, October 20th early voting, myvote.wi.gov registration

• 00:36:13 – Tiffany welcoming federal agents “on the ground” for Election Day; historical voter-intimidation tactics (Scott Walker billboards)

• 00:39:49 – Call to action: poll watching/working, individual voting plans, restored voting rights

• 00:40:23 – National Early Vote Day (Oct 24) and a BLOC team member’s “MyVote” music video

• 00:42:10 – Upcoming No Kings marches (Oct 17, incl. Green Bay) and early voting tie-in

• 00:43:11 – Billionaire spending in Wisconsin races and one-vote-per-person as a check on wealth

• 00:45:10 – Ballot tracking via myvote.wi.gov (”like tracking an Amazon package”)

• 00:46:57 – Mark Becker: former GOP county chair now running as independent in Senate District 1

• 00:47:57 – Whether Republicans will distance from Trump if Democrats win big in midterms

• 00:49:44 – Closing message: “see your vote through” — vote, then organize/advocate afterward

• 00:51:04 – Wrap-up, plans for a group Lambeau Field game on Oct 29, thanking Angela

Watch this and every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

You can find every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed, available on Spotify (embedded below), Apple Podcasts (available here), and right here on Substack.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This is part of The Recombobulation Area’s 2026 Election Mega-Preview of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature.

Read Dan Shafer’s column introducing the series, “Wisconsin’s Fork in the Road.”

This part of the preview includes a district-by-district breakdown of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Assembly. That includes all 99 races.

For our preview of the Senate, go here.

Go to MyVote Wisconsin, find your district, see what’s on your ballot, and make a plan to vote.

Taking a look at the full map in the Wisconsin State Assembly is revealing. It shows how the political geography of the state works.

If you were to organize the state’s Assembly districts by least competitive to most competitive, it would go like this:

First, you’d have the ultra-blue seats in Madison and Milwaukee, places where Democrats at the top of the ticket can win by huge margins — 50 points or more. The most left-leaning district in the state, based on 2024 election numbers, is the 76th, located on the isthmus in Madison — currently represented by Francesca Hong — which went about 90%-10% for Tammy Baldwin in the most recent race for U.S. Senate. There are a few more districts in Madison, and a few others in Milwaukee — largely in majority-Black neighborhoods — where Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin each won by 60+ point margins.

Then, you have a few seats where Democrats win by margins of 35-to-50 percentage points. Those include some majority-Hispanic districts on Milwaukee’s south side, along with several Dane County seats.

Share

At that point, getting slightly more competitive along this spectrum, is where the Republican-held seats emerge. The group of “safe Republican” seats is the largest category — an ocean of red in suburban, exurban, northwoods and rural areas across the state. These are places where Republicans routinely win by margins of 20-to-40 percentage points. A few go beyond that — the most pro-Trump district in the state is District 59, the furthest Milwaukee exurbs into rural eastern Wisconsin, where the president won by about a 48-point margin — but there are dozens of reliably red districts across the state.

There are 31 districts that Trump won by between 20% and 40%. That’s close to a third of the state. This is the base of support upon which Republican majorities have been built. There are scant few blue counterparts to this, just three seats where Democrats won by between 20-to-40-point margins.

There are also about a dozen Republican-held districts where top-of-the-ticket candidates win by margins in the teens. These include some suburban districts that have been trending toward Democrats, a few western Wisconsin districts, and several others scattered around the state. But Republican-leaning districts are more likely to be ones won by numbers more like 65%-35% than by 55%-45%.

Then, moving a bit more competitive — but still typically favoring one party; in this case, Democrats — there are about 20 or so districts that Democrats typically win by somewhere between 5-to-15-point margins. These often include mid-size cities, and are hugely consequential, and often overlooked, areas of the state.

Mid-size cities in Wisconsin — think those with a population between about 50,000 (Sheboygan) to 105,000 (Green Bay) — are often represented by Democrats. Democratic votes don’t just come from Milwaukee and Madison; the majority of statewide votes for Democrats actually come from outside those two cities. These mid-size blue cities, and the roughly one-third of voters in “Safe R” districts who vote for Democrats, are among the biggest reasons why Wisconsin remains a purple state.

Then, there are the real battlegrounds. Brown County and Neenah-Menasha in the northeast. La Crosse and surrounding areas. The southern suburbs in Milwaukee County. Wausau. The Eau Claire area and Chippewa Valley, now extended west toward the Twin Cities. District 51 in southwestern Wisconsin, specifically. These are the parts of the state that will ultimately determine the Assembly majority — and perhaps whether or not Democrats can win a trifecta.

Republicans have controlled the Assembly for 30 of the last 32 years. From 2012 to 2024, they did so with 60 or more seats, under egregiously gerrymandered maps. New maps helped that majority shrink to 54 to 45 in the 2024 election — a 10-seat pickup from the near-supermajority that Republicans drew themselves in 2022 redistricting. But unlike their counterparts in the Senate, Assembly Democrats did not win all of their targeted races. The Democratic candidate lost by 220 votes in the 88th; 364 in the 53rd. Republican State Rep. Todd Novak defied the numbers once again in the 51st. Both swing seats in Milwaukee County went for the Republican incumbent.

As much as incumbency is a major factor at the top of the ticket in Wisconsin elections, it’s an even bigger deal in downballot races. Going through this exercise, district-by-district, it’s astonishing the degree to which Assembly Republicans out-perform the top of the ticket, defeating their Democratic opponents.

And unlike in the State Senate, many Republican incumbents are sticking around to run again in 2026. Yes, Robin Vos is headed for the exit, as are swing seat representatives Jessie Rodriguez and Dean Kaufert, but other strong incumbents like Bob Donovan, Todd Novak, Shannon Zimmerman, and Patrick Snyder who are running again offer a big boost to Republicans’ overall balance-of-power calculus.

So, while Democrats have their best chance to flip the Assembly in more than 15 years, their road to victory is still a challenging one. By our count, Republicans are favored in 49 districts, meaning that Democrats would need to go three-for-three in the “Toss Up” seats in order to win a one-seat majority.

Each of those seats, too, have Republican incumbents — as do the next three “Lean R” seats where Democrats are actively competing. So, in order for Democrats to climb this mountain and topple the longstanding Republican Assembly majority, they’d need to defeat at least three incumbents across six districts. This is not out of the question, but considering the overall electoral performance of incumbents in the Assembly, it’s a tall task.

Our forecast here at The Recombobulation Area suggests the most likely outcome for the legislature is that Democrats flip the Senate, but Republicans hold the Assembly.

Share The Recombobulation Area

Democrats are likely to make gains in the Assembly, and further shrink the Republican majority. There are five seats in the Assembly that were won by both Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin in the 2024 election — and there’s also one Trump-Baldwin seat, in the 85th in Wausau. Two of those now have open seats, and Democrats are favored to flip both of them. Winning those and holding all other seats would bring the total number of Democrats to 47 — still three away from a majority.

Twelve years of gerrymandering and 30 years of near-continuous control is a lot to dig out of. It’s clearly going to take more than one election cycle, and it might take more than two. And while Democrats might have an on-balance advantage this year, Robin Vos is still reportedly running things at the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC), which has out-fundraised its Democratic counterpart, according to the latest publicly available data.

Share

The tantalizing trifecta for Democrats in Wisconsin is within reach. A Senate flip seems very possible. Any statewide election in Wisconsin is close to 50-50, but David Crowley certainly has a chance to win the race for governor. But because of how well Republican incumbents have performed over the years in the Assembly, the GOP is a slight favorite to win a slim majority. But in all likelihood, any majority either way is going to come down to just a few seats.

A few years ago, such a statement was impossible. Battlegrounds and genuine competition were gerrymandered out of existence. Now, there’s a realistic possibility for Democrats to win a majority. That’s a goal worth fighting for. And if there’s a year for it to happen, it could very well be this one. And if that were to happen, Robin Vos’ final act in state government would be to hand the Speaker’s gavel to a Democrat. Now that would be something.

But any majority is built one seat at a time. Every last one of these 99 districts matter in their own unique way. And if Democrats are able to unseat a few incumbents and win an Assembly majority, it would transform the state of Wisconsin in ways we haven’t even begun to realize.

So, let’s get to it. Here is The Recombobulation Area’s district-by-district preview of all 99 upcoming elections in the Wisconsin State Assembly.

As per tradition, we’ve broken this down by category, but given the familiar nomenclature of the prognosticator class, here is the breakdown in the more familiar format along the political spectrum:

• Safe D(26)-Likely D(12)-Lean D(7)-Toss Up(3)-Lean R(3)-Likely R(2)-Safe R(44)

Recombobulation Area Overall Rating: LEAN R

CATEGORIES:

• The toss-up races (3)

• The open seats favored to flip for Democrats (2)

• Republican incumbents in close races (3)

• Democratic incumbents in close races (7)

• Probably safe Republicans in suburban seats (2)

• Probably safe Democrats in and around mid-size cities (12)

• The safe Republicans (44)

• The safe Democrats (26)

DISTRICTS

Click to jump to a district: District 1 | District 2 | District 3 | District 4 | District 5 | District 6 | District 7 | District 8 | District 9 | District 10 | District 11 | District 12 | District 13 | District 14 | District 15 | District 16 | District 17 | District 18 | District 19 | District 20 | District 21 | District 22 | District 23 | District 24 | District 25 | District 26 | District 27 | District 28 | District 29 | District 30 | District 31 | District 32 | District 33 | District 34 | District 35 | District 36 | District 37 | District 38 | District 39 | District 40 | District 41 | District 42 | District 43 | District 44 | District 45 | District 46 | District 47 | District 48 | District 49 | District 50 | District 51 | District 52 | District 53 | District 54 | District 55 | District 56 | District 57 | District 58 | District 59 | District 60 | District 61 | District 62 | District 63 | District 64 | District 65 | District 66 | District 67 | District 68 | District 69 | District 70 | District 71 | District 72 | District 73 | District 74 | District 75 | District 76 | District 77 | District 78 | District 79 | District 80 | District 81 | District 82 | District 83 | District 84 | District 85 | District 86 | District 87 | District 88 | District 89 | District 90 | District 91 | District 92 | District 93 | District 94 | District 95 | District 96 | District 97 | District 98 | District 99

The toss-up races (3)

Assembly District 51

Candidates:

• Ben Gruber (Democratic)

• Todd Novak (Republican)

• Nathan Tataje (American Solidarity Party)

Incumbent: Todd Novak (2015-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+3.5, Baldwin+7.8

2024 results: Novak 51.7% - Grabe 48.3%

• Novak+3.4

District map:

Todd Novak was first elected to the State Assembly in 2014 by a margin of just 65 votes. In just about every election cycle since, he has been in an extremely close race, but managed to squeak by with a narrow victory. In five of six races, he’s won by a margin of less than 5%. Three of those wins have come by less than 1,000 total votes. New district lines in 2024 made him more vulnerable to defeat than ever, but he once again defied the odds, and in a district that Tammy Baldwin carried by a nearly 8-point margin, Novak won by a comfortable (for him) 3.4%.

The national environment this year and the larger partisan lean of his district suggests that Novak is facing his most difficult test yet in his bid for re-election. But he’s more battle-tested than most, having been in several tough races before. It’s to the point where I’m almost expecting him to again out-run the top of the ticket and win yet another narrow victory in a toss-up contest.

Novak is the Chair of the Assembly Committee on Local Government, and was the mayor of Dodgeville from 2012 to 2024. He is also the first openly gay Republican elected to the state legislature.

The Democratic challenger in this race is a formidable one. Ben Gruber is a former DNR conservation warden, firefighter and paramedic. He’s talked about health care in his campaign, telling UpNorthNews that “we’re approaching a real crisis point” when it comes to rural emergency services in the district.

Gruber was also part of an important ruling earlier this year involving the Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The Wisconsin Employment Relations Commission ruled that “two of the three members of the warden’s union were likely retaliated against by the DNR due to their advocacy on behalf of employees,” according to a report from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Gruber, the former president of Conservation Wardens Local 1215, was one of those members. He also won a legal case after being fired in 2020, and his is one of several stories wardens discussed with the JS for its in-depth reporting on a “toxic culture” in the conservation warden program. Perhaps Gruber has what it takes to win some tough battles, too.

There’s going to be a third-party candidate in this race, too, with the American Solidarity Party, and it’s hard to see how that might impact a race like this one. This party describes itself as a “Christian democratic party” that is anti-abortion and more economically liberal.

This might be the single most important race on the map in the Assembly. It has an outsized level of importance on determining so many things about Wisconsin’s future. And it’s hard to see how Democrats can win control of the Assembly without winning this race in District 51 and finally unseating Todd Novak. The opportunity is there. Can Ben Gruber be the one to make it happen?

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

Southwestern Wisconsin native Todd Allbaugh discusses this race in District 51 on a recent episode of The Recombobulation Area podcast. Listen here.

Share The Recombobulation Area

Assembly District 61

Candidates:

• Ben Brist (Democratic)

• Bob Donovan (Republican)

Incumbent: Bob Donovan (2023-present)

2024 District data: Harris+2.2, Baldwin+3.7

2024 results: Donovan 51.5% - Bird 48.3%

• Donovan+3.2

District map:

Bob Donovan has been a well-known public figure in the Milwaukee metro area for more than 25 years. He served on the Common Council from 2000 to 2020, and was one of its most conservative members throughout that time. He ran for mayor in the City of Milwaukee twice, losing in landslide races to Tom Barrett in 2016 and to Cavalier Johnson in 2022.

But, later in 2022, Donovan found his second act in public service winning an extremely close race against Democrat LuAnn Bird by just 526 votes. He defeated Bird in a rematch by a slightly larger margin in 2024, a year where two Milwaukee County swing districts were on the ballot in the Assembly, and the Republican incumbent won in both races. In the Assembly, Donovan is the Chair of the Committee on Urban Revitalization and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Local Government.

Donovan also may or may not live in the district he’s elected to represent, and used campaign funds to the tune of $850 per month to pay for “staff lodging” at his old, out-of-district home. Donovan’s wife is also still registered to vote in their home in the old district, and Donovan has used that prior address in financial reports submitted to the Wisconsin Ethics Commission, Heartland Signal has found.

But on name recognition alone, Donovan is in a better position than just about any Assembly candidate, having been a staple of local news and conservative talk radio for much of the 21st Century. He also has the advantage of incumbency, and has out-run the top of the ticket in prior races (though not as much as some others).

This time, he’ll face first-time candidate Ben Brist, who won a three-candidate primary in August with about 44% of the vote. Brist is a veteran of the U.S. Army, serving active duty for seven years as a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division and also as a Company Commander, and was deployed twice, serving in Iraq and Kuwait. He also finished graduate studies at West Point and graduated from U.S. Army Ranger School.

The 70-year-old Donovan has proven to be a fairly strong candidate in the legislature, and Democrats will need to defeat him in order to win a majority.

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

Assembly District 88

Candidates:

• Brandy Tollefson (Democratic)

• Benjamin Franklin (Republican)

Incumbent: Benjamin Franklin (2025-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+0.3, Baldwin+1.2

2024 results: Franklin 50.3% - Welch 49.6%

• Franklin+0.7

District map:

This district is as swingy as it gets in Wisconsin — won by both Tony Evers and Ron Johnson in 2022, by less than 1% by Donald Trump in 2020, and by less than 1% by Kamala Harris in 2024. This district includes part of the city of Green Bay, and several surrounding cities to the east, including De Pere.

Republican incumbent Ben Franklin won an open seat race in the 88th in 2024, and while Franklin now has the advantage of incumbency, this is his first term serving in the Assembly. Franklin, an Air Force veteran, has been the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Veterans and Military Affairs, but overall, has not been a particularly high-profile legislator.

The Democrat challenging for the seat is Brandy Tollefson. Tollefson serves on the De Pere School District Board of Education, a seat she won in 2024. She currently works as the board’s Treasurer. She has made public education a priority in her campaign, telling UpNorthNews that Republicans in the legislature have “put schools in the position that they’re in that continue to force us to go to referendum.”

Of the three toss-up races in the Assembly, this is the most likely race for the Democratic candidate to win. In 2024, Franklin won by the closest margin of any state representative in Wisconsin — just 220 votes. The changing political environment, as pertains to an especially swingy area like Brown County, could be enough to move this district into the blue column.

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

The open seats favored to flip for Democrats (2)

Assembly District 21

Candidates:

• Dan Bukiewicz (Democratic)

• Dylan Pfaffenbach (Republican)

Incumbent: Jessie Rodriguez, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Harris+4.0, Baldwin+7.0

2024 results: Rodriguez 51.3% - Marstellar 48.5%

• Rodriguez+2.8

District map:

After Jessie Rodriguez announced in May that she would not be seeking re-election in the Assembly, I wrote a piece on why that particular retirement is an especially big deal. Rodriguez has consistently out-run the top of the ticket, and has been more of a moderate voice in a Republican Party that’s gone in a much less moderate direction in recent years.

This is a Milwaukee County district that Kamala Harris won by 4% and Tammy Baldwin won by 7%, and no longer having a strong incumbent running to keep the seat red means an open contest and a major opportunity for Democrats to flip a district from red to blue.

This district includes all of the city of Oak Creek, which is significant, because the mayor of Oak Creek, Dan Bukiewicz, who has held the position since 2018, is the Democratic candidate in this Assembly race. Bukiewicz has also been the elected President of the Milwaukee Building and Construction Trades Council since 2014. He won his August primary over David Liners with about 59% of the vote. A candidate with that kind of name recognition and credentials in an Assembly district is hard to come by — bolstering the Democrats’ chances for flipping this district.

The Republican running is first-time candidate Dylan Pfaffenbach, who has worked in Republican politics and is a college student at Carroll University, where he is the founder of a Turning Point USA chapter.

This is the most likely flip district for Democrats in the Assembly this cycle.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D (FLIP)

Assembly District 53

Candidates:

• Becky Nichols (Democratic)

• David Daniels (Republican)

• Rachael Dowling (Independent)

Incumbent: Dean Kaufert, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Harris+4.4, Baldwin+6.1

2024 results: Kaufert 50.5% - Shukoski 49.4%

• Kaufert+1.2

District map:

Republican incumbent Dean Kaufert had previously served in the State Assembly and was the mayor of Neenah for several years before running in the newly redrawn 53rd District in 2024. A well-known local official like Kaufert being the candidate shifted this district from “Lean D” to “Toss Up.” But days after an April 2026 Heartland Signal report revealed a sexual harassment investigation involving underage girls that occurred in 2019 when Kaufert was mayor, he announced he would not be running for re-election.

Now, the Republican running in this district is David Daniels, a first-time candidate who previously served in the U.S. Air Force and has been a business owner. There’s also a third-party candidate running in this race, Rachael Dowling, who serves on the Winnebago County Board, and was previously backed by the Winnebago County GOP.

Initially, the Democratic candidate in this race was Lauri Asbury, but she suspended her campaign and endorsed now-candidate Becky Nichols. Nichols served on the Menasha City Council from 2013 to 2025, and ran for mayor in the city twice, losing both times. She also served on the Winnebago County Board from 2022 to 2024, and is currently a teacher in the Menasha Joint School District, where she has also served on the Menasha Education Fund Board.

Nichols and Dowling, but not Daniels, participated in a recent community forum for the race, hosted by the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin.

Given Nichols’ background as a candidate, and the possibility that a right-leaning independent candidate could split votes, Nichols is in position to win this race and flip this seat — one that the Republican won by just a few hundred votes in 2024.

Also, of note: the recent tornado that hit Menasha has impacted each of the candidates in this race, and prompted each of them to suspend campaign activities in the aftermath. In a recent Wisconsin Public Radio story, Nichols said part of her roof had been torn off in the July storm, and it was raining inside her house, and she’s since been displaced from her home in the hard-hit Doty Island neighborhood. Dowling also experienced some property damage from the storm, and reached out to Nichols afterwards. Per the WPR story, the candidates have tried to avoid door-knocking in areas affected by the storm.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D (FLIP)

Republican incumbents in close races (3)

Assembly District 30

Candidates:

• Kevin Knoke (Democratic)

• Shannon Zimmerman (Republican)

Incumbent: Shannon Zimmerman, (2017-present)

2024 District Data: Trump+4.4, Hovde+4.9

2024 results: Zimmerman 54.2% - Page 45.7%

• Zimmerman+8.5

District map:

Shannon Zimmerman has served in the legislature for nearly a decade, and has been on the powerful budget-writing Joint Committee on Finance since 2019. Zimmerman is also a business owner and executive with several different companies, and owned a winery with his family called Belle Vinez Winery, which they sold in 2022.

In the most recent session, Zimmerman missed quite a few votes. One report showed he was gone for more than 25% of all Assembly floor sessions in the 2025-26 session, and missed more than 225 votes. One thing he was involved in, though, was a bill on data centers that moved quickly through the Assembly in January, but didn’t make it through the Senate, and faced opposition from Gov. Evers and legislative Democrats.

Zimmerman’s Democratic opponent in this race is Kevin Knoke, a first-time candidate and longtime educator in the region, who taught in the Hudson School District for more than 25 years. He’s also a veteran who served in the U.S. Army Reserve for eight years. One trend among many of the Democratic Assembly candidates this year is that many are current or former educators. Oftentimes, these individuals can be well-known figures in their communities. This was the case last cycle with Joe Sheehan of Sheboygan, who flipped a district from red to blue.

District 30 the closest district in Wisconsin to the Twin Cities in Minnesota, so there is significant influence from the media market there. Kare 11 in the Twin Cities recently noted a “spending blitz” for Wisconsin candidates in the area, including one from Zimmerman that features a “negative portrayal of Minnesota.” With Hudson being just a 20-minute drive from St. Paul, the Minnesota of it all looks to be a major factor in the race — from GOP criticism of Wisconsin’s neighbor to the west to larger realignment trends of suburban districts moving toward Democrats.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN R

Assembly District 85

Candidates:

• John Kroll (Democratic)

• Patrick Snyder (Republican)

Incumbent: Patrick Snyder (2017-present)

2024 District data: Trump+0.6, Baldwin+1.0

2024 results: Snyder 53.2% - Xiong 46.7%

• Snyder+6.5

District map:

District 85 has the distinction of being the only Trump-Baldwin Assembly district in the state. The president won the district by less than a percentage point, and Baldwin carried the district by 1%. If this were an open seat, it would be a toss-up, but with a Republican incumbent who has overperformed the top of the ticket, this is in our “Lean R” category.

But just barely. Of the three “Lean R” races, this is the most likely to flip for Democrats. John Kroll is the candidate seeking to flip the seat. He currently serves on the Marathon County Board, elected in 2024, and volunteers as an advisor at Western Technical College.

Patrick Snyder has served in this district for nearly a decade, and is the Chair of the Committee on Children and Families and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Workforce Development, Labor and Integrated Employment. He is a former congressional staffer for then-congressman Sean Duffy and was an on-air radio host in Wausau for 12 years before running for Assembly.

Snyder was among the Republicans advocating for postpartum Medicaid extension in the most recent session, but it wasn’t until Democrats maneuvered to force a vote on the final day of the session that the bill did eventually pass — with contentious comments being made in the following hours.

Snyder was also in the news earlier this year as one of several politicians whose profiles on the Ashley Madison website were made public. Snyder also had an account on AdultFriendFinder, the report said.

The largest city in this district is Wausau, with a population of just over 40,000. This is a city that has a fairly evenly-divided electorate, largely favoring Democrats by single-digit margins in most statewide races, but close to an even 50-50 in Assembly races with Snyder on the ticket. He’s been a formidable incumbent, and he could win again. But if Kroll wins this race, it likely means Democrats will have won a majority in the Assembly.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN R

Assembly District 92

Candidates:

• Jeremiah Fredrickson (Democratic)

• Clint Moses (Republican)

Incumbent: Clint Moses (2021-present)

2024 District data: Trump+7.0, Hovde+3.9

2024 results: Moses 53.3% - Plouff 46.7%

• Moses+6.6

District map:

Earlier this year, I helped moderate an event in Eau Claire with former WisDems chair Ben Wikler. Wikler, in his new book, is especially adept at explaining how different races at different levels of government can have an outsized and profound impact that reverberates through our politics – and how people can make a difference in their local communities in ways that can impact an entire nation. In our conversation — available here — I highlighted the 92nd District as one of those types of races, and Wikler agreed. If Democrats win this race, they’re likely to win control of the Assembly — perhaps even by a few seats.

The incumbent Republican seeking re-election is Clint Moses, who is the Chair of the Committee on Health, Aging and Long-Term Care and the Vice-Chair of the committee on Agriculture.

Moses is a chiropractor, and owns Red Cedar Chiropractic in Menomonie. He has advocated for a number of proposals that “take inspiration from U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda,” according to a Wisconsin Examiner report, like barring FoodShare participants from purchasing soda and candy with their benefits.

While this is a Republican-leaning district, Tony Evers carried this seat by 0.1% in 2022. Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson is the challenger seeking to flip this district blue, after winning the August primary with more than 79% of the vote. Fredrickson was a teacher and is a youth sports coach in Elk Mound. He’s also the owner of Jeremiah’s Bullfrog Fish Farm, where you can go fishing for rainbow trout and then have it cooked on-site in their outdoor kitchen. This business launched in 2017 is open May through September in Menomonie, serves several restaurants and retailers in the area, and has an online store.

A contest between an educator and agri-tourism business owner and an RFK-influenced chiropractor is going to be one of the most important races in Wisconsin. Because of course it is.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN R

Democratic incumbents in close races (7)

Assembly District 26

Candidates:

• Joe Sheehan (Democratic)

• John Belanger (Republican)

Incumbent: Joe Sheehan (2025-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+2.7, Baldwin+4.7

2024 results: Sheehan 51.4% - Binsfeld 48.4%

• Sheehan+2.9

District map:

Joe Sheehan is in his first term in the state legislature, winning a key race in 2024. Previous maps had split the city of Sheboygan into two districts, but combined into one, it became a pickup opportunity for Democrats. Sheehan is the former superintendent of the Sheboygan Area School District and is now on the Committee on Education.

He’ll face John Belanger, who served as an alderman in Sheboygan from 2012 to 2018, and from 2024-2026. He also ran for mayor in 2025, losing to Ryan Sorenson (a Democrat who was an early endorser of David Crowley’s run for governor), 58% to 42%, and lost his re-election bid for Common Council earlier this year. Belanger won a three-candidate primary in August with 64% of the vote to be the Republican nominee in this race.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 43

Candidates:

• Brienne Brown (Democratic)

• Paul McGraw (Republican)

Incumbent: Brienne Brown (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+5.2, Baldwin+7.5

2024 results: Brown 51.2% - Johnson 48.6%

• Brown+2.6

District map:

Brienne Brown broke through as the winner of a race that was closer than many expected in the 2024 election. She serves on committees on Agriculture, and on Veterans and Military Affairs. She previously served on the Whitewater Common Council from 2018 to 2025 and on the Whitewater Library board for more than a decade. In the 2024 Assembly race, she faced incumbent Republican Scott Johnson, after lines were redrawn to put all of the UW-Whitewater campus into one district.

Now, it’s Brown who will have the advantage of incumbency as she seeks re-election. She’ll face Paul McGraw, a veterinarian from Walworth County. McGraw ran for Richmond Town Board and lost in the 2025 election.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 54

Candidates:

• Lori Palmeri (Democratic)

• Tim Paterson (Republican)

Incumbent: Lori Palmeri (2023-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+6.9, Baldwin+9.7

2024 results: Palmeri 52.6% - Paterson 47.3%

• Palmeri+5.3

District map:

Democratic incumbent Lori Palmeri will face Republican challenger Tim Paterson in what will be a rematch of the 2024 race. Palmeri is in her third term, and her win in 2022 helped block a Republican supermajority. Before being elected to the Assembly, she was the mayor of the City of Oshkosh from 2019 to 2023.

Paterson a military veteran who served in the Wisconsin National Guard from 1989 to 2017. He currently serves on the Winnebago County Board. This is a race that could move toward “Likely D” if current trends hold.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 89

Candidates:

• Ryan Spaude (Democratic)

• Bobby Lindsey (Republican)

Incumbent: Ryan Spaude (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+2.0, Baldwin+4.1

2024 results: Spaude 51.3% - Buckley 48.5%

• Spaude+2.8

District map:

Ryan Spaude won a key race in 2024, defeating a well-known Green Bay Republican to flip the district from red to blue. Spaude, a former Assistant District Attorney in Brown County, is on the Assembly committees on Criminal Justice and Public Safety and on Judiciary.

He faces Republican challenger Bobby Lindsey, a retired police officer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran. Lindsey ran for Green Bay City Council in 2024, losing by less than 50 votes.

Spaude being a first-term representative — like Franklin in the 88th on the other side of Green Bay — makes him among the more vulnerable incumbents in the Assembly. He won by just 826 votes in 2024, after all. But Spaude slightly out-ran Kamala Harris in this district, which you don’t often see from Assembly Democrats, and now he has at least one term of incumbency working for him. But this is still very much a race to watch, and an upset is not out of the question.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 91

Candidates:

• Jodi Emerson (Democratic)

• Bruce Stabenow (Republican)

Incumbent: Jodi Emerson (2019-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+4.5, Baldwin+7.4

2024 results: Emerson 51.5% - Skinner 48.3%

• Emerson+3.2

District map:

Jodi Emerson has represented this Eau Claire area district since winning in 2018, and though margins were closer under new maps in 2024, she was able to win and hold the seat. Emerson is currently in party leadership as the Minority Caucus Sergeant At Arms, and has worked in a variety of roles to combat human trafficking over the years. She serves on three Assembly committees — Colleges and Universities; Criminal Justice and Public Safety; Housing and Real Estate.

She’ll face Republican Bruce Stabenow, who previously served two terms on the Augusta Common Council. This race has the potential to move toward the “Likely D” category.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 94

Candidates:

• Steve Doyle (Democratic)

• Keith Purnell (Republican)

Incumbent: Steve Doyle (2011-present)

2024 District data: Trump+2.1, Hovde+0.1

2024 results: Doyle 50.3% - Huebsch 49.7%

• Doyle+0.6

District map:

Steve Doyle is “Mr. Bipartisan.” He even owns the domain name for “mrbipartisan.com,” which reroutes to his Assembly campaign website. “Nobody beats me in terms of voting in a bipartisan way,” he told WPR in 2024. A 2020 Legislative Reference Bureau report said Doyle was the most bipartisan member of the Assembly.

With that bipartisan record, Doyle is the only Democrat to have won any district carried by Donald Trump in the 2024 election. He’s been serving in the Assembly since 2011, and has served on the La Crosse County Board since 1986. He recently told The New York Times that he was bracing for attack ads tying him to Francesca Hong, saying “that would have been the thing I heard about the whole campaign.” Instead, he is back to a “familiar routine” of touting his bipartisan record.

In the last two elections, he faced the same candidate, Ryan Huebsch, winning narrow victories both times. This time, he’ll face Keith Purnell, a U.S. Army veteran with more than 30 years of service, including several leadership roles, and as Senior Military Instructor in the ROTC program at UW-La Crosse.

With any other candidate, this race would be listed as a “toss up.” With Doyle on the ballot, Mr. Bipartisan is in position to win again.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Assembly District 95

Candidates:

• Jill Billings (Democratic)

• Cedric Schnitzler (Republican)

• Paul Weber (Independent)

Incumbent: Jill Billings (2011-present)

2024 District data: Harris+2.2, Baldwin+5.5

2024 results: Billings 52.0% - Schnitzler 48.0% (REMATCH)

• Billings+4.0

District map:

This is another rematch of a close race won by a Democratic incumbent. Jill Billings has served in the Assembly since 2011, and was on the La Crosse County Board from 2004 to 2012. Earlier this year, she was honored with the Outstanding Legislator Award from the Wisconsin Counties Association.

She’ll again face Cedric Schnitzler, who she defeated by a 4% margin in 2024. Schnitzler is a former dairy farmer who currently serves as the Chair of the Monroe County Board, where he has served “on and off” for the past 30 years.

There is also a third-party candidate in this race, Paul Weber, who is facing sexual assault charges involving multiple victims.

This is another race trending toward the “Likely D” category.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

Probably safe Republicans in suburban seats (2)

Assembly District 22

Candidates:

• Dana Glasstein (Democratic)

• Paul Melotik (Republican)

Incumbent: Paul Melotik (2023-present)

2024 District Data: Trump+9.9, Hovde+11.9

2024 results: Melotik 58.0% - Glasstein 41.9%

• Melotik+16.1

District map:

Many suburban seats have been trending toward Democrats in recent years, and this largely Ozaukee County District saw Trump’s margin of victory drop just below double-digits in the most recent election. Interestingly, Eric Hovde did better than Trump in this district, which includes blue-trending cities of Cedarburg and Port Washington. Cedarburg went from a city carried by Mitt Romney by about a 25-point margin in 2012 to one won by Kamala Harris by 2% in 2024.

This is still a long-shot race for Democrats — and is a rematch of a race Melotik won by a substantial margin in 2024 — but is one to watch as the suburbs continue to shift. David Crowley had a strong showing in Ozaukee County in the primary, and in this year’s state Supreme Court race, Chris Taylor won the county. The Democratic challenger is Dana Glasstein, an educator in the state’s technical college system and an active volunteer in the Mequon-Thiensville School District. This will be an interesting test of how Democrats might fare in downballot races in suburban districts.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY R

Assembly District 82

Candidates:

• Rico Camacho (Democratic)

• Bryson Reyes (Republican)

Incumbent: Scott Allen, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Trump+8.1, Hovde+8.4

2024 results: Allen 57.2% - Reilly 42.7%

• Allen+14.5

This is a race to watch. This district includes much of the city of Waukesha, and is an open seat, after Republican incumbent Scott Allen announced he would be “taking a sabbatical from elected office.”

Translation: He’s not running for re-election, and he lost a race for mayor against Democrat Alicia Halvensleben. That victory from Halvensleben is worth noting, as it serves as a clear sign of the shifting political ideology of the former Republican stronghold of Waukesha County.

The Democratic candidate running here is Rico Camacho, an educator and soccer coach who is serving as an Alderperson on the Waukesha Common Council. He faces Republican Bryson Reyes, a first-time candidate who served in the U.S. Army and now works in manufacturing. There’s been a dispute in the race involving a political mailer that Camacho said “darkened his skin.”

While this is still a Republican-leaning district, Camacho’s candidacy is an interesting one, as someone more well-known in the area, and who serves in elected office in the city. If there’s any reach seat upset potential if the election breaks extraordinarily well for Democrats, it would be in this district.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY R

Probably safe Democrats in and around mid-size cities (12)

Assembly District 14

Candidates:

• Angelito Tenorio (Democratic)

• AmyRose Murphy (Republican)

Incumbent: Angelito Tenorio (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+10.1, Baldwin+12.5

2024 results: Tenorio 52.7% - Engstrand 43.4% - Shevey (IND) 3.8%

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 40

Candidates:

• Karen DeSanto (Democratic)

• Julie Helmer (Republican)

Incumbent: Karen DeSanto (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+4.8, Baldwin+8.1

2024 results: Desanto 54.1% - Helmer 45.9%

• DeSanto+8.2

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 42

Candidates:

• Maureen McCarville (Democratic)

• Keith Miller (Republican)

Incumbent: Maureen McCarville (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+14.9, Baldwin+16.4

2024 results: McCarville 55.0% - Witherspoon 44.9%

• McCarville+10.1

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 45

Candidates:

• Clinton Anderson (Democratic)

• Jocelyn Jordan (Republican)

Incumbent: Clinton Anderson (2023-present)

2024 District data: Harris+7.3, Baldwin+11.3

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 46

Candidates:

• Joan Fitzgerald (Democratic)

• John Donohue (Republican)

Incumbent: Joan Fitzgerald

2024 District data: Harris+8.1, Baldwin+9.3

2024 results: Fitzgerald 52.4% - Quimby 47.5%

• Fitzgerald+4.9

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 50

Candidates:

• Bill Oemichen (Democratic)

• Jon Aleckson (Republican)

Incumbent: Jenna Jacobson, running for Senate

2024 District data: Harris+14.3, Baldwin+16.3

2024 results: Jacobson 56.3% - Johnson 43.7%

• Jacobson+12.6

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 65

Candidates:

• Ben DeSmidt (Democratic)

• Valerie Kretchmer (Republican)

Incumbent: Ben DeSmidt (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+7.0, Baldwin+9.5

2024 results: DeSmidt 53.3% - Gonzales 46.5%

• DeSmidt+6.7

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 66

Candidates:

• Greta Neubauer (Democratic)

• Gina Cefalu Paulick (Republican)

Incumbent: Greta Neubauer (2018-present), Minority Leader (2021-present)

2024 District data: Harris+9.4, Baldwin+11.0

2024 results: Neubauer 53.9% - DeGroot 45.9%

• Neubauer+8.0%

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 71

Candidates:

• Vinnie Miresse (Democratic)

• Jeff Disher (Republican)

Incumbent: Vinnie Miresse (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+6.7, Baldwin+9.6

2024 results: Miresse 53.1% - Pahmeier 46.8%

• Miresse+6.3

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 90

Candidates:

• Amaad Rivera-Wagner (Democratic)

• Jessica Henderson (Republican)

Incumbent: Amaad Rivera-Wagner (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+10.0, Baldwin+12.2

2024 results: Rivera-Wagner 52.5% - Henderson 47.4%

• Rivera-Wagner+5.2

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 93

Candidates:

• Christian Phelps (Democratic)

• Michael Ayala (Republican)

Incumbent: Christian Phelps (2025-present)

2024 District data: Harris+8.3, Baldwin+9.9

2024 results: Phelps 52.7% - Rolbiecki 47.2%

• Phelps+5.5

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Assembly District 96

Candidates:

• Tara Johnson (Democratic)

• Jim Green (Republican)

Incumbent: Tara Johnson (2025-present

2024 District data: Harris+8.3, Baldwin+11.6

2024 results: Johnson 51.0% - Oldenburg 49.0%

• Johnson+2.0

District map:

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY D

Refer a friend

The safe Republicans (44)

• 5 uncontested races

(Note: All Republicans are incumbents, unless an open seat is noted)

Assembly District 1

Joel Kitchens (R) vs. Renee Paplham (D)

2024 District data: Trump+14.8, Hovde+12.6

2024 result: Kitchens 61.9% - Paplham 38.0%

• Kitchens+23.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 2

Shae Sortwell (R) vs. Alicia Saunders (D)

Republican: Shae Sortwell

2024 District data: Trump+23.5, Hovde+22.0

2024 result: Sortwell 63.2% - Saunders 36.7%

• Sortwell+26.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 3

Ron Tusler (R) vs. Michael Goodwin (D)

2024 district data: Trump+23, Hovde+21.9

2024 result: Tusler 64.5% - Schmitz 35.5%

• Tusler+26.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 4

David Steffen (R) vs. Alexia Unertl (D)

2024 District data: Trump+29.0, Hovde+27.1

2024 results: Steffen 66.2% - Benson 33.8%

• Steffen+32.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 5

Joy Goeben (R) vs. Justin Schumacher (D) vs. David Schupbach (Wisconsin Green)

2024 District data: Trump+21.2, Hovde+19.3

2024 results: Goeben 62.8% - Sampson 37.2%

• Goeben+25.6

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 6

Elijah Behnke (R) vs. Shirley Hinze (D)

2024 District data: Trump+32.2, Hovde+28.7

2024 results: Behnke 67.4% - Hinze 32.5%

• Behnke+34.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 15

Adam Neylon (R) vs. Stephen Tryon (D)

2024 District data: Trump+12.4, Hovde+14.0

2024 results: Neylon 59.1% - Harrison 40.8%

• Neylon+18.3

Neylon is running for both State Assembly and Waukesha County Executive, not unlike State Sen. Chris Kapenga. The Wisconsin Examiner reported on each of these dual runs.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 24

Dan Knodl (R) vs. Matt Brown (D)

2024 District data: Trump+9.9, Hovde+11.3

2024 results: Knodl 59.9% - Walter 39.9%

• Knodl+20.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 25

Paul Tittl (R) vs. Chris Able (D)

2024 District data: Trump+15.4, Hovde+13.3

2024 results: Tittl: 61.7% - Welch 38.2%

• Tittl+23.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 27

Lindee Brill (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+30.0, Hovde+28.9

2024 results: Brill 67.7% - Ladson 32.2%

• Brill+35.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 28

Rob Kreibich (R) vs. Robin Lillesve (D)

2024 District data: Trump+30.4, Hovde+28.0

2024 results: Kreibich 66.1% - Johnson 33.8%

• Kreibich+32.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 29

Treig Pronschinske (R) vs. Chris Danou (D)

2024 District data: Trump+27.8, Hovde+23.6

2024 results: Pronschinske 64.9% - Schoonover 35.0%

• Pronschinske+29.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 31

Tyler August (R) vs. John Perryman (D)

2024 District data: Trump+22.6, Hovde+21.7

2024 results: August 63.3% - Henderson 36.5%

• August+26.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 32

Amanda Nedweski (R) vs. Greg Miller (D)

2024 District data: Trump+31.3, Hovde+29.3

2024 results: Nedweski 67.9% - Dhindsa 31.9%

• Nedweski+36.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Refer a friend

Assembly District 33

OPEN SEAT: Steve Wicklund (R) vs. Maria Elena Bisabarros (D)

Incumbent: Robin Vos, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+29.5, Hovde+28.8

2024 results: Vos 57.0% - Kupsik 29.8% - Clark (IND) 13.1%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 34

Rob Swearingen (R) vs. Merlin Van Buren (D)

2024 District data: Trump+19.7, Hovde+17.5

2024 results: Swearingen 64.1% - Nitzel 35.9%

• Swearingen+28.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 35

Calvin Callahan (R) vs. Elizabeth McCrank (D)

2024 District data: Trump+30.4, Hovde+26.8

2024 results: Callahan 67.7% - McCrank 32.2%

• Callahan+35.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 36

Jeffrey Mursau (R) vs. Shena Chapman (D)

2024 District data: Trump+38.2, Hovde+33.5

2024 results: Mursau 70.8% - Murray 28.9%

• Mursau+41.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 37

Mark Born (R) vs. LaToya Bates (D)

2024 District data: Trump+28.4, Hovde+25.5

2024 results: Born 68.6% - Bates 31.4% (REMATCH

• Born+37.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 38

William Penterman (R) vs. Terri Wenkman (D)

2024 District data: Trump+30.5, Hovde+ 28.3

2024 results: Penterman 67.3% - Hassey Nevarez 32.6%

• Penterman+34.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 39

Alex Dallman (R) vs. Michael Skivington (D)

2024 District data: Trump+33.3, Hovde+29.3

2024 results: Dallman 69.5% - Gordon 30.4%

• Dallman+39.1%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 41

Tony Kurtz (R) vs. Zach Commons (D)

2024 District data: Trump+17.4, Hovde+12.9

2024 results: Kurtz 63.1% - Henley 36.8%%

• Kurtz+26.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 49

Travis Tranel (R) vs. John Rindy (D)

2024 District data: Trump+17.1, Hovde+12.6

2024 results: Tranel 63.0% - Walker 36.9%

• Tranel+26.1

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 55

Nate Gustafson (R) vs. Alex Corrigan (D)

2024 District data: Trump+16.6, Hovde+15.0

2024 results: Gustafson 60.4% - Kehoe 39.5%

• Gustafson+20.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 56

OPEN SEAT: Anthony Phillips (R) vs. Grace Abitz (D)

Incumbent: Dave Murphy, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+27.2, Hovde+26.0

2024 results: Murphy 64.7% - Tseffos 35.2%

• Murphy+29.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 57

OPEN SEAT: Kevin Krentz (R) vs. Joey Marschall (D)

Incumbent: Kevin Petersen, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+34.3, Hovde+31.5

2024 results: Peterson 62.3% - Caves 28.4% - Testing (IND) 9.2%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 58

OPEN SEAT: Bernie Newman (R) vs. Dennis Degenhardt (D)

Incumbent: Rick Gundrum, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+36.5, Hovde+36.2

2024 results: Gundrum 71.3% - Anderson 28.6%

• Gundrum+42.6

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 59

OPEN SEAT: Bradley Petersen (R) vs. Jack Holzman (D)

Incumbent: Robert Brooks, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+47.8, Hovde+47.0

2024 results: Brooks 75.7% - Holzman 24.2%

• Brooks+51.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 60

OPEN SEAT: Marty Ryan (R) vs. Tiffany Brault (D)

Incumbent: Jerry O’Conner, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+14.3, Hovde+11.8

2024 results: O’Conner 60.1% - Lavrenz 39.8%

• O’Conner+20.3

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 63

Robert Wittke (R) vs. Eddie Phanichkul (D)

2024 District data: Trump+14.2, Hovde+13.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 67

David Armstrong (R) vs. Indiana Thompson (D)

2024 District data: Trump+29.5, Hovde+26.8

2024 results: Armstrong 67.6% - Foster 32.3%

• Armstrong+35.3

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 68

Rob Summerfield (R) vs. Elisha King (D)

2024 District data: Trump+37.6, Hovde+33.4

2024 results: Summerfield 72.8% - Pulcher 27.1%

• Summerfield+45.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 69

Karen Hurd (R) vs. Roger Halls (D) vs. Josh Kelley (Independent)

2024 District data: Trump+41.3, Hovde+36.4

2024 results: Hurd 71.9% - Halls 24.2% - Kelley 3.9%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 70

Nancy VanderMeer (R) vs. Stephanie Stuve Bodeen (D)

2024 District data: Trump+25.8, Hovde+21.1

2024 results: VanderMeer 66.8% - Gomez 33.2%

• VanderMeer+33.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 72

Scott Krug (R) vs. Christine Maltese (D)

2024 District data: Trump+22.8, Hovde+18.9

2024 results: Krug 63.9% - Campbell 36.0%

• Krug+27.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 74

Chanz Green (R) vs. Paul Johnson (D)

2024 District data: Trump+21.9, Hovde+18.9

2024 results: Green 62.4% - Rand Bruce 37.5%

• Green+24.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 75

Duke Tucker (R) vs. Keith Mogel (D)

2024 District data: Trump+31.1, Hovde+28.0

2024 results: Tucker 66.7% - Kleiss 33.3%

• Tucker+33.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 83

Dave Maxey (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+17.3, Hovde+18.3

2024 results: Maxey 60.9% - Schindler 38.9%

• Maxey+22.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 84

Chuck Wichgers (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+38.1, Hovde+38.5

2024 results: Wichgers 71.9% - Roper 28.0%

• Wichgers+43.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 86

John Spiros (R) vs. Andy Wuethrich (D)

2024 District data: Trump+27.8, Hovde+23.7

2024 results: Spiros 66.9% - Small 33.0%

• Spiros+33.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 87

Brent Jacobson (R) vs. Bob Look (D)

2024 District data: Trump+26.1, Hovde+23.6

2024 results: Jacobson 66.0% - Switalla 33.9%

• Jacobson+32.1

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 97

Cindi Duchow, running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+33.7, Hovde+34.9

2024 results: Duchow 70.9% - Leonard 28.9%

• Duchow+42.0

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 98

Jim Piwowarczyk (R) vs. Matt Philibert (D)

2024 District data: Trump+35.3, Hovde+36.5

2024 results: Piwowarczyk 71.1% - Schmechel 28.9%

• Piwowarczyk+42.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Assembly District 99

Barbara Dittrich (R), running uncontested

2024 District data: Trump+31.9, Hovde+33.0

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R (UNCONTESTED)

Subscribe now

Give a gift subscription

The safe Democrats (26)

(Note: All Republicans are incumbents, unless an open seat is noted)

Assembly District 7

Karen Kirsch (D) vs. Lee Whiting (R)

2024 District data: Harris+14.5, Baldwin+18.5

2024 results: Kirsch 58.5% - Whiting 41.2%

• Kirsch+17.3

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 8

Ismael Luna (D) vs. Angel Sanchez (R)

Incumbent: Sylvia Ortiz-Velez, lost in Democratic primary

2024 District data: Harris+46.3, Baldwin+51.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 9

Priscilla Prado (D) vs. Sam Guerrero (R)

2024 District data: Harris+33.7, Baldwin 41.0

2024 results: Prado 70.2% - Antczak 29.5%

• Prado+40.7

Prado’s campaign recently fired a staff member after a report from Hispanic News Network showed the staff member is on the state sex offender registry.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 10

Darrin Madison (D) vs. Robert Longwell-Grice (Wisconsin Green)

No Republican running

2024 District data: Harris+69.2, Baldwin+69.8

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 11

Sequanna Taylor (D) vs. Shandowlyon Reaves (R)

2024 District data: Harris+75.2, Baldwin+76.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 12

Russell Goodwin Sr., running uncontested

2024 District data: Harris+59.6, Baldwin+61.2

2024 results: Goodwin 80.5% - Alexander (IND) 18.9%

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D (UNCONTESTED)

Assembly District 13

OPEN SEAT: Amy Zimmerman (D) vs. Mike Morgan (R)

Incumbent: Robyn Vining, not seeking re-election, running for Senate in District 5

2024 District data: Harris+20.5, Baldwin+17.7

2024 results: Vining 57.2% - Michalski 42.6%

• Vining+14.6

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 16

Kalan Haywood (D) vs. Alciro Deacon (R)

2024 District data: Harris+71.5, Baldwin+73.1

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 17

Supreme Moore Omokunde (D) vs. Charlene Abughrin (R)

2024 District data: Harris+67.6, Baldwin+68.7

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 18

Margaret Arney (D) vs. Joel Richmond (R)

2024 District data: Harris+66.3, Baldwin+66.4

2024 results: Arney: 82.2% - Anderson 17.5%

• Arney+64.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 19

Ryan Clancy (D) vs. Yasmine Outlaw (R)

2024 District data: Harris+60.0, Baldwin+61.6

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 20

Christine Sinicki (D) vs. Kyle Cleary (R)

2024 District data: Harris+18.8, Baldwin+22.0

2024 results: Sinicki 61.0% - Moeller 38.8%

• Sinicki+22.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 23

Deb Andraca (D) vs. Aleaner Pabonnie (R)

2024 District data: Harris+28.3, Baldwin+26.2

2024 results: Andraca 62.6% - O’Brien Wolf 37.3%

• Andraca+25.2

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 44

Ann Roe (D) vs. Ron Woodman (R)

2024 District data: Harris+10.8, Baldwin+13.3

2024 results: Roe 56.4% - Danielson 43.5%

• Roe+12.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 47

Randy Udell (D) vs. Sandy Bakk (R)

2024 District data: Harris+43, Baldwin+43.5

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 48

Andrew Hysell (D) vs. Mark Kjorlie (R)

2024 District data: Harris+37.0, Baldwin+37.5

2024 results: Hysell 67.3% - Rubric 32.5%

• Hysell+34.8

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 52

Lee Snodgrass (D) vs. Reive Pullen (R)

2024 District data: Harris+14.6, Baldwin+15.7

2024 results: Snodgrass 57.3% - Cooke 42.8%

• Snodgrass+14.5

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 62

Angelina Cruz (D) vs. Mike Bellagio (R)

2024 District data: Harris+22.1, Baldwin+23.1

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 64

Tip McGuire (D) vs. Ed Hibsch (R)

2024 District data: Harris+6.3, Baldwin+10.0

2024 results: McGuire 55.6% - Hibsch 44.2%

• McGuire+11.4

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 73

Angela Stroud (D) vs. Frank Kostka (R)

2024 District data: Harris+15.5, Baldwin+18.4

2024 results: Stroud 58.3% - Kostka 41.5%

• Stroud+16.7

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 76

OPEN SEAT: Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford (D) vs. Nina Chat (R)

Incumbent: Francesca Hong, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Harris+79.0, Baldwin+80.5

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 77

Renuka Mayadev (D) vs. Jane McCormick (R)

2024 District data: Harris+64.9, Baldwin+67.2

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 78

Shelia Stubbs (D) vs. Henry Johnson (R)

2024 District data: Harris+61.7, Baldwin+63.0

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 79

Lisa Subeck (D) vs. John Fons (R)

2024 District data: Harris+71.8, Baldwin+72.0

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 80

Mike Bare (D) vs. Simran Arora (R)

2024 District data: Harris+48.3, Baldwin+47.2

2024 results: Bare 73.4% - Relph 26.5%

• Bare+46.9

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Assembly District 81

Alex Joers (D) vs. Mark Maier (R)

2024 District data: Harris+38.8, Baldwin+38.4

2024 results: UNCONTESTED

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Find our preview of the Wisconsin State Senate here.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This is part of The Recombobulation Area’s 2026 Election Mega-Preview of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature.

Read Dan Shafer’s column introducing the series, “Wisconsin’s Fork in the Road.”

This part of the preview includes a district-by-district breakdown of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Senate. That includes 17 races, all in odd-numbered districts.

Find our preview of the Wisconsin State Assembly here.

Go to MyVote Wisconsin, find your district, see what’s on your ballot, and make a plan to vote.

Of the two chambers in the Wisconsin State Legislature, it’s the State Senate where Democrats have the best chance of winning control. By most objective assessments, Democrats are favored to win a slim majority.

That, on its own, would be a tectonic shift in Wisconsin politics. Democrats have not controlled either chamber of the legislature since the 2009-10 session, and flipping even just the Senate would change the dynamic of how Wisconsin is governed in significant ways. For one example, hundreds of Gov. Evers’ appointments to various boards and commissions were held up by an obstructionist Republican majority — that would disappear if Democrats won control. The powerful budget-writing committee has been tilted 12-4 in Republicans’ favor throughout their time in the majority? That balance would change significantly if Democrats controlled the Senate — and would mean one Democratic co-chair of the committee. This would impact literally every aspect of governing in the state, in one form or another.

In 2024, while Republicans won the state’s 10 Electoral College votes, held the state’s swing districts in the House, and won an Assembly majority, it was victories in the State Senate — along with the win from Tammy Baldwin — that proved to be the biggest bright spots for Democrats on an otherwise regrettable night. Senate Dems went five-for-five in competitive races, shrinking the Republican margin from a supermajority to just a three-seat advantage.

New, fairer maps were in place for the 2024 election, but because senators serve four-year terms, those senators in even-numbered districts were up in 2024, but those in odd-numbered districts still served their full term. Now, in 2026, this is the first election in the State Senate — and the legislature, at large — where those old, gerrymandered maps are fully in the rearview mirror.

So, because Democrats made significant gains in 2024 — powered by key wins by Jodi Habush Sinykin, Jamie Wall, Kristin Dassler-Alfheim and Sarah Keyeski, who all flipped seats — they are in position now to take the Senate.

But that is far from a given, and it is very likely that the eventual outcome will have, at most, a three-seat majority. This is Wisconsin, after all.

But there are three districts in the Senate that were won by Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin in 2024 that have not yet been on the ballot under new maps, and if Democrats win just two of those three, they win the Senate majority. If they win all three, it would be an 18-15 Democratic majority — matching the largest Democratic margin in Wisconsin’s State Senate at any point over the last 30+ years.

Share

Talking to The New York Times, Democratic Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein recently said, “I sincerely think this is the most important election that Wisconsin has ever seen.”

Hesselbein, who has helped pilot Senate Democrats into being in this position, is running unopposed for re-election, so she will be there regardless of how this election shakes out.

But on the Republican side, Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu is not seeking re-election. Swing district senators Rob Hutton and Van Wanggaard are not seeking re-election. State Sen. Jesse James, a Republican who was drawn into a new district that matched him up against a Democratic incumbent, eventually chose not to run. In all, six of the 12 Republican senators up this year are not seeking re-election. And in downballot races like these, incumbency matters a great deal.

Of the 17 races on the ballot this year in the State Senate, Republicans are outright favorites in nine of them. But of those senators not up for re-election this year, the balance is 10-6 in Democrats’ favor. Combine that with this year’s projections (as you’ll see below), that makes 15 seats likely to go Republican, and 16 likely to be Democratic — with two seats to determine the majority.

But, as always, every race is different. And each of these races matters. Could a blue wave year put Senate District 25 in play? Could the two districts where an independent candidate (and no Democrat) is running change the dynamics for those seats? Could a longtime Democratic senator be unseated by way of incumbent backlash? Could results in a deep red or deep blue district surprise people?

It’s the voters who will decide.

Share The Recombobulation Area

So, let’s take a look at the decisions at hand for voters. Before you dive into our district-by-district breakdown, a few quick things.

First, find out who your legislators are, and if there is a race on the ballot in your district. Go do a quick search at the Find Your Legislator page, then head over to MyVote Wisconsin’s “What’s On My Ballot” page to see if there’s a race for Senate on your ballot this fall. Always be prepared and have a plan to vote.

Second, as per tradition, we’ve broken this down by category in the breakdown, but given the nomenclature of the prognosticator class, have a breakdown in the more familiar format along the political spectrum:

• Safe D(4) - Likely D(0) - Lean D(2) - Toss Up(2) - Lean R(0) - Likely R(1) - Safe R(8)

Third: Here are the senators who are not on the ballot this year, since they were elected to four-year terms under the new maps in 2024:

• Republicans: Eric Wimberger, Rob Stafsholt, Mary Felzkowski, Dan Feyen, Patrick Testin, Julian Bradley (6)

• Democrats: Dora Drake, LaTonya Johnson, Jodi Habush Sinykin, Sarah Keyeski, Melissa Ratcliff, Kristin Dassler-Alfheim, Bob Wirch, Kelda Roys, Jamie Wall, Brad Pfaff (10)

OK, let’s get to it. The Recombobulation Area’s district-by-district preview of the upcoming elections in the Wisconsin State Senate.

Recombobulation Area Overall Rating: LEAN D

CATEGORIES:

• The most competitive races (3)

• The close race with a Democratic favorite (1)

• The likely Republican open seat (1)

• The independent candidates running in safe Republican districts (2)

• The safe Democrats (4)

• The safe Republicans (6)

DISTRICTS:

District 1 | District 3 | District 5 | District 7 | District 9 | District 11 | District 13 | District 15 | District 17 | District 19 | District 21 | District 23 | District 25 | District 27 | District 29 | District 31 | District 33

The most competitive races (3)

• 2 open seats

• 1 Republican incumbent

Senate District 5

Candidates:

• Robyn Vining (Democratic)

• Mike Roberts (Republican)

Incumbent: Republican Rob Hutton, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Harris+5.9, Baldwin+5.0

District Map:

In 2018, Robyn Vining became the first Democrat to flip a seat under gerrymandered maps that were heavily tilted toward Republicans. She won in Assembly District 14, in Milwaukee’s western suburbs, by just 138 votes. In 2020, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos targeted her in a variety of ways, but Vining prevailed nonetheless, winning by an almost 8-point margin.

Vining has proven to be a strong candidate — and legislator, as one of the key voices to help pass postpartum Medicaid expansion — in her own right. She’s also has been in the right place at the right time, as her home city of Wauwatosa has become a prime example of a broader shift in the Trump era realignment. This was close to being a 50-50 city when Barack Obama faced Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election, but just 12 years later, was won by Kamala Harris by a 40-point margin1.

Vining has served four terms in the Assembly, and is now seeking office in the Senate. Given the strength of her credentials and the shifting political dynamics of this district, she is the favorite to win this race.

The Republican running in the district is Mike Roberts, making his first bid for political office. Roberts is a physical therapist and the owner and founder of Wisconsin Orthopedic Physical Therapy, which opened in 2013. The Milwaukee Courier has reported on a number of issues involving Roberts’ business, including a several legal matters, including instances where Roberts took his patients to small claims court and others where he was sued by the state Department of Workforce Development for “failing to pay unemployment insurance taxes.”

If Republican incumbent Rob Hutton had run for re-election, this race would be much closer to toss-up territory. But with a political newcomer with a checkered record running against someone who has represented part of the district for eight years and has a track record of winning tough races and fighting for issues that matter, this is the most likely Democratic flip in the entire State Senate.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D (FLIP)

Senate District 17

Candidates:

• Jenna Jacobson (Democratic)

• Howard Marklein (Republican)

Incumbent: Howard Marklein (Assembly 2011-2015; Senate 2015-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+1.0, Baldwin+4.6

District map:

Of the three most competitive races in the State Senate, this is the only one in which a Republican incumbent is running for re-election. State Sen. Howard Marklein is seeking his fourth term in the State Senate.

The 71-year-old from Spring Green has served as the co-chair of the powerful budget-writing Joint Committee on Finance since 2021, and has been on the committee since 2015. That means that he’s been at the helm for many a fraught budget process during this era of divided government, where the Democratic governor, Tony Evers, proposes a budget, and the Republican-controlled budget committee votes to get rid of just about every proposal, starting over with a GOP-written budget. Marklein has played a key role in Republican leadership in the legislature during the GOP’s 16-year run controlling both the Senate and Assembly. Along with his role on the Joint Committee on Finance, he was in a leadership position as the President Pro Tempore of the Senate from 2017 to 2021.

While Marklein is certainly more vulnerable than ever in his first election under new maps, he has out-performed the top of the ticket before — and very well could prevail once again. As John Johnson of Marquette University recently pointed out, “In 2022, Marklein won 60% of the vote to Tim Michels’ 52% (in the 2022 boundaries of the district). In the 2018 version of the district, Marklein won 54% to Walker’s 49%. And in 2014, Marklein again outperformed, winning 55% to Walker’s 51%.” Marklein has been a formidable candidate, and incumbency matters a great deal in downballot races, and serving for as long as Marklein has certainly makes him more well-known than a typical candidate, which could be to his advantage.

The Democratic challenger in this race is State Rep. Jenna Jacobson of Oregon, Wisconsin, who is in her second term in the State Assembly, currently representing District 50, which includes parts of southwestern Dane County and all of Green County. She serves on several committees, and is currently the ranking member for the committees on agriculture and on sporting heritage. Jacobson previously served on the Village of Oregon Board of Trustees for several terms between 2017 and 2022. Jacobson won a competitive primary in August, with more than 59% of the vote, defeating two other Democrats.

This southwestern Wisconsin district has been one of the swingier regions in the state. In the 2024 presidential election, some of the biggest county-by-county swings were seen within this very district. Four of the counties that saw the biggest shifts toward Trump from 2020 to 2024 — Lafayette, Iowa, Crawford and Grant — are within District 17. If those rightward shifts continue, and Marklein continues to over-perform downballot, this district could remain red. But given the swingy nature of this region, the environment souring on Trump, and an experienced Assembly representative from the district challenging for the seat, this seat could flip — and be the seat that determines a new Democratic majority in the State Senate.

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

Senate District 21

Candidates:

• Trevor Jung (Democratic)

• Jim Croft (Republican)

Incumbent: Republican Van Wanggaard, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Harris+1.2, Baldwin+2.2

District map:

Republican incumbent Van Wanggaard is retiring from the Senate after more than a decade serving in the 21st District, and the 74-year-old’s decision not to run for another term could be an especially consequential one for the balance of power in the Senate. The advantage of incumbency typically adds a few points in the overall margin, and because this is an open seat, that advantage will not be a factor.

What certainly was a factor in the changing dynamics in this district, however, were new maps. In 2022, Wanggaard was re-elected without facing a Democratic challenger for a seat that leaned GOP by a nearly 20-point margin. Now, this district includes southwestern Milwaukee County and northern Racine County, including the city of Racine.

Trevor Jung is the Democratic candidate running in this district, and he currently works for the city of Racine as its Transit and Mobility Director. He previously served on the Racine Common Council, elected at the age of 23, the city’s youngest elected alderperson since 1862. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has reported that Jung has a significant fundraising advantage in this race. He’s an energetic young leader who has made his presence known in southeastern Wisconsin in recent years.

The Republican running in the race is Jim Croft, a political newcomer himself. However, his wife, Marina Croft, ran for State Senate in 2020, coming in fourth in a five-candidate Republican primary that was won by now-State Sen. Julian Bradley. This is Jim Croft’s first time running for political office, and his work has been in the private sector, his bio listing a variety of roles and a candidate Q&A listing his current occupation as “IT analyst and small business owner.”

This could be a winnable race for either candidate, and this being an open seat in what’s essentially a 50-50 district means it’s anyone’s ballgame. But right now, Jung appears to have a slight edge going into the final stretch. This one could move from “Toss Up” to “Lean D” if the current trajectory holds.

Bonus fun fact: Trevor Jung recently married Grace Girard, who appeared on (and won!) Season 2 of the FOX reality TV show, “Farmer Wants A Wife.”

Recombobulation Area Rating: TOSS UP

The close race with a Democratic favorite (1)

Senate District 31

Candidates:

• Jeff Smith (Democratic)

• Michele Magadance Skinner (Republican)

Incumbent: Jeff Smith (Assembly 2007-2011, Senate 2019-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+2.2, Baldwin+4.8

District map:

Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith won one of the closest races in the State Senate in 2022, defeating Republican David Estenson by a margin of less than 1% in a district that Donald Trump won by 4% in 2020. New maps make this a slightly more favorable district for Democrats, and was won by Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin by slim margins in 2024. The 71-year-old Smith is seeking re-election for a third term in the Senate.

Smith has been in leadership as the Assistant Minority Leader for Democrats in the Senate since 2023. Along with various roles in public service — which, along with time in both the Assembly (2005-2011) and Senate (2018-present), also included serving as the Town Chair in Brunswick from 2001 to 2007 — he ran a window cleaning business for more than 30 years.

Initially, it seemed like this race might pair two incumbents against each other, which is something that has happened a few times under new maps. In a press release issued on Oct. 16, 2025, Republican State Sen. Jesse James proclaimed, “I AM COMING HOME!”, noting that his hometown of Altoona was in District 31. A few months later, however, James changed his tune and dropped out of the race. Two incumbents facing each other might have made this a toss-up seat, but without James on the ballot, Smith is the favorite.

He’ll now face Republican Michelle Magadance Skinner, who is currently serving in her second term on the Eau Claire County Board. Magadance Skinner is a former TV broadcaster who also ran for State Assembly in 2024, losing to Democrat Jodi Emerson in District 91.

Magadance Skinner has faced some controversy during the campaign, after a report showed she had claimed primary residence in both Wisconsin and Georgia, and also voted in both states — in the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin, and in the U.S. Senate runoff elections that happened on Jan. 5, 2021. The State Senate Democratic Committee sued to remove Magadance Skinner from the ballot, but that suit was eventually dismissed.

This district is in a swingy part of the state, in Eau Claire and the Chippewa Valley, but Smith’s experience in the district as a strong incumbent, along with the controversy his opponent has faced, makes him the favorite to hold this seat.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LEAN D

The likely Republican open seat (1)

State Senate District 25

Candidates:

• Charly Ray (Democratic)

• Erik Severson (Republican)

Incumbent: Romaine Quinn, running in Senate District 23

2024 District Data: Trump+13.6, Hovde+10.6

District map:

This is a seat Republicans at the top of the ticket carried by double-digits in the 2024 election, so a Democratic victory here is unlikely. But if things go especially well for Democrats in 2026, this is the reach seat that would be in play. This is the northernmost district in the state, bordering Minnesota, Lake Superior, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

Before a couple rounds of redistricting, District 25 was represented by a Democrat (Janet Bewley), but this part of the state has been trending toward Republicans for several election cycles. The incumbent here is Romaine Quinn, who was drawn into District 23 under new maps, making this an open seat.

Erik Severson is the Republican running for this seat, and is the favorite to win. He previously served in the State Assembly from 2011 to 2015, and is a physician. Severson won a competitive primary against former state representative Angie Sapik, 54% to 46%, in August.

In the general election, Severson will face Democrat Charly Ray, who is in his fourth term serving on the Bayfield County Board after previously serving on the Town of Bayview board for 10 years. He’s also a forester and, with his wife co-owns an independent bookstore in Bayfield.

Recombobulation Area Rating: LIKELY R

The independent candidates running in safe Republican districts (2)

State Senate District 1

Candidates:

• Mark Becker (Independent)

• Nic Cravillion (Republican)

Incumbent: André Jacque, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Trump+20.3, Hovde+18.7

District map:

This is one of two districts where, in a race for an open seat, there is no Democratic candidate running. Instead, there are independent candidates taking on a Republican — perhaps like Dan Osborn in his bid for the U.S. Senate in Nebraska.

One of those is Mark Becker, the former chair of the Republican Party of Brown County, who has since left the party during the Trump years. Becker is also the former host of “Rational Revolution” on Civic Media, and has written for The Recombobulation Area.

In this northeastern Wisconsin district, which includes Door County, Becker is facing Nic Cravillion, who won a four-candidate Republican primary with 40.5% of the vote, with the next closest candidate at about 25%. Cravillion has worked as a District Director for the incumbent Republican state senator, Andre Jacque, who endorsed him in this campaign. Cravillion also serves in the military, currently in the Wisconsin Army National Guard, and previously served overseas in Afghanistan in the U.S. Army.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

State Senate District 9

Candidates:

• Christian Ellis (Independent)

• Amy Binsfeld (Republican)

Incumbent: Devin LeMahieu, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Trump+15.7, Hovde+15.0

District map:

Gov. Evers is not seeking re-election, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is not seeking re-election, and the state senator from District 9, Devin LeMahieu, is also not seeking re-election. LeMahieu has been the Republican Majority Leader since 2021, after former majority leader Scott Fitzgerald was elected to Congress, and has been one of the key figures in the Republican-controlled state legislature for the past five years.

His pending departure has not garnered the same attention as that of Evers or Vos, understandably, but so much change happening on so many fronts at once is quite notable. Whether or not Republicans retain control of the Senate, it will be interesting to see who steps up. State Sen. Patrick Testin of Stevens Point is leading the Senate GOP’s campaign effort this year, and State Sen. Mary Felzkowski of Tomahawk has served as Senate President, so those are two names to watch.

Running to keep the Sheboygan area seat in Republican control is Amy Binsfeld. Binsfeld is a former state representative, serving one term from 2023 to 2025, losing to Democrat Joe Sheehan in the 2024 election. In the 2022 election in which she won, she faced no Republican primary opponent and defeated an independent candidate in the general election.

She’ll face an independent again this year in Christian Ellis, who has served on the Sheboygan County Board since 2022. Ellis also served in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and was deployed to Iraq in 2004.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

The Safe Democrats (4)

• 2 safe incumbents

• 2 running unopposed

Senate District 3

Candidates:

• Tim Carpenter (Democratic)

• No other candidates

Incumbent: Tim Carpenter (Assembly 1985-2003; Senate 2003-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+27.5, Baldwin+32.7

District map:

Tim Carpenter has served in the legislature for more than 40 years, first elected to the Assembly in 1984 at the age of 24. He is the longest-serving current member of the legislature. He is running unopposed, as he has many times in his time in the Senate. He has only faced a Republican challenger twice in the seven times he’s been on the ballot.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D (UNCONTESTED)

Senate District 7

Candidates:

• Chris Larson (Democratic)

• Mike Moeller (Republican)

Incumbent: Chris Larson (2010-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+28.3, Baldwin 31.0

District map:

Chris Larson has served in the State Senate since 2011, and is now seeking his fifth term. He’ll face Mike Moeller, who ran in Assembly District 20 in 2024, losing to Democrat Christine Sinicki.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

State Senate District 15

Candidates:

• Mark Spreitzer (Democratic)

• Scott Fleming (Republican)

• Christopher Dean (Serving People Not Parties)

Incumbent: Mark Spreitzer (Assembly 2015-2023; Senate 2023-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+7.7, Baldwin+10.6

District map:

Based on some of the district data, this could be in “Likely D” territory, but Spreitzer significantly outran the top of the ticket in 2022, and is a strong incumbent in a district that Democrats have held since the late 1990s. There might be a year when this seat could be vulnerable for Democrats, but not this one.

Spreitzer is the Minority Caucus Chair for Senate Democrats, and has served in the legislature since 2015 — three terms in the Assembly, and now seeking his second in the Senate. Republican challenger Scott Fleming serves on the Johnsville Township Board of Supervisors. This race also features a third-party candidate in Christopher Dean, who is running with the “Serving People Not Parties” party. Dean is a military veteran, serving with the U.S. Army in Iraq.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D

Senate District 27

Candidates:

• Dianne Hesselbein (Democratic)

• No other candidates

Incumbent: Dianne Hesselbein (Assembly 2013-2023, Senate 2023-present)

2024 District Data: Harris+52.4, Baldwin+51.9

District map:

Dianne Hesselbein has served in the legislature since 2013, in the Assembly for 10 years, and in the Senate since winning in 2022, and becoming Minority Leader in 2023. She faces no Republican challenger in this year’s race. If Democrats win a majority in the State Senate, she is poised to become the next Majority Leader.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE D (UNCONTESTED)

The safe Republicans (6)

• 2 open seats

• 4 safe incumbents

Senate District 11

Candidates:

• Adam Duda (Democratic)

• Ellen Schutt (Republican)

Incumbent: Steve Nass, not seeking re-election

2024 District data: Trump+27.9, Hovde+26.7

District map:

Steve Nass is not seeking re-election after more than a decade in the Senate, which followed more than two decades in the Assembly. He has served in the state legislature since 1990, and most recently was the co-chair of the powerful Joint Committee for Review of Administrative Rules.

Running to keep the seat Republican is Ellen Schutt, who previously served in the State Assembly from 2023 to 2025. She won a three-candidate primary in August, defeating Sandy Wiedmeyer and Nick Polce, receiving 44% of the vote. In the general election, Schutt will face Adam Duda, who serves as a trustee on the East Troy Village Board.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Senate District 13

Candidates:

• Sasha Ripley (Democratic)

• John Jagler (Republican)

Incumbent: John Jagler (Assembly 2013-2021; Senate 2021-present)

2024 District data: Trump+30.8, Hovde+27.8

District map:

Jagler has served in the legislature since 2013, for eight years in the Assembly and in the Senate since 2021, to fill the seat occupied by Scott Fitzgerald, who was elected to Congress in 2020. Jagler is the Chair of the Committee on Education and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Financial Institutions and Sporting Heritage. He’ll face Sasha Ripley, an educator and first-time candidate.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Senate District 19

Candidates:

• Emily Tseffos (Democratic)

• Rachael Cabral-Guevara (Republican)

Incumbent: Rachael Cabral-Guevara (Assembly 2021-2022, Senate 2023-present)

2024 District data: Trump+25.8, Hovde+24.0

District map:

Emily Tseffos is the chair of the Democratic Party of Outagamie County, and has been a contributor here at The Recombobulation Area. She also ran for Assembly in 2024. Cabral-Guevara is seeking a second term in the Senate, and is the Chair of the Senate Committee on Health, and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Universities and Technical Colleges.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Senate District 23

Candidates:

• Jeff Foster (Democratic)

• Romaine Quinn (Republican)

Incumbent: Jesse James, not seeking re-election

2024 District Data: Trump+35.8, Hovde+31.9

District map:

This is the most pro-Trump district on the ballot this year in the State Senate, based on 2024 election results.

Quinn is the Chair of the Committee on Insurance, Housing, Rural Issues and Forestry and Vice-Chair of the Committee on Education. He was elected to be mayor of the city of Rice Lake when he was just 19 years old. He served in the Assembly from 2015 to 2019, and has served in the Senate since 2023. He faces Jeff Foster, a sheep farmer from Dunn County who defeated Richard Pulcher in the Democratic primary in August.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Senate District 29

Candidates:

• Gillian Battino (Democratic)

• Cory Tomczyk (Republican)

Incumbent: Cory Tomczyk (Senate 2023-present)

2024 District Data: Trump+19.3, Hovde+16.5

District map:

Cory Tomczyk is the Chair of the Committee on Transportation and Local Government and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Agriculture and Revenue. Before running for Senate, he served on the Mosinee School Board from 2006 to 2019. He faces Democrat Gillian Battino, a retired radiologist, who previously ran for State Treasurer in 2022, coming in second in a three-candidate Democratic primary.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

Senate District 33

Candidates:

• Mike Van Someren (Democratic)

• Chris Kapenga (Republican)

Incumbent: Chris Kapenga (Assembly 2011-2015, Senate 2015-present)

2024 District Data: Trump+33.6, Hovde+34.8

District map:

State Sen. Chris Kapenga is currently running for two different roles. He’s running for re-election in the State Senate, and he’s running for Waukesha County Executive. His campaign website currently directs visitors only to a page promoting his run for County Executive.

The election for Waukesha County Executive has an unusual schedule, with the primary scheduled for Nov. 17 and the general election on Dec. 15. This is an open race following the tragic passing of Paul Farrow, who had served in the role for more than 10 years. He died in July at the age of 61.

Kapenga has been in the legislature since 2011, in the Senate since 2015. He was the Senate President for two terms, from 2021-2025. Van Someren ran for Congress in 2022, losing to Scott Fitzgerald.

Recombobulation Area Rating: SAFE R

COMING SOON: The Recombobulation Area’s 2026 Election Mega-Preview of the State Assembly

Subscribe to support our work — and so you don’t miss a thing.

Subscribe now

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

Democrats have their best chances of winning a majority in the Wisconsin State Legislature since the year Barack Obama was first elected president.

There’s been an extraordinarily long and as-winding-as-the-boundaries-of-a-gerrymandered-district road to get here, but we are here. Here we are.

Now, let’s entertain the notion that this could actually happen. For 16 long years, Republican control of the state legislature — often under the leadership of Robin Vos, the longest-serving Assembly Speaker in Wisconsin’s history — has been the GOP’s primary source of power in Wisconsin. Much has changed in Wisconsin over those 16 years, but the legislative branch has remained under the same partisan control. Through the eight years of Republican Scott Walker’s time as governor and the now-nearly-eight years of Democratic Tony Evers’ — along with a leftward and pro-democracy ideological shift in the balance of power on the state Supreme Court — the Republican majority in the state legislature has remained. There are high school students in this state who have never lived in a Wisconsin where there’s been Democratic control of either chamber of the state legislature. The Packers’ last Super Bowl victory happened more recently than Democrats last controlled the state legislature. It’s been a really long time.

Share

Throughout this time, the Republicans running things have not exactly been moderate, middle-of-the-road Republicans. Wisconsin’s archconservative legislative leadership has governed the state more like a deep red state than the purple state it is. In the 2010s, it often served as the petri dish for far-right “reforms,” particularly when Republicans had trifecta control while Scott Walker was governor. In many ways, in the years following Tony Evers’ 2018 victory, that Republican-controlled legislature moved even further away from the center — in a mix of gavel-in, gavel-out obstruction, seemingly endless election-denialism, and other MAGA-fied lurches to the right.

Evers, in his nearly eight years as governor, has often been described by his fellow Democrats as a great “goalie” for blocking many Republican-authored bills from becoming law with his powerful veto. But that has meant that Democrats have never been in a position to play much offense and pass bills of their own. Republican leadership has often gone over the top to block Democratic bills from even having a public hearing, much less a vote. In this era of Republican control of the legislature since 2011, the number of Democratic-authored bills that received a public hearing dropped to just 1.9% in the 2021-22 legislative session.

This divided, ultrapartisan dynamic surfaces every budget cycle, too. For the last eight years, every budget cycle in Wisconsin has started in a similarly frustrating manner. The Democratic governor, Tony Evers, will announce a budget proposal. Then, the Republican-controlled budget committee will get rid of just about everything from that proposal, removing hundreds of items almost regardless of what they might be. These might be popular proposals with majority support (expanding Medicaid, legalizing recreational marijuana, adding universal background checks for firearms, creating a paid leave program); they might be other post-Walker Democratic priorities (repealing anti-union laws like Act 10 or right-to-work, or big business tax breaks); they might be the type of thing both parties say they want to do (increasing mental health funding in schools, cutting taxes on the middle class); they might be more general nuts-and-bolts governing measures. But pretty much all of it gets tossed.

We’ve grown unfortunately accustomed to so much of this behavior, as though it’s just how things work. But it doesn’t have to be this way. And if voters in Wisconsin want change in this upcoming election, it’s votes cast in state legislative races, more than any vote for president or in any federal election, that will deliver that change.

Refer a friend

Some level of change is coming to the state legislature no matter which party ultimately wins control. Part of this era will come to an end through Vos’ pending retirement in the Assembly and the many Republican retirements in the Senate.

But the opportunity before voters this November is bigger than any one politician. With the first open race for governor in 16 years, and the first state legislative election happening in full after the fall of the gerrymander, this election is the real fork-in-the-road moment for Wisconsin’s state government.

So much has been building to this. Evers and the blue wave in 2018, and his re-election in 2022. State Supreme Court race after state Supreme Court race, from Rebecca Dallet’s victory in 2018 through Chris Taylor’s earlier this year, toppling the gerrymander along the way. Ben Wikler and the revival of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. New maps. Fresh hope. So much of what’s happened has been building to this very opportunity.

The last fork-in-the-road moment for Wisconsin arrived in 2010. Scott Walker and the era of conservative conquest in the state came next. This is Wisconsin’s opportunity to turn the page on that regrettable era and chart a course for a better future.

Democratic Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein recently said, “I sincerely think this is the most important election that Wisconsin has ever seen,” in an interview with The New York Times. As trite as the most important election of our lifetimes brand of rhetoric can be, Hesselbein just might be right about this one. As far as Wisconsin’s state government goes, there has been no election more important than the one before us in quite some time.

Give a gift subscription

For Democrats, electing David Crowley to be the next governor would be a monumental achievement. But without flipping the legislature and winning a trifecta, it would only be a continuation of the divided government dynamic that has dominated state politics for eight years. Crowley would, like Evers, be playing a whole lot of goalie if he were to win and the legislature remained under Republican control.

Any major change at this fork-in-the-road moment would come through the legislature. But while Democrats have their best opportunity to win control of the legislature in nearly two decades, it’s far from a given. Many prognosticators think Democrats have good chances of winning control of the Senate, but flipping the Assembly projects to be a tougher hill to climb. The most likely outcome for this fall’s elections might just be a different form of divided government than what we’ve seen for the last eight years: one in which the Senate and Assembly are controlled by different parties.

Nevertheless, being a slight underdog to win control of a legislative chamber that has been under Republican control for 16 years is a much better position for Democrats to be in than at any point in recent memory.

Here at The Recombobulation Area, we preview every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature. This will be our fourth time doing so. In 2020, our preview looked at the possibility of Democrats flipping a handful of seats that could have narrowed Republicans’ Assembly majority from a 29-seat margin to maybe a 26-seat margin. In 2022, it was about how Republicans had drawn themselves a fresh path to a two-thirds supermajority. Two years ago, new, fairer maps were in place, giving Democrats a chance at an Assembly majority, but it wouldn’t be until 2026 that flipping both chambers would be within reach.

Now, it’s a realistic possibility. This is the fork in the road, Wisconsin. Time to make your choice.

COMING SOON: The Recombobulation Area’s district-by-district preview of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature.

Subscribe to support our work — and so you don’t miss a thing.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Find all of these episodes on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed (Apple Podcasts, Spotify, here on Substack).

Subscribe now

There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down.

This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Friday, Sept. 18, at 1 p.m.

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

• 01:22 Measles in Wisconsin & vaccination rates

• 02:20 “Diarrhea lettuce” — why people aren’t paying attention

• 03:00 Farmers are persuadable: the 40% stat

• 05:41 Who are these farmers? Small vs. mega-farms

• 06:07 Diesel, harvest season & the cost squeeze

• 07:21 “It’s Biden’s fault” — 607 days later

• 08:30 What would make you break up with Trump?

• 09:45 Trump’s worst-ever approval numbers

• 10:47 The Iran war and what it’s doing to prices

• 13:00 The three November referendums explained

• 16:47 The places-of-worship amendment & pandemic rage

• 19:04 Why Republicans don’t advertise these amendments

• 20:02 WI-06: Brad Smith vs. Glenn Grothman

• 22:07 Kristin on WI-08: losing but building power

• 23:18 The spoiler math — independents & Green Party

• 25:11 Independent experiments: Mark Becker, SD-9

• 27:01 WI-01: Mitchell Berman gets DCCC money

• 27:37 Are Democrats writing off Van Orden?

• 30:02 Van Orden’s TMZ interview & the motorcycle

• 32:29 Red to Blue, and how to actually beat Steil

• 37:04 Berman’s record + Kristin’s upcoming interview

• 37:36 WI-07: the “nepo baby” and the debate dodge

• 39:06 Fred Clark’s long-odds case

• 41:33 SD-25: Charlie Ray and the trifecta math

• 42:53 The Bulwark story: Sean Duffy’s donor pipeline

• 44:14 The Great American Road Trip grift

• 46:24 A rubber stamp in Congress

• 47:25 MAGA breaks with Trump on AI

• 48:47 Salazar, Tucker, Rove, MTG — the cracks

• 50:16 Pump the brakes on blue tsunami talk

• 51:40 Affordability is a tanker, not a speedboat

• 52:20 Election integrity & what’s coming

• 53:11 Vote early, use a drop box

• 53:32 Be the annoying friend (the Velvet Underground rule)

• 55:21 Sway’s $500 ballot parties

• 56:07 The fuse bead video & rural healthcare math

• 57:44 Crowley’s anti-corruption agenda vs. Tiffany’s record

• 58:58 Tiffany’s three billionaires

• 59:25 Why the anti-Crowley attacks aren’t landing

• 01:00:44 Property taxes: the call is coming from inside the house

• 01:02:15 New segment: “What Are You Drinking?”

Watch this and every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

You can find every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed, available on Spotify (embedded below), Apple Podcasts (available here), and right here on Substack.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

With less than 50 days to go before the Nov. 3 election, Todd Allbaugh joined the podcast to recombobulate on the state of the race.

Todd is a former Republican who left the party during the Walker years, was a legislative staffer for former state senator Dale Schultz, and was the host of the “Todd Allbaugh Show” on Civic Media for several years. He’s also from Richland Center, which is right in range of many of the most closely competitive races happening in Wisconsin this year, including ones in the 3rd Congressional District, 51st Assembly District, and the 17th Senate District.

Allbaugh and host Dan Shafer talked about these elections, the race for governor, whether or not there should more than one debate between David Crowley and Tom Tiffany, the potential for a Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin, Democrats seeing an opportunity in the 1st Congressional District (and Mitchell Berman’s strong ad there), and much more.

Share

See a beat-by-beat breakdown of the episode here.

• (00:00:15) Intro — welcome back after a short break

• (00:01:15) Sponsor: Milwaukee Film's Dialogues Documentary Festival

• (00:02:02) Guest introduction: Todd Allbaugh

• (00:03:28) State Legislature landscape: post-gerrymander competitiveness, GOP retirements

• (00:05:27) Big-picture outlook for Western/Southwest Wisconsin races

• (00:06:10) Todd's political background: Dale Schultz, Scott Klug, leaving the GOP in 2011

• (00:08:11) 3rd Congressional District: Derrick Van Orden vs. Rebecca Cooke

• (00:14:20) Cooke’s big tent, Bernie Sanders' endorsement, authenticity debate, Van Orden's constituent services

• (00:17:22) Turning to down-ballot legislative races

• (00:18:16) 51st Assembly District: Todd Novak vs. Ben Gruber (Novak's anti-trans ad controversy)

• (00:23:35) 17th Senate District: Howard Marklein vs. Jenna Jacobson

• (00:33:04) Shifting to the Governor's race: Crowley vs. Tiffany

• (00:34:01) Tom Tiffany's plane crash incident

• (00:36:02) Crowley's visibility problem: yard signs, social media, name recognition

• (00:41:32) Suburban "WOW counties" and swing region dynamics

• (00:44:03) How Todd thinks Crowley really won the primary; advice for his campaign

• (00:47:00) Top issue: affordability, tariffs, tying Tiffany to Trump

• (00:52:16) GOP hypocrisy on "waste, fraud and abuse"

• (00:53:06) Debate format debate: only one gubernatorial debate this cycle

• (00:56:02) Final predictions: State Senate, Assembly, trifecta odds

• (01:00:03) Closing: voter registration reminder, final thoughts, Talarico's Texas Senate race

Watch this episode on our YouTube Channel here.

Audio-only podcast listeners can find this episode on Apple Podcasts (here) or on Spotify (below)

Get more from Dan Shafer in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Milwaukee Film is thrilled to reveal the online program guide for the 2026 Dialogues Documentary Festival, presented by Potawatomi Casino Hotel. The program guide includes a full schedule of film screenings and plenty of helpful information for Festival attendees. Physical copies of the program book are scheduled to arrive by Tuesday, September 8 at various locales, including Milwaukee Film’s Historic Cinemas: the Downer and Oriental Theatres. Folks are invited to pick up physical copies of the program book at the free and open to the public DDF26 Friends & Family Preview event on Tuesday, September 8 at the Oriental Theatre. Doors open at 6:30 PM and the program begins at 7:00 PM.

“Our audiences love to immerse themselves in the true stories and contemporary conversations started by new documentaries, as evidenced by the documentaries that have won the Audience Award at past Milwaukee Film Festivals,” explained Cara Ogburn, Milwaukee Film’s Artistic Director and lead documentary programmer. “Milwaukee audiences are curious and deeply engaged, and we look forward to satiating that hunger for nonfiction storytelling with a great set of fresh documentaries at this year’s Dialogues Documentary Festival that are sure to inspire.”

All-Access Passes for the 2026 Dialogues Documentary Festival are available now at an incredible value, with early-bird discounted pricing available through September 7. Individual film tickets will go on sale starting September 8 for Milwaukee Film Members and September 9 for the general public. Become a Milwaukee Film Member today for early access on discounted tickets.

DDF26 Film Lineup:

The full lineup of films is available online now at www.mkefilm.org/ddf.

NOTE: Many of the screenings will be immediately followed by talkbacks, Q&As, and/or panel discussions. We’ve indicated a number of these expected post-screening discussions below, but they are subject to change. Keep an eye on the online film descriptions for the most up-to-date information.

Agatha’s Almanac
Amalie Atkins | 2025 | Canada
9/25/2026 | 01:00 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
Fiercely independent 90-year-old Agatha Bock lives alone on her ancestral farm. Despite health challenges, she defiantly tends to her land, cultivating heirloom seeds passed down through generations. Agatha’s meditative processes and daily rituals form a vivid counterpoint to the rapid pace of contemporary life. Shot by an all-female crew over six years on 16mm film, the project captures the handmade materiality inherent in both the medium of film and Agatha’s tactile world. This program will be followed by a talkback.

Alicia Keys: Girl From Hell’s Kitchen
One9 | 2026 | United States
9/24/2026 | 07:00 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
In her own words, Grammy-winner Alicia Keys shares stories from her childhood while tracing her journey from the Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood of New York City to the Broadway stage. More than the story behind a Tony-winning musical, this intimate documentary reveals a young woman navigating life as the daughter of a single mother, surrounded by artists and dreamers, overcoming challenges, finding her voice, and forging a powerful path toward artistic freedom, growth, and acceptance.

All The Walls Came Down
Ondi Timoner | 2025 | United States
9/25/2026 | 06:00 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
When the L.A. fires of January 2025 destroy the home of multi-MFF alum filmmaker Ondi Timoner (Dig, We Live in Public, Last Flight Home), she does what filmmakers do best—picks up a camera—finding her town of Altadena in ruins and neighbors facing displacement. Led by activist Heavenly Hughes, the community rallies in solidarity amid climate catastrophe in this taut depiction of the transcendent power of place and community resilience in the face of grief and loss. This program will be followed by a virtual filmmaker Q&A.

Amazing Live Sea Monkeys
Mark Becker, Aaron Schock | 2026 | United States
9/27/2026 | 07:00 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
From her crumbling estate on the Potomac, Yolanda Signorelli von Braunhut wages a David-and-Goliath battle to reclaim her late husband’s iconic toy, Amazing Live Sea Monkeys!, from the corporate forces who stole the rights from her. Whether you raised Sea Monkeys, begged your parents to order them from a magazine, or love stories about mad genius entrepreneurs, this film will hook you with the toy’s surprising origins, enduring legacy, and the mysterious story behind its invention. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Ask E. Jean
Ivy Meeropol | 2025 | United States
9/26/2026 | 02:00 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
Over five decades, journalist E. Jean Carroll built a career urging women to speak up and stand their ground. In 2019, galvanized by the #MeToo movement, she did just that—publicly accusing a certain real estate mogul and U.S. president of sexual assault. As that figure continues to contest her account, Ask E. Jean expertly explores the high personal cost of refusing to stay silent and the power of truth to combat gaslighting.

Ceremony
Banchi Hanuse | 2026 | Canada
9/25/2026 | 07:15 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
When the ooligan fish vanishes from Bella Coola, British Columbia, its absence lingers like a scar on the Nuxalk people. From a ramshackled radio station, Indigenous voices rise through crackling airwaves to trace the forces no one was meant to uncover. What begins as a local broadcast becomes an awakening as testimony, watercolour animation and rare archival weave a story of survival, return and the quiet revolution of a Nation that refuses to disappear.

Cheyenne
Taimi Arvidson | 2026 | United States
9/26/2026 | 02:30 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
Cheyenne follows four fearless cowgirls competing in bronc riding on the rodeo circuit. After nearly a century of male-exclusivity, the women’s circuit is back to prove their perseverance, talent, and grit. In a sport that teaches you how to take a hard fall and get back up again, each of these women enters the arena for different reasons, pushing their physical and mental limits to win a coveted spot at the showdown known as the Daddy of ’em All: Cheyenne Frontier Days.

Daughters of the Forest: Mycelium Chronicles
Otilia Portillo Padua | 2026 | Mexico
9/26/2026 | 08:00 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
This sci-fi documentary invites us to reconsider the experiences of both human and non-human inhabitants of our world. We follow Lis and Juli, two young scientists from indigenous communities in Mexico that have long lived in symbiosis with the many mushrooms in their regions. Their pursuits are threatened by deforestation, lack of opportunity, and loss. Still, they share how mushrooms show us different possibilities of coexistence, helping them overcome obstacles to reshape their lives and futures.

Earth to Michael
Nico Lopez-Alegria, Zach Zuckerman | 2025 | United States
9/25/2026 | 02:00 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
Co-director Nico López-Alegría turns the camera on his dad, Michael, a NASA astronaut who became legendary for his lengthy missions to outer space. During his time in orbit, the family broke apart. Although Michael returned to Earth, he never came home. Equal parts interstellar and intimate, this coming-of-age story confronts two men of different generations and sexualities, asking us what sacrifices we’ll make for our loved ones to achieve their dreams.

Exodus
Nimco Sheikhaden | 2025 | United States, Panama
9/25/2026 | 12:30 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
What does life after life in prison look like? What is the deeper toll of separation and how can families heal after? EXODUS serves as a humanizing portrait of two women, Trinity Copeland and Assia Serrano, as they struggle to make sense of their lives post-release, exploring these overarching questions through a lyrical and poignant lens, and examining how one rebuilds a family fractured by profound loss. This program will be followed by a talkback.

First They Came for My College
Patrick Xavier Bresnan | 2026 | United States
9/25/2026 | 04:00 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
When their elite public honors college is transformed by a political coup, a group of students and faculty resist and risk everything to save the college they love.

Flood
Katy Scoggin | 2025 | United States
9/26/2026 | 05:00 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
Director Katy Scoggin is starting a project about evolution and geologic time, but disagreements with her father—a young-earth creationist who rejects the theory of evolution—keep getting in the way. When she films him in the classroom, where he is a loved and respected science teacher, she begins to see him more fully. With clarity and wry humor, Flood captures the complexity of a family that is both tightly knit and deeply divided. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Ghost in the Machine
Valerie Veatch | 2025 | United Kingdom
9/26/2026 | 05:15 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
Ghost in the Machine approaches ubiquitous questions like “What is AI?”, “Who is building it?”, and “What will humans become?” by exploring how emerging technologies have historically reshaped identity, culture, and global power. Director Valerie Veatch interviews a wide variety of historians, philosophers, sociologists, journalists, and thinkers from around the world to lend fresh perspectives on what AI is, how it works, and how people can maintain a sense of agency in a threatening and overbearing tech-driven world. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Girl Climber
Jon Glassberg | 2025 | United States
9/25/2026 | 05:15 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
Join Emily Harrington as she prepares for her next epic climb: ascending El Capitan in 24 hours. Featuring breathtaking cinematography and appearances from Alex Honnold (Free Solo), Girl Climber flips the script on the traditional climbing documentary—an emotional, edge-of-your-seat journey that’s as moving as it is heart-stopping. Against the majestic backdrop of Yosemite, Emily’s story becomes a portrait of courage, resilience, and what it truly takes to break barriers.

Heavy is the Crown - WORLD PREMIERE!
Sean Kafer | 2026 | United States
9/27/2026 | 04:30 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
Heavy Is the Crown follows charismatic Milwaukee community activist Vaun Mayes as he works alongside those most affected by cycles of violence, systemic neglect, and polarizing policing. Mayes reveals the resilience and care that sustain a community from within, empowering everyday community members to build programs and practices that nurture positivity in our city. The feature will be preceded by Dear Milwaukee, a short film made by youth at Arts@Large exploring similar themes and ideas. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A and talkback.

Human Shield
Erin Persley | 2026 | United States
9/27/2026 | 12:30 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
Facing a growing far-right extremist movement, Human Shield is an intimate portrait of abortion clinic escorts protecting vulnerable patients as they endure one of the most hostile 30-second walks of their lives. Told through the perspective of three clinic escort leaders from diverse backgrounds and experiences, this film investigates the struggle to maintain safety and balance mental exhaustion on the front lines of America’s longest culture war. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A and talkback.

Jane Elliott Against the World
Judd Ehrlich | 2026 | United States
9/26/2026 | 05:45 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
A rural Iowa schoolteacher became a national voice against racism after leading a controversial 1968 lesson in discrimination with her all-white third-grade class. Now nearly 90, Jane Elliott refuses to hold back amid today’s fights about race, history, and power after a lifetime of speaking out. A journey through Elliott’s remarkable life, this film also addresses the impact of one’s activism and determination to speak truth to large-scale powers on their family and home.

Kids Like Me
Cynthia Lowen, Jon Cohrs | 2026 | United States
9/26/2026 | 11:00 AM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
Meet Oliver, a 12-year-old murder-mystery enthusiast with a vivid imagination and a rare genetic condition. Inspired by his love of the genre, he sets out to bring his own mystery to the screen—with a little help from his friends. Offering an intimate window into growing up with disability and the power of community, Kids Like Me celebrates the pursuit of creative dreams and what becomes possible through collective care. This program will be followed by a talkback.

Landscapes of Memory
Leah Galant | 2026 | United States, Germany
9/27/2026 | 06:30 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
As a Jewish American filmmaker studies her past in Berlin, she grapples with the reality of her trauma being weaponized to inflict violence on Palestinians. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Love Apptually
Shalini Kantayya | 2025 | Australia, United States
9/27/2026 | 03:00 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
Following a French journalist’s journey from fascination to disillusionment, Love Apptually uncovers how dating platforms—used by hundreds of millions worldwide—are designed for user optimization rather than authentic human connection. What begins as a personal curiosity about Tinder evolves into a global investigation into the technological systems shaping modern love. Through deeply personal stories and investigative reporting, this film, from the director of Coded Bias, explores how a multibillion-dollar tech industry is quietly reshaping desire. This program will be followed by a virtual filmmaker Q&A.

Mexicanamerican
Eddie Sanchéz | 2026 | United States
9/24/2026 | 06:30 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
Expertly merging old VHS home movies with new family interviews, filmmaker Eddie Sánchez traces his parents’ journey from Mexico to the United States in this poignant and affecting documentary debut. While Sánchez explores a deeply personal history, this film resonates beyond families with similar stories and considers the power of reclaimed, remixed, and reinterpreted familial archives. The feature will be preceded by the local short film 馬小麥 (Little Madeline McGuire) directed by Madeline James McGuire. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Odyssey
Avi Belkin | 2026 | United States
9/27/2026 | 01:45 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
This remarkable archival documentary captures America’s greatest adventures in space: from the rise of NASA to the gripping rescue mission of Apollo 13, told entirely through over 2,500 hours of rare material including much never before available to the public. Audiences are brought to the center of the mission by focusing on astronaut and pilot Jim Lovell, using his personal experience with space flight as a framework to understand the effort and sacrifice required for the Apollo missions.

Once Upon a Time In Harlem
David Greaves, William Greaves | 2026 | United States
9/25/2026 | 08:15 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
A decade after his death, genre-defying filmmaker William Greaves delivers a final surprise with Once Upon a Time In Harlem. Drawn from a 1972 gathering, the film unites surviving luminaries of the Harlem Renaissance (Arna Bontemps, Noble Sissle, James Ven Der Zee—to name a few) in electric conversations about art and legacy. Hailed as a “triumph” by The Hollywood Reporter and poised for awards season, this treasure offers a vivid, firsthand encounter with a movement that reshaped American history.

Out of Reach: The Struggle for the American Dream - WORLD PREMIERE!
Adam Sheiner Najberg, John W Miller, Faith Kohler | 2025 | United States
9/26/2026 | 11:00 AM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
Do you think life is overall better or worse for workers than it was 40 years ago? Out of Reach seeks to answer this question by following five years in the lives of four generations of Milwaukee workers, documenting the ongoing slide that has made the middle class disappear at an alarming clip. Our history is a cautionary tale for America about the consequences of trickle-down economics and a nihilistic culture war. This program will be followed by a Q&A and talkback.

Sara Bareilles: Good Grief
Josh Alexander | 2026 | United States
9/27/2026 | 08:00 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
For the first time in seven years, Grammy-winning singer-songwriter Sara Bareilles returns to the studio with close friends to begin recording her most intimate album yet, born of profound personal loss and grief. This cinematic portrait observes the most private corners of Sara’s creative process, as well as her personal life. What unfolds in front of the camera is the incredibly raw experience of mining one’s own pain to create art—and the hope that carries an artist forward. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Shorts: Drawing Lines
The Life of the Party | Meg Griffiths, Scott Faris
Women Laughing | Kathleen Hughes, Liza Donnelly
9/24/2026 | 07:00 PM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
Uniting two midlength documentaries about women challenging boundaries, Drawing Lines explores reinvention, and what happens when women draw lines of their own. From three Texan leaders navigating political divisions to the history of The New Yorker’s cartoonists, these films consider who gets to shape the conversation. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Sincerely, Ric
Jesse Carfield | 2025 | United States
9/26/2026 | 11:30 AM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
In the 1970s and 1980s, Ric Routledge transformed the dog-show world, then walked away without explanation. After his death in 2017, a family friend discovered a storage unit filled with videotapes, cassette interviews, photographs, postcards, and an unpublished autobiographical novel. That friend’s son, director Jesse Carfield, re-assembled this treasure trove into Sincerely, Ric, using Ric’s ephemera to form the shape of a life lived between public ambition and private disappearance, asking what remains when someone documents everything except the ending. This program will be followed by a filmmaker Q&A.

Soul Patrol
J.M. Harper | 2026 | United States
9/26/2026 | 02:00 PM | Oriental Theatre (Herzfeld Cinema)
Can reckoning with the past bring peace to those who lived it? The Vietnam War’s first Black special operations team reunites to tell their story. Using a combination of reenactments, vintage photography, and personal reflections, J.M. Harper’s Soul Patrol provides a rich perspective on both the Vietnam War and its collision with racial injustice, uncovering a hidden chapter of American military history in this winner of the US Documentary Competition Directing Award at Sundance 2026.

The Endless Frontier
Marilyn Ness | 2026 | United States
9/27/2026 | 11:00 AM | Oriental Theatre (Abele Cinema)
The Endless Frontier follows three laboratories from neurorobotics in Utah to immunology in New Jersey to ocean science in the South Pacific. These scientists’ research underpins the medicines, technologies, and environmental knowledge that shape everyday life. This film is an intimate, urgent portrait of scientists working to solve some of the most pressing challenges of our time, while revealing the growing threat to the American research engine and what is at stake for us all if it falters.

The Hockey Player
Jacqueline Doorey | 2026 | United States
9/27/2026 | 04:00 PM | Downer Theatre (North Cinema)
Attention Heated Rivalry devotées! Shot over half a decade, The Hockey Player follows Canadian-born defenseman (and former Milwaukee Admiral) Luke Prokop as he makes history as the first professional athlete under NHL contract to come out as gay. Raised in an often homophobic culture, Luke navigates the pressures of professional sports, the absence of LGBTQ+ role models on the ice, and the changing landscape of a sport enjoying a newfound cultural moment.