Subscribe now

Every Friday on “Point Taken,” the hosts invite a voice from the left and a voice from the right to discuss the news of the week. Usually that’s Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki and Republican strategist Bill McCoshen. With Zepecki and co-host Steve Scaffidi out this week, I joined the show to talk with Kristin Brey and Bill McCoshen about the blue wave, a new era in state politics, if reality has set in for Republicans yet, what’s next for Act 10, whether Chuck Schumer should be Senate Majority Leader, and much more.

Listen or watch the full show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube, embedded below.

PLUS: We are currently having a 30% OFF SUBSCRIPTION SALE!!

Details here:

Subscribe here:

Get 30% off for 1 year

Let’s keep the recombobulation going into 2027, folks.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

It has been quite the year at The Recombobulation Area, covering the remarkable, fork-in-the-road 2026 election that has now resulted in a victory for David Crowley in the race for governor, and the first Democratic-controlled legislature in 16 years.

We kicked the year off hosting the first candidate forum in the Democratic primary, and have been with you for every twist and turn along the way — and there sure were a whole lot of those! — all the way through the remarkable Nov. 3 Election Night, where Democrats won a trifecta — control of the Senate, Assembly and governorship — for the first time in a generation. With feature stories and in-depth previews and commentary and podcasts and poll analysis and breaking news and interviews and so much more, this has been a standout year to be covering the ever-discombobulating politics in the great state of Wisconsin.

Here at The Recombobulation Area, we’ve had our own share of change in 2026, too. This publication returned to independent ownership in early July, and have seen tremendous growth in new subscribers, both free and paid, along with significant increases in readership, reach, influence and more.

But now, as the dust begins to settle — and our post-election “takeaways” column has been published — we’re doing some recombobulating of our own. That means taking stock of what we’ve been able to do these past few months, and planning ahead for covering the Democratic trifecta and this new era in state politics (that sure is fun to say!).

We want you to be part of this next chapter, too. So, we’re offering a special “TRIFECTA SALE” for 30% off.

Get 30% off for 1 year

Click the button above, or go to…

therecombobulationarea.com/TRIFECTA

… to subscribe at this special discount rate.

This sale will be active from today (Nov. 12) through Monday, Nov. 16. Any link to subscribe will take you directly to this 30% off subscription offer.

Subscribe now

Give a gift subscription

As Congressman Mark Pocan recently said on his podcast, The Recombobulation Area is “one of the very best places to find out what’s happening in Wisconsin politics.”

With all of the change to come after this year’s election, there is going to be a whole lot happening in Wisconsin politics in the coming months. Some of it might be pretty discombobulating. So, you’re going to want to stay in the know —and stay recombobulated — by becoming a paid subscriber.

The Recombobulation Area doesn’t rely on corporate chains or dark money or social media clickbait or any of that nonsense. Our equation is pretty simple. We are powered by reader subscriptions. The more of you who subscribe, the more we can do.

We want to be doing more into 2027 and beyond. But we can’t do that without your support.

Subscribe with this special offer today — and let’s keep recombobulating.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

This is the free, NO PAYWALL version of The Recombobulation Area’s big post-election deep-dive column.

This column features a standalone article for each individual “takeaway,” conveniently rounded up here in one place, with shareable links for each. The full version for subscribers was published Saturday, Nov. 7.

Be the first to get every new column, podcast and feature story. Subscribe.

Subscribe now

On the morning of Election Day, I was reaching out to a number of people in Democratic political circles, checking in to see what expectations might be on races for everything from the gubernatorial election to the hundreds of races happening downballot.

One of those people was Katie Rosenberg, a Marathon County Board member and the former mayor of Wausau, a city where a closely-contested Assembly race was taking place. In the 2024 election, the 85th was the only district in the state won by both Donald Trump and Tammy Baldwin, with a Republican incumbent who had outrun the top of the ticket by several points. This race was looking like a true toss-up.

But when I checked in with Rosenberg, she said she was “secretly very optimistic” about the race in the 85th, about Democratic challenger John Kroll’s odds to flip the district, and about Democrats’ chances in Wisconsin overall.

It took me a while to get there myself, but that’s how I was feeling going into this final week, too — “secretly very optimistic.” I had crunched the numbers, spent time on the road, analyzed the polls, examined the national environment, looked at the history, and broke down the candidates. In the end, everything was coming up Democrats. It was just hard to believe it was actually happening. As someone who believes in things like sports jinxes — did the Brewers win because of the hat and shirt combination I wore for every game? Who’s to say, really? — I was afraid to say it out loud.

Because over the last decade, this party has been burned so many times. After the shock of 2016 to the jolt of 2024, any Democratic election anxiety is not unwarranted. And in Wisconsin, we’re so used to razor-thin margins that anything beyond that seemed unlikely.

The evening before Election Day, I attended David Crowley’s final event of the campaign, at the Laborers Union / AFL-CIO hall on Milwaukee’s blue-collar northwest side.

Sometimes, these final campaign events can be telling. In 2024, Tim Walz held a rally at Wisconsin State Fair Park on Nov. 4, 2024, and the energy at the event just felt completely zapped, compared to previous events. Staffers were beyond exhausted and supporters seemed like they were just going through the motions. This did not portend well for what was to come. Then, there was the night before the August primary where David Crowley held a rally at The Cooperage in Milwaukee with Gov. Tony Evers and Congresswoman Gwen Moore. There, the vibe in the room was a sort of caution-to-the-wind optimism, where Crowley and his supporters seemed more than hopeful that a stunning comeback could actually happen, but not so optimistic that they were actually expecting to win — they just knew they had some sort of a shot.

At the union hall on Monday evening, the energy in the room before Godlewski and Crowley would speak was … calm. It almost seemed too calm. It was optimistic, yes, but quietly so. That would ramp up, of course, once the candidates took the stage.

Kent Miller of LIUNA kicked off the rally, Godlewski spoke next, then Crowley delivered a fired-up stump speech to union supporters. His voice was a bit scratchy — from the Brewers victory parade that he rode in just days before, he said — but he seemed confident and energized. I had a couple minutes to talk with Crowley and Godlewski after the speech and they were relaxed and were cracking jokes. A tightly-wound, anxiety-riddled, overcome-with-exhaustion Democratic campaign that’s been the norm post-16, this was not. They were ready to win.

As results were reported just over 24 hours later, that confident calm and secret optimism was entirely justified, as Democrats had their best night in Wisconsin in nearly two decades.

This was a blue tsunami. A generational wipeout. The biggest midterm wave since Watergate. The long-sought repudiation of Donald Trump and MAGA. It finally happened.

But for Wisconsin, there’s so much more to these results beyond the national environment. This was a fork-in-the-road election that was years and years in the making, and these realignment-level results and the stakes of what these results mean for Wisconsin requires a closer look.

So, as per tradition, we’re diving into the details, the narratives, and all of the after-the-election analysis we can provide, with this “8 Takeaways” column.

Let’s recombobulate.

Paid subscribers who support The Recombobulation Area had first access to this full column when it was published on Saturday, Nov. 7. This post-election takeaways column is now available to all, with each “takeaway” as an easily shareable standalone article.

Share

1. At long last, Democrats flip the Wisconsin State Legislature

After 16 years of Republican control, Democrats flipped both the Senate and Assembly. They’l have an 18-15 majority in the Senate and a 53-46 majority in the Assembly.

2. The first post-Gerrymander election results in a Democratic trifecta

Wisconsin’s state legislative maps were gerrymandered for 12 years, giving Republicans outsized control in state politics. But in the first election fully under new maps, Democrats won big.

3. Between Crowley’s election and the Brewers winning the World Series, it was an all-time week for Milwaukee

The Brewers won their first World Series, and a week later, Milwaukee sent one of its own to the governor’s mansion -- with some of the biggest numbers for any candidate in recent history.

4. What does David Crowley’s winning coalition look like?

David Crowley won by the biggest margin of any gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin since 1998. How did he do it? What were the key regions of the state that helped deliver this victory?

5. Let Her Cooke: Rebecca Cooke flips Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District

She outran the top of the ticket in 2024, and finally defeated Derrick Van Orden in this western Wisconsin district, flipping several key counties and shrinking margins in others.

6. Mitchell Berman wins in a stunner

In the 1st Congressional District, Mitchell Berman upset Republican incumbent Bryan Steil in a race few saw coming.

7. Wisconsin’s Hispanic voters shift to Democrats in a big way

Some of the biggest shifts of any demographic group came among Hispanic voters. JoCasta Zamarripa, who won the race for Secretary of State, was a big part of Latino outreach statewide.

8. Crowley makes history

“I didn’t run to be the first black governor. I didn’t run to make history.”

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

David Crowley has made history as Wisconsin’s first Black governor. He was asked about this at his first press conference as Governor-elect. Here’s what he said:

“I didn’t run to be the first black governor. I didn’t run to make history. If anything, I want to make child poverty history. I want to make income inequality history. I want every young kid, no matter what ZIP code that they live in or what their last name they may have or a kid who may be facing eviction, I want them to dream and understand that they too can work hard, be kind and build relationships where you may be elected to move into the governor’s residence as I am. And while I understand the historical nature, my job is making sure we deliver for the people. People have been hurting. They’ve been suffering. They don’t feel like there’s an end in sight when it comes down to prosperity and being able to keep a little bit more money in their pocketbooks and being able to save for a vacation. My focus is on them, whether you live in an urban community like Milwaukee or whether you live in a farm community or rural community like Kewaunee or in Wausau. We’ve got to deliver for the Wisconsin folks who call this state home because they’ve been hurting so much. This was not about making history. This is about making sure we can move forward just like our state motto says.”

For many reasons, Crowley will bring a perspective to the governor’s office like no one who has ever held the role before. He is a groundbreaking leader, making history here in this election. Like he said, he didn’t run to make history, but this sure is something that is going to resonate for people across generations.

His personal story is an incredible one, too, and he made mention of this in his victory speech.

“A boy who grew up facing eviction will now live in the governor’s residence,” he said.

Perhaps the goal might not be to make history, as Crowley himself said, but that doesn’t make this history any less important. This is something that people will look back on as a momentous achievement in Wisconsin’s history. What a remarkable Milwaukee story — one that will now be told for generations to come.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.

One of the big takeaways from the election nationally was how much of a shift there was among Hispanic voters from 2024. This helped drive James Talarico’s victory in Texas, where about 70% of Hispanic voters backed the Democrat. In the House, Democrats won every district that touches the U.S. -Mexico border.

While Wisconsin’s Hispanic population is not as large as some of the states that saw some of these especially big shifts, it is now the largest minority group in Wisconsin, making up nearly 9% of the population.

As John D. Johnson notes here, the three Assembly districts with the most Latino voters were the ones to swing most from Trump to Crowley. Milwaukee’s majority-Hispanic south side is where some of the biggest swings occurred, particularly in the 8th and 9th districts, which swung for Crowley by 26 points. In the 8th, Democrat Ismael Luna defeated incumbent Sylvia Ortiz-Velez in the August primary, and went on to win by a more than 71% margin. In the 9th, Democratic incumbent Priscilla Prado won by a 61% margin — a 20-point improvement from just two years ago.

Notably, on the statewide ballot was JoCasta Zamarripa, a former state representative and current Milwaukee alderperson who represents the city’s south side, running for Secretary of State. Zamarripa’s campaign tells The Recombobulation Area that she put significant resources toward GOTV efforts among Latino voters, including $150,000 on voter outreach statewide.

In voter trend data from The New York Times, Hispanic voters in Wisconsin saw the biggest shifts statewide, toward Democrats by 32 points, with Crowley winning more than 73% of this group of voters. Any durable coalition for Democrats moving forward needs to include a strong share of Hispanic voters.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.

About a month ago, I hosted a podcast with Congressman Mark Pocan where he was talking about how he thought the 1st Congressional District was flippable, and Republican incumbent Bryan Steil was vulnerable.

While this seemed possible, it also seemed unlikely. Steil had outrun the top of the ticket in several elections, including in 2024, when he won by a double-digit margin in a district Trump won by 4%. Steil was also a fairly prolific fundraiser, so it seemed that if he did face a challenge, he’d have the resources to counter it. Plus, he was facing a candidate in Mitchell Berman who, while an accomplished individual as an ER nurse, was running as a first-time candidate, and that can be challenging.

But Berman surprised everybody en route to a four-point victory over Steil. Berman did well in Kenosha County, and perhaps his success there was part of why Crowley was able to flip the county in the statewide race, too. He also did well in Rock County, one of the other big movers of the election.

Berman defeating Steil proved to be the high-water mark of the crest of the blue wave in Wisconsin, which now has a 4-4 congressional delegation after two terms with a 6-2 Republican advantage.

Steil also seemed like the most likely Republican candidate to be running for U.S. Senate in 2028. Not so more.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.

Rebecca Cooke is a special candidate. Having an opportunity to tag along with her and her campaign for a day in the 3rd Congressional District really made that all the more clear. In talking to her, she was not just emerging as the right candidate at the right time, in her goals to build a more “durable coalition” for Democrats, I really think she is tapping into something bigger than any one race (read that feature story here).

But the results of this race are undeniably impressive. She defeated Derrick Van Orden by a 6.6% margin.

Cooke outran the top of the ticket in 2024, losing by less than 3% when Trump won by 8%. In 2026, every county in the district shifted to the left, almost all by double-digits. The biggest shift came in Crawford County, where I was with Cooke when she attended a lutefisk dinner in a church basement in a rural part of the district. She went everywhere to meet people where they are in this campaign, and it showed. Crawford County shifted by 17 points from 2024.

Cooke also won in Vernon County and Richland County, each of which Van Orden had won in both of his winning races. She won both La Crosse (+25) and Eau Claire (+26) counties by big margins. She narrowed the margin in Grant County to just 3% after it had gone for Van Orden by 14% just two years ago.

This is a really impressive electoral performance for a very impressive candidate. I’m excited to see what she does in Congress.

Share The Recombobulation Area

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.

Milwaukee wasn’t the only part of the state where voters shifted toward Crowley. He won more counties than Tony Evers did in 2022, and saw many huge shifts in swingy parts of the state from 2024.

Some of these shifts were ones we anticipated. In the August primary, Crowley did especially well in the WOW counties and in southeastern Wisconsin, suggesting he might do well there in the general election, too, especially with Tiffany not being from southeastern Wisconsin, like so many of his Republican predecessors in statewide races.

And indeed, the suburban shift continued, with Crowley becoming the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate in modern history to win more than 40% of the vote in Waukesha County — with room to spare, at 42.4%. He also narrowed margins in Ozaukee County, trailing Tiffany by just 6% there in a county that Tim Michels won by 11% in 2022 and Scott Walker won by more than 40% in 2014.

Share

Two of the counties that Crowley won but Evers didn’t are also in southeastern Wisconsin — Racine and Kenosha. In Racine, Crowley is the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win more votes than the Republican since 2002. Crowley also won in Kenosha, which had gone for Trump all three times he was on the ballot.

But perhaps the most significant shifts came in two of the swingier parts of the state (which just so happen to be places we’ve highlighted at The Recombobulation Area): 1) the Fox Valley and Green Bay, and 2) western Wisconsin and the Driftless region.

Part of the realignment tradeoff for Republicans in the Trump era has been that, while they’re losing some support in the suburbs, they’re gaining in parts of the state with a larger share of white working class voters. The Obama-Trump realignment of the 2010s made places like the Driftless and the Fox Valley more Republican-leaning regions. But of the counties that shifted the most from 2024 to 2026, many of them are in those ever-shifting regions.

In the Fox Valley and northeastern Wisconsin, Winnebago, Outagamie and Brown counties all shifted by double-digit margins toward Democrats. Crowley won in Winnebago and Brown. A Democratic gubernatorial candidate had not won Winnebago since 2006, and not in Brown since 1982.

Share The Recombobulation Area

In western Wisconsin, it wasn’t just a downballot surge that turned the Driftless blue; Crowley did well there, too — holding some of Evers’ strong margins in some parts of the state, expanding in others. Two of the more populous counties were the biggest movers, with La Crosse County going for Crowley by a 22-point margin, and Eau Claire County by a 24-point margin. For each, that’s the first time a Democratic candidate carried these counties by a more than 20-point margin — and the best showing for any gubernatorial candidate in the 21st Century. This is significant for La Crosse, in particular, as this was one of the parts of the state that shifted the most toward Trump in 2024.

And, of course, Dane County came through for Crowley with 80% of voters going for the Democratic candidate — a slightly higher share than either of Tony Evers’ wins.

This mix is a recipe for dominance in Wisconsin elections: Maintain the Dane County turnout and margin powerhouse, run up the margins in Milwaukee, continue closing that gap in Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, lose by less in rural regions, and reverse trends and expand share in swingy areas like the Fox Valley and western Wisconsin. If Crowley and Democrats can maintain this kind of coalition, that is going to be an incredibly potent electoral mix.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.

In a span of a single week, Milwaukee’s baseball team won its first ever World Series, the city celebrated with 750,000 people at the victory parade in the largest ever event in state history, and voters sent one of Milwaukee’s own to be Wisconsin’s next governor.

Pretty good week for Milwaukee!

It’s always wonderful to see this spectacular city get its moment to shine. Milwaukee puts up with so much — and a lot of what it faces is entirely unfair — and so to see the city erupt in joy during the Milwaukee Brewers postseason run and World Series victory has been just remarkable.

It turned out not to be such a good time to be running a campaign based on Milwaukee-bashing when the city was looking like the happiest place in the world.

I will always loathe politicians who seek to build their profile or run campaigns based on the demonization of the state’s largest, most diverse city. Milwaukee has its problems just like any major city does, but so much of the criticism it faces is misguided and unfair. I grew up in the Waukesha County suburbs and know this dynamic well, and now having lived in the city for more than 15 years, I’ve seen time and time again just how wrong so much of that insultingly misguided rhetoric is. For Tom Tiffany to make Milwaukee-bashing essentially the cornerstone of the final stretch of his campaign is just so unbelievably toxic, and exactly the type of politics we need to be getting away from.

Thankfully, the voters saw it for what it was, no place more so than in Milwaukee County, which saw the single biggest shift toward Democrats of any of Wisconsin’s 72 counties. Crowley won 76% of the vote in Milwaukee County, the best mark of any gubernatorial candidate this century, and better than any Milwaukee County result that even Barack Obama ever achieved.

In the city of Milwaukee, Crowley received an astonishing 85.1% of the vote — the best mark in the city for any candidate this century. That’s higher than Barack Obama (79% in ‘08), higher than Herb Kohl (81% in ‘06). These are eye-popping numbers.

Tiffany, on the other hand, got the lowest vote share in Milwaukee County of any statewide candidate in 20 years, and the lowest percentage in the city in modern history. Turns out running a decidedly anti-Milwaukee campaign had political consequences.

David Crowley now becomes the first governor from Milwaukee in decades, and the first Milwaukee Democrat to be elected governor in more than a century, when George Peck was elected in 1890.

Crowley often mentions how he is proud to be from the city of Milwaukee. That’s important. He should be proud to be from this incredible city. And in the annals of history, this will go down as one of the most remarkable weeks Milwaukee has ever seen.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled previous state legislative maps to be unconstitutional on Dec. 22, 2023, and Tony Evers signed new maps into law on Feb. 19, 2024, but The Gerrymander that warped Wisconsin politics for more than a decade wasn’t fully in our rear view mirror until the 2026 election.

While the Assembly competed on new maps in 2024, with Republicans winning a fair-and-square majority, only half of the Senate was up that year, because state senators serve four-year terms. That means this was the first fully post-Gerrymander election, and it sure is fitting that the first result on these fully fairer maps is a Democratic trifecta.

This proves once again that the outsized majorities that Republicans enjoyed from 2012 to 2024 were not earned — they were rigged. The GOP used their wave election in 2010 to try to cement permanent one-party rule, by drawing the maps so egregiously tilted in their favor that even when Democrats won statewide races and had more votes in the Assembly, Republicans could still maintain majorities. For that 12-year stretch, Republicans held 60 or more seats each year in the Assembly. In 2024, that number shrank to 54, and two years later, to 46.

Everything Republicans were able to do for those 12 years should have an asterisk attached to it. What they were able to do was not representative of the actual voters, of the actual people of Wisconsin.

One of the other big winners from Tuesday’s election was democracy itself. Many of Republicans’ attempts to gerrymander congressional seats backfired, like in Texas, where Donald Trump encouraged Gov. Greg Abbott to go ahead with a mid-decade redistricting, only to lose seats and see Abbott himself lose, too. Every election denier running for governor in a swing state lost, and this time, they’re not contesting their massive losses. Astronomical levels of spending, like Elon Musk spending half a billion dollars in Texas and the Uihleins spending what might be more than $100 million in Wisconsin alone, tested democracy’s resolve.

As our friend Kristin Brey noted on “Point Taken,” the “shenanigans” and fearmongering surrounding this election — on mail-in voting, on ICE at the polls, various attempts at election-meddling, etc. — were overcome by “the voice of the people” and that “voters still have a limit for what they will put up with, and because we still live in a democracy, we have the power of the vote to overcome so much money and still have a voice.”

As true here in Wisconsin as it is anywhere, and for Republicans bemoaning the end of their 16-year majority, they should know that if they were competing on a fair playing field, that never would have lasted as long as it did.

This new Democratic trifecta — that sure is fun to type, isn’t it? — has many things to address after years of being shut out of even the most basic conversations in state government, but on the list should be issues relating to democracy — closing the Walker loophole that allows the egregious campaign funding we’ve seen, expanding voting access, finally passing early count for absentee ballot processing, and passing some form of independent redistricting. Structural changes need to happen to prevent the kind of small-d democracy backslide that we saw in Wisconsin under Republican rule, and to better put the people at the forefront of our politics — as it should be.

But let the record show that in the first fully post-Gerrymander election in the state legislature, Democrats delivered a trifecta.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

This article was part of the extended column, “8 Takeaways from the 2026 Election in Wisconsin,” which was first available for paid subscribers on Nov. 7.

Sixteen years is a long time.

Republicans have controlled the Wisconsin State Legislature for 16 years. The last fork-in-the-road election for the state came in 2010, when Republicans had their own wave election, forever altering the trajectory of this great state — for the worse. With this election, Democrats have finally slammed the door shut on this detestable era.

It took so much from so many for so long, but Democrats finally delivered a new majority.

We spend so much time and attention on elections in the Wisconsin State Legislature here at The Recombobulation Area because of how enormously consequential it is in Wisconsin. You could make the argument that this is the most powerful brand of government in the state. This is what sets policy, passes budgets, and passes bills. There was a reason so many called Tony Evers a great “goalie”; it’s because with a GOP-controlled legislature, he could not really advance an agenda of his own — certainly not with the extreme and obstructionist group of Republicans running things.

But now, Crowley will have the opportunity to do what Evers did not — play some offense. In an interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Greta Neubauer, the Assembly Speaker-in-waiting, said, “We’re going to be ambitious. We’ve been waiting a long time for this moment…There is a lot to do, and we are going to get started right away.”

We’ll certainly be taking a closer look at the details of what exactly that means in the coming months, but for now, let’s take a closer look at the election results — because they are remarkable.

In the Senate, Democrats needed to pick up just two seats in order to win control of the chamber, and were targeting three. They flipped all three — all by significant margins.

In two open seats in southeastern Wisconsin, each of the Democratic candidates won by double-digit margins. In District 5, Robyn Vining won by a 14-point margin, and in District 21, Trevor Jung won by 13.4%. In District 17, in the southwestern corner of the state in the ever-swingy Driftless region, Jenna Jacobson unseated longtime Republican incumbent Howard Marklein, winning by 7.6%.

Senate Dems even came within striking distance of flipping a district that Trump won by nearly 14 points in 2024, where Democrat Charly Ray came within less than six points of defeating Republican Erik Severson in the open 25th in the far northeast corner of the state.

After the 2022 election, Republicans had a two-third supermajority in the state Senate. But in 2024, despite it being a more red-leaning year, Democrats flipped four seats, putting themselves in range to take the majority this year. They succeeded — and then some. In two years and in eight contested races, Senate Democrats are undefeated.

In the Assembly, flipping the chamber always seemed like a tougher task. There were more seats needed to flip, and unlike the Senate, fewer incumbents were resigning at the end of their terms. Several state representatives — Todd Novak, Patrick Snyder, Shannon Zimmerman, Bob Donovan — had outrun the top of the ticket many times before.

In our initial preview of the State Assembly, we listed three as “Toss Up” (in Harris-won districts) and three as “Lean R” (in Trump-won districts), each with a Republican incumbent seeking re-election. The two Republican-held open seats — District 21, in southeastern Milwaukee County, and District 53, in Neenah/Menasha — were in our “Lean D” category, since incumbency would not be a factor there.

So, those were the eight seats in play — the eight potential pick-ups for Democrats, all at varying degrees of difficulty. In the end, Assembly Democrats swept each of these races — a remarkable achievement.

And in the end, none of them even really came down to the wire. Some of them were blowouts. Becky Nichols flipped the 53rd by a nearly 16-point margin. Ben Gruber finally took down Todd Novak, winning by almost 11%. Ben Brist beat Bob Donovan by more than 12%. Brandy Tollefson won the 88th by 8.6%. John Kroll won the 85th by 8.2%. Jeremiah Fredrickson won the 92nd by 6.8%. Kevin Knoke won the 30th by 6%. And in the 21st — in what might be the most insane result of the night in the Assembly — Dan Bukiewicz, the Democratic mayor of Oak Creek, won a Republican-held seat by a whopping 25-point margin.

The closer races came in blue-trending suburban districts in southeastern Wisconsin, like the 82nd in Waukesha, which saw the closest result of the night with Republican Bryson Reyes winning by just 2.4%, and in the 63rd, where Democrat Eddie Phanichkul (who joined our Election Night livestream!) came within 7% of Republican Robert Wittke in Racine County and the city of Franklin, a district that has gone for Republicans by more than 12% in every statewide race this decade.

Across the board, it was just an incredibly impressive showing for Assembly Democrats.

Greta Neubauer, who is now in line to be the next Assembly Speaker, talked about a piece of their recruitment strategy in some of these especially competitive races on a recent podcast with The Recombobulation Area. They looked for people who are “deeply rooted” in their communities and “known” to people in their districts. This has meant “educators and coaches, small business owners, public safety, local electeds,” said Neubauer.

This was in part designed to help combat the inevitable campaign attack ads, she said. The megadonor funding at the top of the ticket for Tom Tiffany was also present downballot, and the type of misleading or outright fictitious ads that the super PACs from Diane Hendricks and the Uihleins were putting out.

“We know that in communities where our candidates are well-known, misinformation doesn’t spread in the same way,” she said. “When I was on doors for Joe (Sheehan) two years ago, we had people say, they’re running these ads against Joe, but I already know Joe and that’s not who he is. And that’s the same thing we’re seeing now with Jeremiah Fredrickson, who owns a fish farm, or Kevin Knoke, who was an educator for 30 years. People just do not believe the ads they’re seeing because they actually have a reference point already on these candidates.”

This turned out to be an effective strategy, en route to winning a majority for only the second time in 32 years, and, with 53 seats, the Assembly’s largest Democratic majority since 1992.

See more of The Recombobulation Area’s election coverage here:

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

Congressman Mark Pocan of Wisconsin’s 2nd District hosts a podcast called “With Liberty and Justice for Some,” which features a variety of guests on state and national politics.

This week, Dan Shafer joined the show to talk about the results of the 2026 midterm election in Wisconsin, David Crowley’s victory, Democrats flipping the state legislature, and much more.

Pocan called The Recombobulation Area “one of the very best places to find out what’s happening in Wisconsin politics.”

Listen here for our conversation on the election and what’s ahead.

See more recent podcasts, analysis and commentary here:

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

Less than a week after the election, Lieutenant Governor-elect Sarah Godlewski joins us at The Recombobulation Area — on her birthday, no less!

Godlewski is the former State Treasurer, the current Secretary of State, and will soon be Wisconsin’s next Lieutenant Governor.

We talked about Election Night, and an unexpectedly early call in the governor’s race. We talked about Democrats flipping the legislature — and sharing the stage with soon-to-be Senate Majority Leader Dianne Hesselbein and soon-to-be Assembly Speaker Greta Neubauer at their election night party in Milwaukee — and if that gives them a “mandate” in Wisconsin.

She also talked about generational change, and the rise of the millennials in Wisconsin politics.

Godlewski also looked ahead to the transition period, which ramps up this week, and about what Godlewski plans to do as Lieutenant Governor and the role she’ll play in this administration.

Finally, we went rapid-fire through a host of issues, like public education funding, child care, marijuana legalization, Act 10, Medicaid expansion, redistricting, and more.

And with an eye on the bigger picture, Godlewski talked about what she referred to as the “Wisconsin promise,” saying, “If you work hard, you play by the rules, you should be able to buy a home, raise a family, and retire with dignity.”

For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see below:

• 00:00:14: Welcome and introduction of Lt. Governor-elect Sarah Godlewski

• 01:02: Birthday wishes and Wisconsin Democrats’ early-November birthdays

• 02:00: Has it sunk in yet? Getting used to “Lieutenant” ahead of the January 4th swearing-in

• 03:46: Election night: the early call and the Diet Cokes

• 06:03: Early calls in Wisconsin and national results

• 07:25: “We cannot be bought”: winning while outspent

• 08:00: What the results mean: a historic statewide ticket and a call for change

• 08:52: The millennial wave: a new generation takes the reins

• 11:47: The transition begins: building a team that represents the whole state

• 13:16: Working with the legislature in a Democratic trifecta

• 16:03: Do they have a mandate? The 8.2% margin and the legislative flips

• 18:48: Down-ballot standouts: Jeremiah Fredrickson and Becky Nichols

• 20:03: Defining the lieutenant governor role: the Crowley-Godlewski administration

• 21:48: Advice for the incoming Secretary of State and State Treasurer

• 22:36: Choosing a policy focus as Lt. Governor

• 23:35: Balancing bold ambitions with stalled, majority-supported priorities

• 26:11: Rapid fire: public school funding and the funding formula

• 26:44: Rapid fire: child care

• 27:30: Rapid fire: marijuana legalization and the hemp deadline

• 29:04: Rapid fire: Act 10 and rebuilding the middle class

• 29:54: Rapid fire: redistricting and fair maps

• 30:43: Rapid fire: Medicaid and BadgerCare expansion

• 31:22: Affordability and housing

• 32:19: Closing thoughts and thanks to Wisconsin voters

Watch this episode on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

For audio-only listeners, you can find The Recombobulation Area podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Here’s this episode, embedded below:

See more of our coverage of the 2026 election in Wisconsin here:

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Get more from Dan Shafer in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

Subscribe now

This is The Recombobulation Area’s big post-election deep-dive column. See previous versions from the August 2026 primary, the 2025 Spring Election, 2024 presidential election, 2024 partisan primary, 2024 Spring Election, and 2022 midterm elections.

This full column will be available first for paid subscribers only.

Support independent journalism at The Recombobulation Area and subscribe:

Subscribe now

On the morning of Election Day, I was reaching out to a number of people in Democratic political circles, checking in to see what expectations might be on races for everything from the gubernatorial election to the hundreds of races happening downballot.

One of those people was Katie Rosenberg, a Marathon County Board member and the former mayor of Wausau, a city where a closely-contested Assembly race was taking place. In the 2024 election, the 85th was the only district in the state won by both Donald Trump and Tammy Baldwin, with a Republican incumbent who had outrun the top of the ticket by several points. This race was looking like a true toss-up.

But when I checked in with Rosenberg, she said she was “secretly very optimistic” about the race in the 85th, about Democratic challenger John Kroll’s odds to flip the district, and about Democrats’ chances in Wisconsin overall.

It took me a while to get there myself, but that’s how I was feeling going into this final week, too — “secretly very optimistic.” I had crunched the numbers, spent time on the road, analyzed the polls, examined the national environment, looked at the history, and broke down the candidates. In the end, everything was coming up Democrats. It was just hard to believe it was actually happening. As someone who believes in things like sports jinxes — did the Brewers win because of the hat and shirt combination I wore for every game? Who’s to say, really? — I was afraid to say it out loud.

Because over the last decade, this party has been burned so many times. After the shock of 2016 to the jolt of 2024, any Democratic election anxiety is not unwarranted. And in Wisconsin, we’re so used to razor-thin margins that anything beyond that seemed unlikely.

The evening before Election Day, I attended David Crowley’s final event of the campaign, at the Laborers Union / AFL-CIO hall on Milwaukee’s blue-collar northwest side.

Sometimes, these final campaign events can be telling. In 2024, Tim Walz held a rally at Wisconsin State Fair Park on Nov. 4, 2024, and the energy at the event just felt completely zapped, compared to previous events. Staffers were beyond exhausted and supporters seemed like they were just going through the motions. This did not portend well for what was to come. Then, there was the night before the August primary where David Crowley held a rally at The Cooperage in Milwaukee with Gov. Tony Evers and Congresswoman Gwen Moore. There, the vibe in the room was a sort of caution-to-the-wind optimism, where Crowley and his supporters seemed more than hopeful that a stunning comeback could actually happen, but not so optimistic that they were actually expecting to win — they just knew they had some sort of a shot.

At the union hall on Monday evening, the energy in the room before Godlewski and Crowley would speak was … calm. It almost seemed too calm. It was optimistic, yes, but quietly so. That would ramp up, of course, once the candidates took the stage.

Kent Miller of LIUNA kicked off the rally, Godlewski spoke next, then Crowley delivered a fired-up stump speech to union supporters. His voice was a bit scratchy — from the Brewers victory parade that he rode in just days before, he said — but he seemed confident and energized. I had a couple minutes to talk with Crowley and Godlewski after the speech and they were relaxed and were cracking jokes. A tightly-wound, anxiety-riddled, overcome-with-exhaustion Democratic campaign that’s been the norm post-16, this was not. They were ready to win.

As results were reported just over 24 hours later, that confident calm and secret optimism was entirely justified, as Democrats had their best night in Wisconsin in nearly two decades.

This was a blue tsunami. A generational wipeout. The biggest midterm wave since Watergate. The long-sought repudiation of Donald Trump and MAGA. It finally happened.

But for Wisconsin, there’s so much more to these results beyond the national environment. This was a fork-in-the-road election that was years and years in the making, and these realignment-level results and the stakes of what these results mean for Wisconsin requires a closer look.

So, as per tradition, we’re diving into the details, the narratives, and all of the after-the-election analysis we can provide, with this “8 Takeaways” column.

Let’s recombobulate.

This full column is available for paid subscribers.
Subscribe and support our work.

Subscribe now

Refer a friend

Give a gift subscription

Takeaways include:

• At long last, Democrats flip the Wisconsin State Legislature

• The first post-Gerrymander election results in a Democratic trifecta

• What a week for Milwaukee

• What does Crowley’s winning coalition look like?

• Let her Cooke

• Mitchell Berman wins in a stunner

• Wisconsin’s Hispanic voters shift to Democrats in a big way

• Crowley makes history

Share

We’ve been busy covering the election, from columns to new maps to a 3.5-hour Election Night livestream and much more, so in case you’ve missed anything from this week, here it is:

Read more

Subscribe now

There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down.

And this week, there’s obviously a whole lot to talk about because DAVID CROWLEY WON THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR AND DEMOCRATS FLIPPED THE STATE LEGISLATURE!

Along with talking about the remarkable results from Tuesday — Crowley’s 8.2% win, three-for-three flips in the Senate, eight-for-eight flips in the Assembly — we looked ahead to what might be in store for a Democratic trifecta.

This episode aired live on Motherhood for Good’s YouTube Channel on Friday, Nov. 6, at 11 a.m.

For a beat-by-beat breakdown of the episode, see below:

• 0:00 – Going Live and “Retired” Anchor Banter: Kreitlow trades flannel for island wear, with Brewers championship gear on the way

• 0:49 – Election Night in Milwaukee, Together at Last: The first in-person show, and the hunt for a bar after midnight

• 2:35 – Livestream Chaos and a Shoutout to Producer Chris: Tech troubles and thanks to the election-night crew

• 3:17 – Local Election Commentary as a New Media Model: Why the hosts think more local, loosely produced coverage is needed

• 4:36 – Real-Time Reactions: Kate’s reflexes versus Dan’s “need more data,” and an eight-for-eight Assembly night

• 6:07 – The Biggest Midterm Wave Since Watergate: Cook Political Report results and Republicans’ red-wave predictions

• 8:15 – How Did the Polls Do?: Marquette’s Crowley +7 versus the 8.2-point result

• 9:23 – Crowley Dominates Milwaukee County and City: 76% countywide and 85.1% in the city, ahead of Obama’s marks

• 11:59 – The Northern Wisconsin Map Problem: The “new Kansas” and where the shifts were smaller

• 13:44 – Fox Valley Flips: Crowley wins Brown and Winnebago counties

• 14:08 – Rural Messaging Gap: Gillett’s failed school referendum and the case for county-level organizing

• 15:25 – Young Men Swing Left: Shifts among men 18–44 in key Senate states

• 16:45 – Why Voters Moved: ICE, women’s health, health care, and gas prices, plus MAHA women as a possible opening for Democrats

• 18:23 – “Tired of the Assholery”: Republicans’ own postmortems and what they say about Trump

• 20:20 – Trump’s Record and the Republican Party’s Responsibility: Whether a fiscally conservative GOP can reemerge

• 21:36 – Republicans Aren’t Getting the Message: Ron Johnson’s reaction and “this isn’t just Trump”

• 24:22 – What Happens Now in the Legislature: Leadership elections and what Democrats can actually get done

• 25:34 – Kreitlow’s Watchlist for Democrats: Low-hanging fruit, the overreach trap on the minimum wage, and 2028 messaging

• 27:49 – Better Messaging: The Mamdani team’s social approach and bringing in storytellers

• 28:51 – Chorus and Creator-Driven Progressive Media: The influence of creators and a young campaign staff in Texas

• 31:24 – Crowley’s Budget Headline and the Need for Context: Misleading coverage and the role of independent journalists

• 32:48 – Delivering Results Voters Can Feel: The to-do list for Hesselbein, Neubauer, and the new trifecta

• 35:17 – Connect the Dots: Gas prices, tariffs, shovel-ready projects, and lead pipe remediation

• 37:23 – Eye-Popping Down-Ballot Results: Assembly flips, SD25, and the 25-point swing in AD21

• 40:27 – Republican Leadership Bails and the AI Slop Ads: Why attack ads may have backfired

• 41:51 – Will the Mega-Donors Keep Spending?: Musk, Uihlein, and Hendricks, and campaign finance reform

• 43:22 – The Blue Ribbon Commission Debate: Whether Crowley’s school funding commission is needed

• 46:33 – Crowley the Bridge Builder: Governing for all of Wisconsin versus moving fast

• 50:51 – Democratic Tensions and the Voucher Dilemma: Milwaukee Democrats versus the rest of the caucus

• 52:58 – “Wisconsin Is a Blue State”: Tommy Thompson’s quote and how gerrymandering weakened the GOP bench

• 56:12 – A 53-Seat Assembly Majority: The biggest Democratic majority since 1992

• 57:02 – Redrawing Congressional Maps: WI-1, WI-3, and the anti-competitive gerrymander case

• 59:35 – Structural Reforms: Walker loophole, early absentee counting, automatic registration, and nonpartisan redistricting

• 1:00:39 – Why Redistricting Reform Didn’t Happen Last Time: Kreitlow’s account of the 2009–10 trifecta

• 1:01:45 – Stevens Point Early Voting Lines: Three-hour waits for students

• 1:02:55 – What’s Next for the Group Chat: A short hiatus, budget listening sessions, and audience requests

• 1:04:23 – Content Plans and Sign-Off: Substacks, podcasts, budget explainers, and a goal of universal health care

If you missed our live Election Night broadcast from Tuesday, see here.

Watch this and every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel:

You can find every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and right here on Substack.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

In the 2026 midterm election, voters delivered a full-throated repudiation of Donald Trump and the MAGA agenda. The biggest blue wave in generations swept the country, with surprise victories in states like South Carolina and Mississippi and surprise margins of victory in places like Texas and Georgia.

The blue wave crested in Wisconsin, too, as Democrats flipped the Wisconsin State Legislature for the first time in 16 years, Rebecca Cooke ousted Derrick Van Orden, and once-longshot candidate Mitchell Berman defeated Bryan Steil.

And in Wisconsin’s statewide election for governor, David Crowley won by the largest margin of any Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate since Tommy Thompson was re-elected to a fourth term in 1998. Crowley’s more than eight-point blowout of Congressman Tom Tiffany exceeded even the eye-popping +7 number from the final Marquette poll of the 2026 cycle. It’s the largest margin of any statewide victory in a fall election since Tammy Baldwin’s re-election in the last blue wave year of 2018.

In the end, Crowley found himself on the winning side of some of the warring outside factors in the race: overwhelming levels of billionaire funding backing Tiffany and an increasingly anti-Trump national environment benefiting the Democrat.

But Crowley’s success in this race goes beyond the narratives that dominated headlines in this campaign. He proved to be the right candidate at the right time, the candidate at the top of the ticket who helped deliver this gargantuan statewide victory and the first Democratic trifecta since the 2008 election.

Read more

Subscribe now

In case you missed it, the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat was streaming live last night as the election results came in. For any initial reactions and reports from the evening, you can revisit the broadcast here:

It was a remarkable night for Democrats around the country, and in Wisconsin. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won the race for governor, defeating Congressman Tom Tiffany by a more than eight-point margin.

This is the largest margin of victory for a gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin in 20 years, and the largest statewide victory margin in a fall election in Wisconsin since Tammy Baldwin’s re-election in 2018.

He took the stage to deliver his victory speech in downtown Milwaukee with the same music that World Series MVP William Contreras used when he walked to the plate, following a speech from Sarah Godlewski, Wisconsin’s next Lieutenant Governor.

Along with Crowley’s overwhelming victory, Democrats flipped the State Senate and State Assembly and will control the Wisconsin State Legislature for the first time since the 2009-10 session. This will give Democrats trifecta control — the Senate, the Assembly, and the governorship — of state government.

In the Senate, Robyn Vining (SD5), Trevor Jung (SD21) and Jenna Jacobson (SD17) each flipped seats, with Vining and Jung each winning open races and Jacobson unseating Republican incumbent Howard Marklein.

With those three victories, Democrats will have an 18-15 majority in the Senate beginning in 2027. Dianne Hesselbein of Middleton will become the next Senate Majority Leader.

In the Assembly, Democrats flipped a whopping eight seats. In our legislative election preview, there were eight races we identified as the most likely potential pickups, and Democrats swept them all. Winners include: Dan Bukeiwicz (AD21), Kevin Knoke (AD30), Ben Gruber (AD51), Becky Nichols (AD53), Ben Brist (AD61), John Kroll (AD85), Brandy Tollefson (AD88), and Jeremiah Fredrickson (AD92).

With those eight victories, Democrats will have a 53-46 majority in the Assembly next year. Greta Neubauer of Racine will become the next Assembly Speaker.

Along with wins for governor and in the legislature, Democrats won every race for state constitutional offices on the ballot, with Josh Kaul winning re-election to a third term as Attorney General; JoCasta Zamarripa, a former state representative and current Milwaukee alderperson, winning the race for Secretary of State; and Yee Leng Xiong unseating Republican incumbent John Lieber in the race for State Treasurer.

Democrats also won the two competitive congressional races. In the 3rd District, Rebecca Cooke defeated Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden by a more than six-point margin, and in the 1st District, Mitchell Berman defeated Republican incumbent Bryan Steil by a four-point margin. Wisconsin’s congressional delegation will consist of four Republicans and four Democrats.

We will have more coverage of the 2026 election in the coming days, including our usual “10 takeaways” deep dive of the results. Stay tuned for more, and be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss a thing.

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

What a night. If you missed our live election night coverage from downtown Milwaukee, revisit the full show here.

David Crowley is going to be our next governor. A Democratic trifecta is happening. This was an exhilarating, triumphant Election Night, and you can relive all of it here.

Featuring these absolute legends: , and . With Dr. Chris Ford, special guests from UpNorthNews, WisDems Chair Devin Remiker, and more.

Live show produced and directed by Chris Haase.

For a beat-by-beat breakdown of the moments from the Election Night Live-stream, see here:

• (00:01:22) Welcome and Introductions: Pat Kreitlow, Kate Duffy, Dan Shafer, and Dr. Kristen Lyerly kick off the Wisconsin Politics group chat coverage.

• (00:03:16) What to Watch: Waukesha County (Crowley needs 40%+) and La Crosse are named as early bellwethers, along with the 3rd District race.

• (00:04:48) Trifecta Watch: Democrats need two Senate seats and five Assembly seats for their first trifecta in 16 years.

• (00:09:16) The Road to 2026: A look back at the Supreme Court flips, fair maps, and Evers’ wins that led to this moment.

• (00:10:40) A Historic Ticket: Crowley would be the first Black governor, and Zamarripa and Xiong would also make history in statewide offices.

• (00:18:11) Surprise Guest Devin Remiker: The state Democratic Party chair explains the “boiler room” and names Assembly District 30 as a key race.

• (00:34:07) Early Bellwether Signs: Sauk County shows Crowley ahead 52-48 with 61% reporting.

• (00:43:25) Waukesha Update: Tiffany falls below 60% in Waukesha County, a good sign for Crowley statewide.

• (00:49:58) Texas Called: VoteHub projects Talarico winning the Texas Senate race.

• (00:58:13) Annie Andrews Wins South Carolina: The Senate race is called, followed by Rob Sand in Iowa and Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia.

• (01:07:46) First Assembly Flip: Becky Nichols wins in Assembly District 53.

• (01:22:39) Senate Flips: Democrats claim victory in Senate Districts 5 and 21, flipping the state Senate.

• (01:23:44) Crowley Wins Governor: Decision Desk HQ projects David Crowley the winner of the Wisconsin governor’s race.

• (01:48:42) Rebecca Cooke Wins 3rd District: Reports emerge that Cooke has defeated Derek Van Orden.

• (02:19:04) Victory Speech Reports: Kate and Kristen return from the Crowley party with reports on his speech.

• (02:28:38) Trifecta Clinched: Democrats are projected to win the Assembly, completing the trifecta.

• (02:36:57) US Senate Flipped: Democrats reach 51 seats, with flips in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Ohio, and more.

• (02:48:20) Assembly Sweep: Democrats win all eight competitive Assembly races, projecting a 53-seat majority.

• (03:25:12) Pat’s Sign-Off: Pat Kreitlow makes a special announcement, thanks the team, and closes the broadcast.

Watch this episode on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here:

For audio-only listeners, you can find The Recombobulation Area podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Here’s this episode, embedded below:

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Get more from Dan Shafer in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

Folks, tonight is the night. Spend Election Night with the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” LIVE from downtown Milwaukee.

The live broadcast will feature of UpNorthNews, of “The Dr. Kristin Lyerly Show,” of Motherhood for Good, Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area (hey, that’s me!), and special guests.

You can find us here on Substack, on YouTube, and on the UpNorthNews Facebook page.

To tune in right here on Substack, find us at the link below (or here).

You can find us on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel here.

For any news from the evening, I’ll be planning to share any updates on the livestream first, and also on my Substack notes page and Twitter account.

Beyond the governor’s race, we’ll be monitoring Wisconsin’s congressional races as well as downballot races in the state legislature.

Let’s recombobulate, Wisconsin!

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.

Subscribe now

It’s hard to even put into words how much this election means for the state of Wisconsin.

This is a true everything-on-the-line, fork-in-the-road election for this state. The first open race for governor in 16 years. The first time in a generation where either party could realistically win control of the Wisconsin State Legislature — and the voters will be the ones to decide. A Democratic trifecta — control of the Senate, Assembly, and governorship — is very much in play.

This is a moment for a new Wisconsin.

Sixteen years is a long time. Republicans have controlled the state legislature for 16 years, and quite simply, they have not delivered for the state of Wisconsin. It’s time for a change.

While this state has had a Democratic governor for eight years, there’s a reason that so many praise Tony Evers as being a great “goalie.” His powerful veto pen has done tremendously important work over the last eight years, but because Republicans have controlled the legislature throughout his time as governor, he was never really able to advance an agenda.

Now is the opportunity to flip the script and play some offense. To enact good policy on everything from health care to public education to local government to child care to gun safety to abortion rights to marijuana legalization to voting rights and the foundational elements of our democracy.

That can only happen if Democrats win up and down the ballot. Every vote matters. Every Senate race matters. Every Assembly race matters. Every statewide office — State Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General — matters.

Today is the day we can slam the door shut on the despicable Robin Vos era once and for all. To put an end to “divide and conquer.” To chart a new course forward for Wisconsin, while also finding some back-to-basics, take-care-of-your-neighbor simplicity that’s been missing from our politics.

David Crowley is the right candidate to be at the top of the ticket to help shepherd in this new era. He is a bridge-builder at his core, and that is exactly what’s needed in Wisconsin to reset our politics after this endlessly divisive time that Republicans brought upon the state beginning at the last fork-in-the-road moment for the state in 2010.

We’ve been covering David Crowley and his rise in Milwaukee for quite some time here at The Recombobulation Area. We’ve been covering the legislature, The Gerrymander, the Democratic primary, and the election-by-election effort to turn the tide in Wisconsin’s state politics. It’s all coming together tonight. It’s time to recombobulate this great state.

Be sure to vote.

But take it a step beyond that. Go ahead and be that annoying politics person in your group chat and get everyone you know to vote, too. Tell your neighbors. Tell your friends. Tell your family. We need everyone to be part of this moment. We’re doing this together. You’re going to want to say you were there for this moment.

We’ll see you back here when the polls close for our live show at 8 p.m.

Let’s recombobulate Wisconsin.

ICYMI: See highlights of our coverage from the last few weeks, and make plans to join us for LIVE ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE with the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat.”

Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend.

Give a gift subscription

Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

Get 30% off a group subscription

Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer.